From Hal McCoy:

He handicaps Owings as the favorite (2:1), Bailey (5:1) [though he does credit Bailey for the biggest turnaround (on and off the field) that he’s seen in 37 years, Masset (10:1), Ramirez (50:1), Thompson (100:1).

But his most interesting comments concern Johnny Cueto:

NOW, I HAVE a question for you? All we’ve heard is that the Reds are looking for only the No. 5 spot in the rotation. My question is: Why is Johnny Cueto a for-sure? Why should he be?

Yes, he has great stuff. But he was 9-14 in 31 starts for the Reds last year with a 4.81 ERA. Why should that guarantee him anything?

And now he is gone, off to pitch for the Dominican Republic in the World Baseball Classic. He pitched three innings for the DR in an exhibition game against Baltimore and was the loser, giving up three runs and five hits.

What if Owings and Bailey continue to pitch with aplomb this spring and Cueto doesn’t? What iff Cueto comes back and gets banged around?

Shouldn’t the team consider making Owings No. 4 and Bailey No. 5?

So, a kid is the Reds #4 starter for a complete season, at 22 years old. And he should possibly be replaced based on ST numbers? What do you think?