Reds in Winter Ball

Here is a link for viewing how all of the Reds players are faring in winter ball this off season. Below is a summary of how some of the players are doing.

The Arizona Fall League is wrapped up for Reds prospects. Sean Henry (.817 OPS), Chris Valaika (.783 OPS), and Justin Turner (.811 OPS) all had good showings. Drew Stubbs (.636 OPS) struggled.

Robert Manuel (1.98 ERA) was the only Reds pitcher to do well there. Carlos Fisher (10.80 ERA), Pedro Viola (8.20 ERA), and Sean Watson (9.95 ERA) all got beat on pretty good.

The Hawaiian Winter League is complete also. Yonder Alonso (.929 OPS) and Todd Frazier (.922 OPS) both played very well. Phil Valiquette (8.20 ERA) did not fare nearly as well.

Juan Francisco (.985 OPS and 7 BB in 100 ABs !!!!) is tearing up the Dominican Winter League. Danny Richar (.621 OPS) is struggling there. Sam Lecure has a 4.60 ERA there after four starts.

Chris Heisey (.965 OPS) and Adam Rosales (.745 OPS) are off to good starts in the Puerto Rican Winter League.

Luis Bolivar (.783 OPS) is off to a good start in the Venezuelan Winter League. Justin Mallett (3.45 ERA) and Matt Maloney (3.42 ERA) are throwing well there.

Daniel Guerrero (2.18 ERA) is off to a great start in the Mexican Pacific League.

There are some other notable Reds players in winter ball without much playing time yet. Follow their progress at the link provided above.

Rule V Draft

The Reds set their 40 man roster for the upcoming Rule V Draft by adding prospects to the 40 man roster to protect them from being drafted. They sent LHP Tyler Pelland and INF Andy Phillips outright to Triple-A Louisville. Phillips refused the assignment and is now a FA.

Purchased the contract of RHP Carlos Fisher and LHP Matt Maloney from Triple-A Louisville.

Purchased the contract of RHPs Robert Manuel and Sam Lecure from Double-A Chattanooga.

Purchased the contract of INF Juan Francisco from Single-A Sarasota. These moves are all now reflected on the Redleg Nation Big Board.

Doug Gray over at REDSMINORLEAGUES.COM has some excellent posts on what Reds prospects will be available in the draft and some interesting names of other teams’ players who are also available.

2009 Projections

Marcel and Bill James’ 2009 player projections can be found at FANGRAPHS. The Bill James projections can be found by individually searching for a player. He seems to have only projected the players more likely to be full time players’ though.

I have downloaded the Marcel projections and pulled out all the Reds players currently on the roster. I then did a quick and dirty projection for the Reds 2009 season based on runs scored and allowed using the Pythagorean Formula. The projections are let’s say, very kind to the Reds.

W L WP
83 79 0.510

The .772 OPS projected for the offense would have ranked 3rd in the NL last season and the 775 Runs scored would have ranked 5th. That’s compared to the .729 OPS and 704 Runs scored last season. These offensive numbers seem pretty overly optimistic to me. Chris Dickerson’s projected .854 OPS stands out as being the most overly optimistic offensive projection.

The 4.36 team ERA would have ranked the Reds 8th in the NL last season and the 759 Runs allowed would have ranked them 9th in the NL last season. That’s compared to the 4.55 ERA and 800 Runs allowed by Reds last season. On a quick first glance, none of the individual pitcher projections jump out at me as being unrealistic.

I hope to do the same type of thing with the ZIPS and Chone projections when they come out, and perhaps see how any player moves over the winter affect the team’s projected record.