Who are they? Chad Dotson 12/30/2008 40 PLAYER A 3414 AB 0.378 OBP 0.251 ISO 203 HR 134 OPS+ 676 RBI PLAYER B 3871 AB 0.381 OBP 0.271 ISO 278 HR 130 OPS+ 672 RBI Here’s the answer, if you haven’t guessed already. Share this:TweetPocket 40 Responses NickP 12/30/2008 That’s a pretty terrible article. Honestly, I donÃ¢â‚¬â„¢t know what the rationale is behind the perceived differences between these two guys. Maybe it has something to do with Teixeira delivering on the promise he showed when the Rangers drafted him with the 5th overall pick in 2001 out of Georgia State, handing him a $4.5 signing bonus to go with his major league contract. Yeah, or maybe Teixeira is a 0 to +10 defender, while Dunn is a -5 to -15 defender. There’s probably at least a 2 win gap b/w Dunn and Teix due to their defense, which is about $10 million per year on the FA market. jasons 12/30/2008 The endless man love for Adam Dunn on this board is starting to disturb me. If all of the MLB evaluators are this lukewarm about aquiring Dun’s services, I would think some of you might take that as a sign that you have him on a bit of a pedestal. But I guess whatever arcane number crunching you are using to justify your beliefs are more reliable to you than all of the expertise in MLB. Chad 12/30/2008 I didn’t say they were equal players. I was just surprised how close the numbers were. And while Adam Dunn isn’t the best player in the majors, he’s a heckuva lot more productive at the plate than many of the mouthbreathers want to admit. NickP 12/30/2008 Chad: I’m not trying to take anything away from Dunn. He was my favorite Red and very productive with the stick. But the problem is that you’re not paying Dunn just to hit. He has to field also. That’s where the comparison breaks down. KY Chip 12/30/2008 I immediately recognized the second stat line as Dunn’s. Guess that’s a sign of my continuing ‘bro-mance’ with the Big Donkey. But, yeah, the article does leave out a few telling stats, such as fielding, strikeouts, and how much they piss off Marty Brennaman. The lukewarm attitude toward Dunn this off-season has been more than just teams not wanting to take a chance on him — there’s been several more valuable big name/big money Free Agents that the teams with cash to spend were all pursuing early in the off-season. Now that several of those names are out of the pool, Dunn will certainly be receiving much more interest. You could also call it looking for January bargains or seeing how much the market’s willing to bear in our current financial situation. Of course, by jasons argument, though, Manny Ramirez must also suck as badly as Dunn. As for the original post, though, it’s too bad there wasn’t a third stat line of the combined career stats of the Reds’ prospective LF for 2009 — Dickerson, Hopper, and the guy selling Frosty Malts in Section 135. Then we could really see how we’ll be replacing Dunner this coming year. bweav44 12/30/2008 The RBI comparison was eye opening. Still, comparing Dunn to Tex without the discussion of defense is faulty. Dunner should have been playing 1st base for the last four years, but never had the heart or fortitude to really apply himself. His lack of work ethic is what infuriates me, and makes me very glad he’s gone. If he ever really applied himself and tried to shore up his weaknesses, he could’ve been a top tier star. As of now, he’s Dave Kingman and always will be. Scott 12/30/2008 I agree with Nick, and add that Dunn’s profile doesn’t age as well Teixeira. In addition, 1B is a slightly more premium position and you can understand the difference between them. However, I agree with Chad that he is better than many poeple make him out to be. Why an American League team hasn’t picked him up on the cheap is completely beyond me. (Tampa, I’m looking at you) RedsFan56 12/30/2008 Marty is exactly right. So was JP Ricciardi. Thank god Dunn is no longer a Red. RedsFan56 12/30/2008 Stats he conveniently left out: Career BA RISP Tex – .324 Dunn – .225 Career BA RISP w/2 Outs Tex – .291 Dunn – .214 David 12/30/2008 “The RBI comparison was eye opening.” Was it? Dunn has 4 less RBI in 450 more ABs. That is eye opening. To me that’s a product of production with runners in scoring position. Over the past three years Tex hit .331/.463/.579 with 232 RBI in 456 ABs. Dunn hit .234/.405/.483 with 180 RBI in 410 ABs. Dunn may get on base as much as Tex but when you draw a walk with runners in scoring position it doesn’t plate the runner. That’s where AVG is more telling than OBP. Don’t forget that Tex is a switch hitter which is a tremendous asset. Oh yeah and the Gold Gloves don’t hurt either. Chad 12/30/2008 Yeah, you’ll notice that I specifically said “at the plate” in my comment. Though Dunn was average defensively in 2008, according to all the metrics, and that was an improvement. No one’s calling him a Gold Glover, though. The comparison to Dave Kingman is just silly, and deserving of no further discussion. And the fact that Dunn DID improve defensively seems to be a data point against the notion that he didn’t work hard to improve. Plus the fact that the big guy played every day, even when hurt. Yeah, if I were Tampa, I’d be falling all over myself to get him while the market is kinda thin. He played 1B, LF, and RF last year for Arizona, and he is definitely suited to DH. He could be valuable to an AL club. Chad 12/30/2008 Thank god Dunn is no longer a Red. Long live Willy Taveras! 🙂 Y-City Jim 12/30/2008 I don’t think there is any doubt that Tex is a much better player than Dunn but I do get tired of seeing the unsubstantiated comments regarding Dunn’s attitude, willingness to play 1B, lack of leadership, etc. John 12/30/2008 Man, I get tired of the anti-Dunn rhetoric. That noise is a product of willful ignorance. People simply don’t want to acknowledge that he put up monster numbers, year after year. They focus on his strikeouts, defense, and RISP numbers, but won’t look at OBP, RBI (which would’ve been higher if other Reds could get on base ahead of him). No one is saying Dunn is Albert Pujols. But for Cincinnati, that’s as close as this town’s likely to see. Enter Willy Taveras as an “upgrade.” All of this could’ve been solved if the Reds brass thought a little more outside the box with regard to moving players to other positions. Dunn should’ve been at 1B years ago, but I don’t see any evidence that work ethic was the reason. I see terrible decisions on the part of management. As much as I liked having Scott Hatteberg, they didn’t need him. They could’ve moved Dunn to 1B after Casey left. They could’ve signed a LF three years ago. Or they could’ve groomed Votto for LF a bit more. They didn’t. But yeah, I guess Dunn is the reason they’ve sucked all these years. Not, you know, the parade of Dan Serafinis and Jimmy Andersons, or the re-upping man-love for Juan Castro, or the endless shitty 5-tool players. Nope. Dunn. GregD 12/30/2008 RBI It’s not just about Dunn’s OBP. It’s about the players who get on base (or don’t get on base) in front of Dunn. It’s primarily driven by two factors: (1) Brandon Phillips low OBP and (2) Dunn’s spot in the batting order has him leading off an inning a lot. Second on the team only to the leadoff hitter. It boils down to opportunity in a lot of comparisons of Dunn vs. another player. Similar to the comparison I posted last week vs. Ryan Howard, Dunn had a lot fewer opportunities than Teixiera: 2008 Teix had 360 of 685 PA’s with runners on (53% of his PAs) there were 503 runners on base during Teix’s 2008 PAs Dunn had 283 of 651 PA’s with runners on (43% of his PAs) there were 408 runners on base during Dunn’s 2008 PAs Phill 12/30/2008 Redsfan56, stats you conviently left out: Career OBP w/RISP: Texiera-.442 Dunn-.416 Career OBP w/RISP & 2-outs: Texiera-.425 Dunn-.440 I know I know walks don’t matter and he strikes out but seriously even when Dunn is slumping he can still produce. I’m not comparing his hitting or fielding to Texiera I’m just stating that Dunn was a really really good player despite what people think. While I do think the man-love relationship with Dunn on here is a bit over the top it proves necessary considering how many people, mostly Reds fans, hate Dunn and try to find reasons to excuse hatred…..usually ending in Batting Average and Strikeouts or the mythical Dunn quotes about what he won’t do or how much he doesn’t care. Dan 12/30/2008 Hey… I just had a semi-optimistic thought that is semi-related to this thread… There are a lot of good hitters on the FA market — Dunn, Bradley, Burrell, Abreu, Manny… am I forgetting any? Time is marching on now. The interest in some of them has been slow. One by one they’ll sign… but someone will be the last one (or two) left, and will be sweating it at that point. Any chance Walt is waiting to let the market fall out from under one or two of these guys, and then get a late good signing? If that’s the plan, then I’m impressed. (If Willy Taveras is really the answer to our OF woes, then I am very very unimpressed and have very little hope in the current regime.) Come on, Walt! Impress and surprise us! (I, for one, would love to see Milton Bradley here, playing LF, and then Dickerson platooning in CF with Taveras.) David 12/30/2008 I think most fans, as well as many people on this board, don’t consider Dunn’s perhaps reluctance to stay in Cincinnati. People usually clamor about the REDS failing to sign him, the REDS trading him, etc. Do you ever stop to consider that perhaps Adam Dunn did NOT want to be a Red? We simply don’t know what talks were held and what was said between the parties. Dunn likely could have told Cincinnati that he wanted to test the waters in FA, that he was looking for a certain figure, and that he wanted a change of scenery for a chance to play for a contender. At that point, if you are Cincinnati you HAVE to deal Dunn, and I give Jocketty a lot of credit for having the stones to deal two fan favorites in Griffey and Dunn. Don’t get me wrong, I don’t think there is any question that he is a good player, but Dunn is replaceable. He’s not a five tool player. He compares well to a poor man’s Jim Thome, and the production will likely be replaced in the form of Jay Bruce or Joey Votto – each guy has a chance to hit 30-35 HRs and 100 RBI. David 12/30/2008 PS – Phil OBP is a totally useless stat when it comes to RISP. Walks (unless the bases are loaded) don’t drive in runs. In the past three years done has just 7 walks with the bases loaded. So that great OBP has produced just 7 more runs with RISP. My own game of who are they: Over the past three years with RISP Player A) 440 AB .275/.342/.434, 178 RBI Player B) 410 AB .234/.405/.483, 180 RBI Player A is Brandon Phillips and Player B is Adam Dunn. David 12/30/2008 Dunn* RedsFan56 12/30/2008 ***IÃ¢â‚¬â„¢m just stating that Dunn was a really really good player despite what people think.*** Hey Phill….no he isn’t, relative to what he’s been paid. He’s one of the worst values in baseball. And concerning your OBP stats….guys like Tex & Dunn aren’t paid to take a walk with RISP. They’re paid to drive them in…like Marty stated. Dunn is simply not a winning ballplayer when you factor salary vs. on-the-field value. And to the poster above who used the word “hate”. That’s weak….hopefully you can make post without resorting to that next time. RedsFan56 12/30/2008 ***Long live Willy Taveras!*** Hey Chad…..one has nothing to do with the other. Taveras isn’t replacing Dunn, he’s replacing Patterson. If he does anything at all, he’ll be an upgrade.. Give me a guy who will hit a line-drive with the game on the line…unlike AD who stands up there hoping for a BB. He’s paid BIG BUCKS to drive in runs…not pass the buck to the next guy (EdE) who’s making 10% of his salary. KY Chip 12/30/2008 Dan, I certainly hope you’re right in that the Reds front office is waiting for a bargain bat for LF. However, let me edit your list a little bit — Burrell. And only if he takes a huge pay cut. Bradley, Ramirez, and Abreu will all command a higher dollar value than the Reds will be willing (or able) to give, even if it is a bargain basement price. And we all know after jettisoning Dunn, there’s no way he’s back in a Reds uniform next year. Considering what’s left in free agency, I think they’re down to Burrell, perhaps Wigginton or Baldelli, and that’s it. Jocketty might swing a surprise trade for a big RBI bat for LF, but that would likely mean giving up some of their young pitching. Another OF (or two) will have to be added to the 40-man in the coming weeks. I shudder to think we’d start February with Bruce, Taveras, Hopper, and Dickerson as our only OFs. bweav44 12/30/2008 IS the Dave Kingman comparison that silly? Dunn’s better sure. His OBP is much better than Kingman’s, so his runs scored are better. My point is he’s closer to Kingman than Ryan Howard. If he gave half a crap, he could’ve worked on using more of the whole field. He could’ve elevated his production at the plate. (He could even given us below average first base defense too). Please don’t defend his work ethic with defensive metrics. Dunn’s a DH. David 12/30/2008 Why is Ramirez out of the picture? What if the Reds offered a one year highly incentive based contract to Ramirez which could net him as much as $35 million? $12 million base. + $2 million for every .010 OBP above .350 (career avg adds 6 mil); + $2 million for every .010 AVG above .300 (career avg adds 2 mil); + $2 for every post season game; etc., etc. You could even add a vesting option in the 22 million range if he reaches certain incentives, then deal him. Such a deal could allow him to earn more than A Rod, fill a need for the Reds, keep him on his best behavior, and provide financial flexibility if there are any problems. GregD 12/30/2008 Please don’t attack his work ethic without proof that he didn’t give “half a crap”. From the interviews I’ve seen him give, you’re wrong on the work ethic front. David 12/30/2008 The reason people think he didn’t care is because emotionally he went about his business even keeled. He didn’t get upset when he struck out, he didn’t get excited when he hit a bomb, and I can count the number of times on one hand I ever saw him boisterous. That gives the impression that he is just “ho-hum” about the game. I’m not saying that’s what he FEELS but that’s what is DISPLAYED. Statistically from 2204-2008, he was as even keeled from 2004-2008. He’s always aroung .240, OBP always around .380, 40 HRs, 100 RBI, 110 BB, 170 K. His defensive stats stayed about the same too. When your deficiencies never improve it makes it seem like you aren’t working on them. I think Dunn tried but went back to “I am what I am – which is pretty darn good.” Phill 12/30/2008 Comparable stats between Adam Dunn and Dave Kingman: In 16 seasons Kingman had a total of 901 runs scored. In 8 seasons Dunn has a total of 699 In 16 seasons Kingman had a total of 1575 hits In 8 seasons Dunn has a total of 955 hits In 16 seasons Kingman hit 442 home runs In 8 seasons Dunn has hit 278 home runs In 16 seasons Kingman had 608 walks In 8 seasons Dunn has had 797 walks In 16 seasons Kingman had ZERO seasons with over 65 walks. In 8 seasons Dunn has had 6 100+ walks(5 straight) I could probably keep it going but I’m going to stop now. Dunn in HALF the amount of seasons has done better than Kingman or is on pace to surpass him in regards to offensive stats. The only and I mean ONLY common links you can find are strikeouts and batting average. That’s hardly enough to try and draw comparison. Chris 12/30/2008 What find most amusing (or infuriating, depending on my mood), is how some guys bitch and moan endlessly about stat geeks, and how numbers don’t show anything, etc. . . . then promptly recite batting average, RBI, or some random-ass situational stat, as if that settles the issue. Dopes like Marty Brennaman are no better. If something was important – or hell, even talked about in 1973, it’s essential. If it wasn’t around when he was sharing a Vitalis bottle with Pete Rose, it’s strictly for geeks. Like the warden in Shawshank, some people are willfully obtuse. Phill 12/30/2008 I think the problem lies with the using stats and stat geeks is when you get into the insane equations to figure stuff out. I for one can’t understand half the more sabremetric stats out there. I think that with people(especially older ones) the idea of something that they can’t grasp the only thing to do is write it off. People like things they can figure out themselves without needing a mathmatics degree. I know you don’t actually need one to learn about new stats it’s just much easier to stick with basics. Phill 12/30/2008 I hit submit a little too early but an example for me would be VORP. I fully understand what it is supposed to tell you. The specific persons value over replacement player. I know the higher the better. I don’t have a clue how you come up with the stats for an imaginary replacement player other than replacement is 0.0. Since I don’t understand this I just tend not to bother with it and on occasion I’ll dismiss it. Chris 12/31/2008 I understand what you’re saying, Phill. I’ve always said – enjoy baseball however you want. What I don’t understand is why some people feel the need to lash out when they don’t understand something, or just because it conflicts with that they believed before. Putting one’s head in the sand isn’t going to make OBP less important, or pitcher’s wins any more meaningful. pinson343 12/31/2008 The comparison of Dunn with Kingman is inane. Kingman’s career OBP was barely over .300. I saw Kingman play a lot in NY, and his defense made Dunn look like a Gold Glover. Kingman was also sullen and often nasty to fans. Where does the observation that Dunn is lazy come from ? I have never heard a member of the Reds organization – player, coach, manager, scout, whoever – say he was not a hard worker. I have heard many say he is a hard worker. A man that size chasing after a fly ball can look clumsy, and people conclude he’s lazy. It’s just plain wrong. As a teenager I often looked clumsy chasing after a fly ball, and I worked my butt off. bweav44 12/31/2008 Interviews? I heard Dunn say a couple of years ago in response to a question about whether he worked on improving his defense in the offseason “that’s what spring training is for”. You can’t play the outfield at 270-280 pounds. No wonder he had knee problems. He and Harang have the same problems with their frames. Those guys have to work to keep the weight down, or you’re going to see more back and knee problems develop if they don’t. He could hit just as many homers at 250 pounds and his overall game would be much better, but that takes a lot of want to. I never saw that out of him. He is a constant in the lineup and other teams are right to fear his game changing power. My frustration is deep rooted because I wanted to see him elevate his game to the top tier of players in the game. I never saw him demonstrate the will to do it. mhopp 12/31/2008 Yeah but Dunn is no Corey Patterson! He’s just not fast! GRF 12/31/2008 My very last Adam Dunn post (unless we sign him, which I think would cause this board to meltdown). I do not think you can question his offensive value. There is just too much solid research on the importance of the skills he did provide (OBP and power) as opposed to his negatives (AVG and K’s) . He may not be Teixeira (for all the reasons discussed above) but he is a top 20 offensive player and there are not many teams I can think of that would not have better offenses with him in the lineup. I also have noticed that Reds fans that live outside the area (like me) and didn’t get to see him play everyday seemed to like him a lot more than those who watched every game and saw the “lack of effort”, “lack of leadership” or “attitude issues” or whatever else you want to to call it. Whether those issues (and his admittedly bad defense) and his salary outweighed his offensive value is something we can argue forever. To me the frustrating part right now is that if you look at what the offense absolutely needs it is someone that gets on base and can hit for power from a corner outfield spot. Whatever his other flaws, Dunn could have provided those skills better than anyone still on the market and I am willing to bet at a cheaper price. I agree with Dan, I think we are all hoping that the front office is lying in wait for prices on corner outfielders drop and they can swoop in and grab someone like Burrell. Unfortunately, I am sure the agents for those players are waiting for a team to get desperate and offer a high, market setting deal. It will be interesting to see who blinks first, but history sure seems to favor the player. What I have to wonder if the Reds knew then how the market was going to develop whether they would have moved him to the Diamondbacks as opposed to making the arbitration offer. David 12/31/2008 Chris – In response to #26, I am one of the most outspoken critics of using statistical data to prove a point. I don’t want to sound arogant, but my problem is not for lack of understanding as Phil suggests. Rather I think the grand majority of “stats geeks” haven’t the foggiest clue how to analyze data in a meaningful way. As a lawyer, you should understand that it is the analysis which is the most important aspect of making a convincing argument. In a conclusory fashion, people throw out AVG, OBP, ZF, RF, SeCA, yadda, yadda, yadda and say see look so-and-so is lousy. They manipulate the raw data by suggesting there is a correlation between the data set and the point they are attempting to prove, when there is no correlation at all. For example, people throw out OBP and suggest, in a conclusory fashion, Dunn is an excellent offensive player because he has a high OBP. The same people fail to take into consideration the whole picture. For example, OBP means less with RISP than AVG. OBP means less batting 3rd than it does leading off or batting cleanup. ETC. Additionally, even when used correctly stats fail to provide a complete assessment of a players skill set. A defensive matrix may show that EdE is among the worst third defensive third basemen in the league. Stats cannot show and do not show the reasons why that is. Is it throwing or is it his glove? An error is an error and it doesn’t say how the error occurred. Same with Homer Bailey. I can give you all the stats and it doesn’t show that his changeup is released 11 inches from his fastball release. So yes, I bash stats geeks when stats geeks deserve it. Sometimes I play the Devil’s advocate to show stats geeks how moronic an argument can be made. For example when the “stat geek” throws out OBP in the leadoff spot as the indicator the Taveras signing was horrible. I can manipulate data as well as anyone and say that Taveras has the same career AVG and OBP as Jimmy Rollins and Jose Reyes, therefore Taveras is as good a leadoff hitter as Taveras and Reyes. I don’t think that but am trying to prove how ridiculous it is to rely solely on OBP in that situation. GregD 12/31/2008 “I can manipulate data as well as anyone and say that Taveras has the same career AVG and OBP as Jimmy Rollins and Jose Reyes, therefore Taveras is as good a leadoff hitter ” That is not manipulating data. THAT is not having a clue how to analyze and interpret the data, just like you complained about in the first paragraph. David 12/31/2008 Greg – That’s my entire point. When I throw stats out it is usually to show that stats can be used to show anything you want them to show. It’s a counterpoint to “OBP, OBP, OBP Taveras can’t lead off because he has a horrible OBP.” Taveras may be a bad signing but it isn’t because of OBP alone, not when Rollins and Reyes are two of the best leadoff hitters in the NL and have OBP and AVG the same as Taveras. If you’re going to make an argument that Taveras is a bad signing than do more than simply throw out stats to prove your point, or I will do the same to show how ridiculous or lacking your argument is. Travis G. 12/31/2008 OBP = the opposite of outs. I don’t understand why people are so opposed to using this stat to measure a player’s relative worth. It’s easy to understand and calculate, and it directly correlates to baseball success. Also, you wouldn’t need to manipulate the data to show that Taveras (.331), Rollins (.333) and Reyes (.336) have remarkably similar career OBP; you can just look it up. But anyone who follows baseball even a little understands that Taveras isn’t in the same class as those two other guys. Casual observation suggests that, and stats like OPS+, VORP and EqA prove it. Those less easily understood stats aren’t always counterintuitive. This, though, this is just madness: “I am one of the most outspoken critics of using statistical data to prove a point.” What exactly should a person use to prove their points? A loud voice?