The ZiPS projections are out for the 2009 Reds, and they’re very interesting. First, the commentary:
While Walt Jocketty made a complete botch of the outfield situation, the Reds aren’t really as bad as some people are making the team out to play. Yes, the offense should be mediocre, but the Reds are at the point at which the pitching is a solid, not spectacular, plus, and there are still a few good players, especially Jay Bruce who ZiPS absolutely loves.
And make no mistake about it, it was quite a botching. The team replaced Dunn by signing Taveras and allegedly having Hopper split time with Dickerson in left. Yes, Jay Bruce is a better rightfielder than a centerfielder, but so’s everyone else and he played quite well in the majors defensively in center. Bruce in center and a couple of the random below-average corner outfielders they have hanging around is a much better outfield than any configuration that has Taveras starting and Hopper getting way too many, courtesy of the Dust.
Jocketty (and the Reds fanbase) may prefer the Reds to be a team of slapping swifties, but … we have ample evidence that making decisions based on the conditions you want rather than the conditions you have doesn’t usually turn out that well. The Reds play in an environment in which you need a lot of runs to win and having 2/3 of an outfield that looks like a 1920s Braves outfield doesn’t strike me as a great idea.
Indeed. Below the jump, I’ll post the projected stats. Pay particular attention to Jay Bruce’s line, which I would love to see. Also notice that Joey Votto projects as an average 1B in 2009, but a “Very Good” corner outfielder. Very interesting….
Check it all out below (plus go to the original post for more interesting stuff about some of the individual Reds, including Bruce, Harang, and Volquez):
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CATCHERS
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Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS OPS+ RNG
AVERAGE
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Ramon Hernandez c 33 .263 .326 .418 125 433 49 114 23 1 14 71 35 70 1 1 91 Av
FAIR
Javier Valentin# c 33 .261 .322 .406 70 138 13 36 8 0 4 20 13 22 0 0 87 Fr
Ryan Hanigan c 28 .260 .338 .338 97 308 36 80 12 0 4 31 32 48 1 1 76 Av
POOR
Wilkin Castillo# c 25 .254 .287 .346 129 456 45 116 22 1 6 43 18 63 9 7 63 Vg
Craig Tatum c 26 .225 .266 .356 103 365 32 82 18 0 10 47 20 87 1 2 59 Fr
Chris Kroski* c 27 .209 .258 .330 36 115 9 24 5 0 3 10 6 27 0 0 51 Av
Devin Mesoraco c 21 .219 .251 .330 85 324 21 71 9 0 9 36 13 86 2 4 49 Fr
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FIRST BASEMEN
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Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS OPS+ RNG
AVERAGE
Joey Votto* 1b 25 .280 .353 .490 158 567 71 159 34 2 27 92 63 124 12 7 115 Av
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FAIR
Kevin Barker* 1b 33 .249 .328 .434 114 410 55 102 22 0 18 66 48 111 1 1 95 Av
POOR
Jeff Keppinger 2b 29 .291 .343 .384 123 461 54 134 24 2 5 44 36 26 3 2 88 Av
Wes Bankston 1b 25 .260 .303 .436 111 415 51 108 20 1 17 64 23 88 2 2 88 Av
Javier Valentin# c 33 .261 .322 .406 70 138 13 36 8 0 4 20 13 22 0 0 87 Fr
Adam Rosales 1b 26 .244 .301 .414 121 442 60 108 24 3 15 53 28 96 7 3 83 Av
Ryan Hanigan c 28 .260 .338 .338 97 308 36 80 12 0 4 31 32 48 1 1 76 Av
Todd Frazier ss 23 .240 .293 .405 144 555 70 133 24 1 22 71 40 155 9 8 78 Av
Luis Bolivar# 2b 28 .237 .283 .353 108 334 41 79 14 2 7 31 18 77 12 4 64 Av
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SECOND BASEMEN
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Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS OPS+ RNG
AVERAGE
Brandon Phillips 2b 28 .268 .320 .440 154 605 87 162 28 5 22 80 41 104 25 7 94 Vg
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FAIR
Jeff Keppinger 2b 29 .291 .343 .384 123 461 54 134 24 2 5 44 36 26 3 2 88 Av
Danny Richar* 2b 26 .258 .311 .417 136 508 70 131 25 4 16 63 38 97 11 5 86 Fr
Jerry Hairston Jr. ss 33 .272 .333 .405 57 158 25 43 10 1 3 16 12 27 5 2 90 Fr
POOR
Adam Rosales 1b 26 .244 .301 .414 121 442 60 108 24 3 15 53 28 96 7 3 83 Pr
Drew Anderson* 2b 26 .239 .282 .389 158 581 71 139 30 6 15 69 33 137 8 5 71 Fr
Paul Janish ss 26 .228 .293 .347 131 447 50 102 21 1 10 46 35 89 5 2 65 Vg
Luis Bolivar# 2b 28 .237 .283 .353 108 334 41 79 14 2 7 31 18 77 12 4 64 Fr
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THIRD BASEMEN
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Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS OPS+ RNG
VERY GOOD
Edwin Encarnacion 3b 26 .272 .354 .481 145 507 76 138 32 1 24 78 55 102 4 1 113 Fr
FAIR
Jeff Keppinger 2b 29 .291 .343 .384 123 461 54 134 24 2 5 44 36 26 3 2 88 Av
Wes Bankston 1b 25 .260 .303 .436 111 415 51 108 20 1 17 64 23 88 2 2 88 Pr
Jerry Hairston Jr. ss 33 .272 .333 .405 57 158 25 43 10 1 3 16 12 27 5 2 90 Av
POOR
Adam Rosales 1b 26 .244 .301 .414 121 442 60 108 24 3 15 53 28 96 7 3 83 Pr
Todd Frazier ss 23 .240 .293 .405 144 555 70 133 24 1 22 71 40 155 9 8 78 Fr
Drew Anderson* 2b 26 .239 .282 .389 158 581 71 139 30 6 15 69 33 137 8 5 71 Fr
Juan Francisco# 3b 22 .238 .259 .419 144 589 56 140 24 1 27 87 16 163 5 5 71 Fr
Paul Janish ss 26 .228 .293 .347 131 447 50 102 21 1 10 46 35 89 5 2 65 Vg
Luis Bolivar# 2b 28 .237 .283 .353 108 334 41 79 14 2 7 31 18 77 12 4 64 Av
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SHORTSTOPS
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Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS OPS+ RNG
AVERAGE
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Jeff Keppinger 2b 29 .291 .343 .384 123 461 54 134 24 2 5 44 36 26 3 2 88 Pr
FAIR
Danny Richar* 2b 26 .258 .311 .417 136 508 70 131 25 4 16 63 38 97 11 5 86 Pr
Jerry Hairston Jr. ss 33 .272 .333 .405 57 158 25 43 10 1 3 16 12 27 5 2 90 Fr
Sea Bass Gonzalez ss 32 .258 .313 .407 63 221 28 57 13 1 6 27 13 42 1 1 84 Av
Adam Rosales 1b 26 .244 .301 .414 121 442 60 108 24 3 15 53 28 96 7 3 83 Pr
Chris Valaika ss 23 .258 .290 .409 148 594 65 153 25 1 21 82 24 127 6 7 78 Fr
Todd Frazier ss 23 .240 .293 .405 144 555 70 133 24 1 22 71 40 155 9 8 78 Fr
POOR
Paul Janish ss 26 .228 .293 .347 131 447 50 102 21 1 10 46 35 89 5 2 65 Av
Luis Bolivar# 2b 28 .237 .283 .353 108 334 41 79 14 2 7 31 18 77 12 4 64 Fr
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CORNER OUTFIELDERS
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Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS OPS+ LF RF
VERY GOOD
Joey Votto* 1b 25 .280 .353 .490 158 567 71 159 34 2 27 92 63 124 12 7 115 Av Av
Jay Bruce* rf 22 .276 .328 .522 158 613 94 169 32 4 37 98 48 163 10 8 115 Vg Vg
AVERAGE
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Jonny Gomes rf 28 .239 .337 .478 104 318 50 76 18 2 18 49 39 101 8 4 108 Fr Fr
FAIR
Laynce Nix* rf 28 .259 .311 .492 111 378 49 98 18 2 22 61 25 103 4 1 103 Fr Fr
Daniel Dorn* lf 24 .249 .310 .471 111 410 56 102 20 1 23 70 31 98 3 1 98 Fr Fr
POOR
Darnell McDonald lf 30 .267 .323 .415 122 465 61 124 26 2 13 56 37 104 19 5 89 Av Av
Jeff Keppinger 2b 29 .291 .343 .384 123 461 54 134 24 2 5 44 36 26 3 2 88 Av Av
Chris Dickerson* cf 27 .235 .317 .413 140 494 70 116 22 6 18 60 56 171 25 7 87 Av Av
Jerry Hairston Jr. ss 33 .272 .333 .405 57 158 25 43 10 1 3 16 12 27 5 2 90 Av Av
Adam Rosales 1b 26 .244 .301 .414 121 442 60 108 24 3 15 53 28 96 7 3 83 Av Av
Chris Heisey rf 24 .245 .299 .373 149 579 73 142 28 2 14 59 38 101 24 4 73 Av Av
Norris Hopper lf 30 .290 .333 .333 69 207 27 60 7 1 0 9 13 21 7 3 74 Vg Vg
Todd Frazier ss 23 .240 .293 .405 144 555 70 133 24 1 22 71 40 155 9 8 78 Av
Sean Henry lf 23 .250 .302 .385 135 520 64 130 22 3 14 61 35 96 17 11 76 Av Av
Drew Anderson* 2b 26 .239 .282 .389 158 581 71 139 30 6 15 69 33 137 8 5 71 Av
Juan Francisco# 3b 22 .238 .259 .419 144 589 56 140 24 1 27 87 16 163 5 5 71 Av
Drew Stubbs cf 24 .228 .292 .353 141 549 67 125 26 2 13 49 48 151 24 13 66 Vg Vg
Luis Bolivar# 2b 28 .237 .283 .353 108 334 41 79 14 2 7 31 18 77 12 4 64 Av Av
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CENTERFIELDERS
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Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS OPS+ RNG
VERY GOOD
Jay Bruce* rf 22 .276 .328 .522 158 613 94 169 32 4 37 98 48 163 10 8 115 Vg
AVERAGE
Laynce Nix* rf 28 .259 .311 .492 111 378 49 98 18 2 22 61 25 103 4 1 103 Pr
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FAIR
Darnell McDonald lf 30 .267 .323 .415 122 465 61 124 26 2 13 56 37 104 19 5 89 Fr
Chris Dickerson* cf 27 .235 .317 .413 140 494 70 116 22 6 18 60 56 171 25 7 87 Fr
Jerry Hairston Jr. ss 33 .272 .333 .405 57 158 25 43 10 1 3 16 12 27 5 2 90 Fr
POOR
Chris Heisey rf 24 .245 .299 .373 149 579 73 142 28 2 14 59 38 101 24 4 73 Av
Norris Hopper lf 30 .290 .333 .333 69 207 27 60 7 1 0 9 13 21 7 3 74 Av
Willy Taveras cf 27 .272 .318 .331 125 475 70 129 16 3 2 29 32 73 48 10 71 Av
Sean Henry lf 23 .250 .302 .385 135 520 64 130 22 3 14 61 35 96 17 11 76 Pr
Drew Stubbs cf 24 .228 .292 .353 141 549 67 125 26 2 13 49 48 151 24 13 66 Vg
* - Bats Left
# - Switch Hitter
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STARTERS
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Name Age ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K ERA+
TOP THIRD
Edinson Volquez 25 3.97 12 11 32 32 181.1 166 80 19 85 180 117
MIDDLE THIRD
Aaron Harang 31 4.46 11 12 32 31 204.0 212 101 32 51 184 104
Bronson Arroyo 32 4.62 11 14 33 33 202.2 215 104 30 64 161 101
Johnny Cueto 23 4.78 9 13 30 30 169.1 176 90 28 55 151 97
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Ben Jukich* 26 5.11 6 10 26 26 144.1 163 82 17 56 79 91
Micah Owings 26 5.12 6 9 26 23 133.2 142 76 19 51 106 90
BOTTOM THIRD
Ramon A. Ramirez 26 5.36 5 10 35 22 139.1 144 83 27 64 116 86
Jordan Smith 23 5.58 6 11 23 23 119.1 144 74 19 34 56 83
Matthew Maloney* 25 5.77 7 13 26 26 146.2 163 94 28 63 107 81
Homer Bailey 23 5.83 5 12 25 25 132.2 150 86 22 68 93 80
Sam Lecure 25 6.12 5 11 25 25 132.1 158 90 25 57 80 76
Adam Pettyjohn* 32 6.27 5 14 28 23 145.0 181 101 32 43 75 74
Daryl Thompson 23 6.51 4 12 24 24 123.0 150 89 32 39 74 71
James Avery 25 7.11 4 13 25 25 130.1 169 103 32 55 63 65
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RELIEVERS
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Name Age ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K ERA+
TOP THIRD
Arthur Rhodes* 39 3.46 4 2 57 0 39.0 35 15 1 21 42 134
Francisco Cordero 34 3.48 6 3 69 0 67.1 58 26 6 30 79 134
MIDDLE THIRD
David Weathers 39 4.14 5 4 67 0 67.1 69 31 7 29 45 111
Bill Bray* 26 4.18 3 3 61 0 56.0 56 26 7 25 58 110
Robert Manuel 25 4.23 4 4 40 5 83.0 88 39 9 20 57 109
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Jared Burton 28 4.28 4 4 54 0 61.0 60 29 7 29 52 107
Danny Herrera* 24 4.34 4 5 43 2 64.1 67 31 7 21 47 105
Kent Mercker* 41 4.45 1 1 38 0 30.1 32 15 4 12 19 104
Josh Roenicke 26 4.63 3 4 57 0 56.1 57 29 7 29 49 99
Mike Lincoln 34 4.68 3 4 59 0 65.1 66 34 10 23 55 99
Carlos Fisher 26 4.70 5 6 52 0 69.0 72 36 7 32 51 99
Nick Masset 27 4.76 2 3 33 7 73.2 83 39 8 29 50 97
Aaron Fultz* 35 4.83 2 2 34 0 31.2 34 17 4 15 26 96
Matt Belisle 29 4.87 5 7 33 13 101.2 117 55 13 24 64 96
BOTTOM THIRD
Jon Adkins 31 5.25 2 4 57 0 61.2 72 36 9 19 32 88
Pedro Viola* 26 5.33 3 6 49 4 77.2 84 46 12 35 54 88
Ron Flores* 29 5.40 3 6 55 0 56.2 62 34 8 31 41 85
Justin Mallett 27 6.09 3 6 32 11 85.2 100 58 16 42 53 76
Jeff Kennard 27 6.48 2 7 45 0 66.2 81 48 12 35 39 72
* - Throws Left
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Let’s hope the reality is not as grim as his projections.
I still se Dunn’s dismissal as a salary dump. Hence, it was inevitable tht the outfiled would be weaker. You can’t replace one player with another with a track record of comparable performance without paying pretty much the same.
I agree they’re going with an outfiled that seems to have one wing and a couple of prayers, but the die was cast when the decision to dump Dunn was made. More clever people would have begun looking for and acquiring replacement outfielders a year or so Dunn’s departure. But, MLB isn’t running with its full share of clever people.
It looks like they are pretty good when it comes to veteran players which are obviuosly the easiest to project (Hernandez, Phillips, Encarnacion, Cordero, Rhodes would seem about right) but I am not so sure on their process for young guys.
As they say offensively it uses, “Weighted recent years.” How do you do that with a guy like Dickerson. Or even the outfield defense of Votto. Where does a track record come from there, 50 games in the minors? And, if Lance Nix could do what they project him to do why would he be still trying to make a big leeague team at age 28?
And if you feel the numbers for players he likes like Jay Bruce are inflated then how can you count on the rest? Maybe he likes Nix and dislikes Dickerson.
Jocketty brought Taveras in, but Dusty will develop a crush on him and bat him leadoff even if hes’ hitting .200.
EE should be in the outfield. The guy cannot play third. I like him, but I sweat every time a ball is hit his way. It’s like the feeling I get when Weathers comes in.
One thing that troubles me a little bit is the fact that Taveras has played on two World Series teams as leadoff hitter, but didn’t stick. I know it is his anemic numbers that cause teams to pink slip him – I get all of that. It’s just that he played on teams that won a lot of games, and they did well with him leading off.
What gives? Is there something the stats don’t tell us?
Nice! I’m very optimistic.
I definitely like EdE’s line and when you think about it, he may be the key to the whole thing.
Expecting Bruce to hit 37 HRs may be a stretch but doubt doubt fun to think about.
Also, some of Phillips’ projections seem a little low to me.
Right on River City!