Some items after a very quiet holiday week…

–Big deadline coming up that will help determine how the rest of the free agent season is going to proceed:

On Monday, teams must decide whether to offer their free agents arbitration. If receiving the offer by midnight ET, players would have until next Sunday to accept or decline.

If a player accepts, he is automatically retained by his team for one more year at a salary to be determined by an arbiter.

The deadline is especially critical for Type-A or Type-B free agents and any clubs interested in signing them. If those players are offered arbitration, their former teams would receive compensation Draft picks in return if they sign elsewhere.

The Reds have eight remaining free agents, but only reliever David Weathers was ranked under the Elias statistical ratings as a Type-B free agent.

Conditions appear favorable that Weathers will be offered arbitration. According to his agent, Weathers has attracted interest from at least six other clubs, and the Reds would receive a sandwich-round Draft pick if he departed.

You gotta think the Reds will offer arbitration to Weathers. Even if he accepts, the Reds would be on the hook for just one year at a reasonable amount. If he declines, they get a crappy draft pick, but it’s something.

–It appears that Jermaine Dye may still be in play, which doesn’t make me very happy. I don’t think he fits into what the Reds are trying to do here, but:

As for talk that the Reds could be interested in outfielder Jermaine Dye, whom the Chicago White Sox are reported to be shopping, Jocketty said:

“I’m not going to comment. But we have talked to the White Sox about some players. Nothing is close.”

The way tampering rules work, Jocketty cannot say he’s pursuing Dye. But in the case of San Diego shortstop Khalil Greene, Jocketty was comfortable shooting down the rumor.

So there’s probably some interest in Dye, a 34-year-old right-handed-hitting outfielder who hit .292 with 41 doubles, 34 home runs and 96 RBI in 154 games last season.

Just doesn’t make sense, unless you think the Reds are a player or two away from being competitive in 2009. I just can’t see how that is possible.

20 Responses

  1. Dan

    I wouldn’t call a “sandwich pick” a crappy pick at all. It’ll fall after the end of the 1st round and before the 2nd round starts — maybe in the 30’s overall.

    In exchange for an aging David Weathers, I think that’s a great deal.

    There are some good players who have come out of that portion of the draft, if memory serves. (Can someone help me out here? I don’t have a list handy.)

  2. mike

    Dye absolutely does not fit into Reds plans. He’s old (he’ll be 35) and plays average defense.

    On the other hand he has been on of the best hitting RF over the last 5 years

    RCAA RCAA PA OPS
    1 Vladimir Guerrero 207 3199 .945
    2 Bobby Abreu 176 3501 .878
    3 J.D. Drew 148 2558 .910
    4 Brian Giles 126 3307 .832
    5 Ichiro Suzuki 125 3002 .797
    6 Magglio Ordonez 106 2512 .888
    7 Gary Sheffield 79 1525 .897
    8 Jermaine Dye 72 2986 .868
    9 Nick Markakis 57 1949 .851
    10 Brad Hawpe 51 2219 .868

  3. Phill

    He’s also been probably the worst defensive RF over the last 5 years.

    Although I wonder if a trade would move him to left and leave Bruce in right.

    I don’t know I still don’t really like the trade idea at all. Especially when it involves Bailey plus one. If we’re talking Matt Maloney or Daryl Thompson plus one or two I’m fine with it but I’m not yet sold on Bailey being a bust.

  4. David

    Only the Reds, Giants and A’s remain in the hunt for Furcal. If the Reds land Furcal the deal makes sense. If the Reds do not land Furcal the deal is illogical. With Furcal and Dye the lineup looks GREAT.

    1. Furcal – SS
    2. Votto – 1B
    3. Dye – LF
    4. Bruce – RF
    5. Phillips – 2B
    6. Encarnacion – 3B
    7. Dickerson – CF
    8. Hannigan – C
    9. Pitcher

    Play around with that if you want, but the point is if Furcal and Dye are on the team then the Reds are contenders for the cost of Bailey and another prospect. Additionally, it provides time for Stubbs, Frazier, and Alonso to grow without rushing their progress. Stubbs and Frazier can easily replace (by that time) the aging Furcal and Dye.

  5. mike

    agreed I’m never going to write off a 23 year old who was once a top prospect. I do think he needs to show some progress this year then I’m going to start thinking he’s a bust

  6. GregD

    The Chicago Tribune says that the potential Dye trade is complicated by financial matters. The article mentions Bailey, Maloney and Roenicke by name, and mentions that the Sox are also looking for a backup catcher. The article did not state that all or part of these players would be part of the package for Dye or even that these were the names being discussed. Just that “the Reds have a wealth of talented pitchers” and then they list those three pitchers.

  7. GregD

    Too bad they are focused solely on the RH hitters because it looks like a more consistent and equally aged Raul Ibanez is available on the FA market…but he bats lefty.

    Why does the team NEED a RH bat in LF?

    LH
    Votto
    Bruce

    RH
    Phillips
    Encarnacion
    Likely the SS
    Hanigan if he’s the catcher

    Both
    CF platoon of Freel/Dickerson

  8. Y-City Jim

    I don’t know that Dye is the worst defense RF over the past five years but the skills are declining. He had a sharp drop in range last year, and you cannot attribute that to better help next to him in CF.

    That Tribune article made it sound very much that the White Sox are looking to “unload” Dye. I especially how they tried to make $11.5 million sound like a trivial price. I think the White Sox have to pick up a substantial part of that salary for the deal to have a chance. Also the Reds have about as much of a wealth of talented pitchers as they had an outfield glut in 2007. The pool is pretty shallow.

  9. GregD

    I think the White Sox have to pick up a substantial part of that salary for the deal to have a chance.

    Or not pick up a substantial part of the salary and accept a lesser prospect in return.

  10. Y-City Jim

    Why not just make a play for Bobby Abreu instead?

  11. preach

    David makes a good point with his lineup: we are just one or two pieces shy of competing this season. Our rotation is solid, we have an established closer (who will rebound), our bench with Keppy, Freel, Hopper et al is good. Heck, even if we can’t get Furcal but can get a healthy Gonzo back I think with the addition of Dye we can compete in this division and once you hit the post season, our rotation is sharp enough to hang in for short series. Go for the signings right now. I believe it’s worth it.

  12. mhopp

    Wow, that is bold! There is a lot of talent that is for sure but it’s unproven talent. I say pick up a righty that is a bit younger and cheaper. The value of our pitching can only get better. I think another year of seasoning the youngsters is a better idea then look where we are at mid-season.

  13. Matt McWax

    Todd Frazier was a sandwich pick if memory serves.

  14. earl

    I thought the Yanks had picked up an option on Abreu.

    While Dye shows more power, I tend to think Bobby Abreu would be a better player, as the guy stays healthy and might hit a half dozen more HRs in Cinci than old Yankee stadium.

  15. NickP

    Raul Ibanez is terribly overrated, plus we’d have to give up a pick.

  16. NickP

    Anyone who thinks he’s even an average player. His bat is a shade above average (wOBA projection .345), but his glove gives it all back and more (one of the worst defenders in the game).

  17. GregD

    I’ve not seen him play defensively, but I know he’s not known for defense. I was surprised to see that he’d played so much LF the past couple of years because I thought he was DHing. Offensively, he’s consistently been a .290/355/480 hitter in a pitcher’s ballpark while making $4-5M per year the past 5 years in Seattle. B-R.com shows him with a 120+ OPS+ the past 3 years.

    The consistency, above average offense, and low salary was appealing to me as a temporary stopgap in LF compared to the other rumor w/ the White Sox. IMO, I would find Ibanez more appealing than trading Bailey + another prospect + paying $11M+ for Jermaine Dye.

    I wasn’t aware at the time of my initial comment that he would cost the Reds a 2nd round draft pick, and I still haven’t read what his asking price is.