Another brutal season for the Reds has ended and left us with nothing again but hope for next season. There are, however, legitimate reasons for hope for next season. We actually now have in place the makings of a good pitching staff and a core of talented bats.
There still remain areas for significant improvement that will have to be addressed for the Reds if they hope to put a winning team on the field for next season. Below is a position-by-position breakdown of the Reds to help us identify their needs for next season and then a list of the Reds free agents and arbitration eligible players who they will have to make decisions on this winter.
Hitting RK Pos GP AB R H 2B 3B HR TB RBI BA OBP SLG OPS 12 Reds 161 5435 700 1346 268 24 185 2217 673 .248 .321 .408 .729 NL 161 5505 730 1435 294 30 162 2275 697 .261 .331 .413 .744
Our offense ranked 12 out of 16 in the NL and we dumped our best hitter two-thirds of the way into the season. We will definitely have to add some offense to be successful next season.
Catcher RK Pos GP AB R H 2B 3B HR TB RBI BA OBP SLG OPS 11 C 162 538 56 126 23 2 12 189 57 .234 .330 .351 .681 NL 162 579 63 148 31 1 15 224 76 .254 .327 .385 .712 Name AB OPS Bako 299 .626 Ross 134 .747 Valentin 129 .737
Reds catchers were 11th out of 16 offensively last season. Bako and Valentin are free agents and I think I’d let them both go. Bako should never have been here to start with. I’m done with the three catcher situation; it’s left the roster tight on numerous occasions already, so I’d let Valentin go and find a new LH PH. Hanigan will be a fine backup. The Reds should have a starting catcher on their shopping list this off season. I’d make calls on Shoppach, Clement, and Saltalamacchia.
First Base RK Pos GP AB R H 2B 3B HR TB RBI BA OBP SLG OPS 5 1B 162 606 75 177 41 3 25 299 91 .292 .366 .493 .859 NL 162 614 88 170 37 2 28 294 103 .276 .358 .479 .837 Name AB OPS Votto 526 .874
Votto is a very good player. I’ve heard thoughts of picking up a 1B and moving him to LF. I’d leave him at 1B and pick up a LF for the sake of strengthening the defense.
Second Base RK Pos GP AB R H 2B 3B HR TB RBI BA OBP SLG OPS 10 2B 162 645 89 165 26 7 21 268 84 .256 .305 .416 .720 NL 162 633 90 171 35 4 15 259 74 .271 .338 .409 .747 Name AB OPS Phillips 559 .754
I’ve always thought Phillips bat was overrated and this season, he was just above average for an NL 2B. He’ll be grossly overpaid in 2011 at $11M. I’ve always wanted him moved back to SS but that is obviously not happening. Great defense and average bat, just keep him out of the four hole and away from the top of the lineup.
Third Base RK Pos GP AB R H 2B 3B HR TB RBI BA OBP SLG OPS 6 3B 162 591 80 148 34 1 28 268 78 .250 .339 .453 .792 NL 162 618 83 164 35 2 23 272 86 .264 .334 .440 .774 Name AB OPS Encarnacion 506 .807
Everyone keeps saying he is going to break out. I always thought of him as a solid .800 to .825 OPS kind of guy. Solid bat and rough on defense. He’ll get a big raise in arbitration. I see him back next season unless they can get a 3B in return in a trade.
Shortstop RK Pos GP AB R H 2B 3B HR TB RBI BA OBP SLG OPS 11 SS 162 657 76 179 39 3 6 242 60 .272 .321 .368 .689 NL 162 641 85 177 35 6 12 259 61 .275 .333 .401 .734 Name AB OPS Keppinger 459 .657 Hairston 261 .871
I like Keppinger, though I don’t like him as the everyday SS. He’s a better hitter than he showed this season, though. Hairston had a career season at 32 years old and can’t be counted on producing like he did this year. I’ll believe Gonzalez will be back when I see it. Shortstop is a position the Reds need to upgrade, unless they buy a clue and move Phillips over, in which case they need a 2B.
Left Field RK Pos GP AB R H 2B 3B HR TB RBI BA OBP SLG OPS 6 LF 162 582 94 144 29 2 38 291 95 .247 .361 .500 .861 NL 162 623 91 169 35 4 23 282 85 .271 .350 .452 .802 Name AB OPS Dunn 373 .901 Cabrera 115 .710 Dickerson 102 1.021
Dunn was dealt and we didn’t get a bat back, just a couple of pitchers and a utility catcher. Cabrera will be lucky to make the bench next year, if he is even offered arbitration. Dickerson will not hit this much going forward, but could be part of the answer in CF. He’ll be a solid 4th OF at least. This is a position that needs upgraded big-time; the RH bat fits well here. It will be interesting to see who is out in LF opening day next season.
Center Field RK Pos GP AB R H 2B 3B HR TB RBI BA OBP SLG OPS 13 CF 162 659 92 164 34 3 20 264 74 .249 .299 .401 .700 NL 162 641 93 171 34 5 19 273 78 .267 .333 .426 .760 Name AB OPS Patterson 366 .582 Freel 131 .699
Here is another position that screams for attention. Patterson must go. We might be able to get by with a Dickerson and Freel/Hopper platoon of sorts until Stubbs is ready.
Right Field RK Pos GP AB R H 2B 3B HR TB RBI BA OBP SLG OPS 11 RF 162 621 85 151 30 2 28 269 84 .243 .331 .433 .764 NL 162 624 88 169 37 4 21 277 84 .270 .343 .443 .786 Name AB OPS Bruce 413 .767 Griffey 359 .787
Bruce did well for his debut at such a young age. Let’s hope he keeps developing and improving like we expect him to.
PH/DH/Pitchers RK Pos GP AB R H 2B 3B HR TB RBI BA OBP SLG OPS 11 PH 145 251 25 58 7 1 5 82 39 .231 .305 .327 .631 NL 140 234 25 54 10 1 5 81 32 .229 .317 .346 .663 RK Pos GP AB R H 2B 3B HR TB RBI BA OBP SLG OPS 7 DH 9 35 5 7 0 0 3 16 5 .200 .282 .457 .739 NL 8 30 4 7 1 0 1 12 4 .239 .307 .399 .706 RK Pos GP AB R H 2B 3B HR TB RBI BA OBP SLG OPS 14 P 153 280 15 32 6 0 1 41 10 .114 .139 .146 .285 NL 154 297 16 42 7 0 1 53 16 .139 .177 .175 .352
Threw this in because it looked interesting. PH’s a tad below average; bench upgrade will help that. It will be interesting to see how Owings improves the pitchers hitting numbers next season.
Pitching RK Pos GP W L ERA Sv CG SHO IP H ER R BB SO BAA WHIP 13 Reds 162 74 88 4.55 34 2 6 1442.1 1542 729 800 557 1227 .275 1.46 NL 162 79 82 4.29 38 4 9 1446 1457 689 749 554 1122 .263 1.39
Looks odd that our pitching staff ranked 13th out of 16 in the NL and we are still so high on it going into next season. There is good reason for that also, let’s examine it by breaking down the starters and relievers.
Starters RK Pos GP W L ERA Sv CG SHO IP H ER R BB SO BAA WHIP 14 SP 162 51 68 4.97 0 2 0 917.1 996 507 550 343 762 .278 1.46 NL 162 54 56 4.43 0 4 0 932 959 457 493 335 690 .267 1.39 Name GS ERA Arroyo 34 4.77 Volquez 32 3.21 Cueto 31 4.81 Harang 29 4.78 Fogg 14 7.58
Starters were 14th out of 16 in the NL. There is why the staff ranked so low overall. Volquez was awesome, but he needs to show he can repeat that next season. All the other starters were below average. It’s like we had a #1 starter, three #4 starters, and an armless guy in the five spot.
Lots of reason for hope here, though. Harang came on strong and looked like himself late in the season. His ERA was a full run higher than usual, so look for him to bounce back. Arroyo fell of the cliff for a few starts; he was his average self the rest of the season. Cueto hung tough and pretty much did like what you’d expect from a young guy in his first year in the bigs. One would expect him to apply lessons learned and improve next season also.
Fogg, Bailey, Thompson, and Belisle combined for 31 starts with an ERA of over 7. We can expect big improvement in that spot next season from Micah Owings if he proves to be recovered from shoulder woes. Bailey, Thompson, Ramirez, and maybe Maloney will be in the mix for the fifth spot also. I can’t remember a year following the Reds where I didn’t think they needed another SP going into the off season.
Relievers RK Pos GP W L ERA Sv CG SHO IP H ER R BB SO BAA WHIP 3 RP 159 23 20 3.80 34 0 0 519.0 540 219 247 213 456 .269 1.45 NL 157 26 26 4.06 38 0 0 511 495 231 254 217 429 .255 1.39 Name IP ERA Affeldt 78.1 3.33 Cordero 70.1 3.33 Lincoln 70.1 4.48 Weathers 69.1 3.25 Burton 58.2 3.22 Bray 47.0 2.87 Majewski 40.0 6.53
I was excited to see that the Reds 3.80 ERA ranked them 3rd out of 16 NL clubs. But I find it worrisome that their 1.45 WHIP belies their 3.80 ERA. Cordero did ok; of course, his wildness drove me crazy at times and he is way overpaid for a reliever. Weathers is a free agent and was solid again. The Reds will have to weigh his age and chances on decline against what he is asking for next season.
Affeldt did a good job out of the pen. He, too, is a free agent and I believe the lefty will be sought after and may get priced out of the Reds range and/or enticed to a winning ball club. Burton appears ready to step up into Weathers setup role. Bray was good and could back fill for Affeldt if he leaves via free agency. Lincoln was pretty solid and will be cheap; he should be back as a middle man next season. Majewski better just be gone. Look for Masset, Herrera, and Roenicke to compete for any open spots in spring training.
Fielding RK TEAM GP E FPCT A PO TC 14 Cin 162 114 .981 1567 4327 6008 NL 162 99 .984 1642 4338 6079
Reds are once again pitiful with the gloves as they rank 14th out of 16th in fielding in the NL. Is anyone else getting tired of hearing the lip service about improving the defense every year. Think they’ll ever do it? Maybe the Griffey and Dunn trades were the first steps. If so, Encarnacion will get dealt next.
Reds Free Agents
RHP Josh Fogg
RHP David Weathers
LHP Jeremy Affeldt
RHP Mike Lincoln
LHP Kent Mercker
C Paul Bako
C Javier Valentin
IF/OF Jerry Hairston Jr.
CF Corey Patterson
Mercker was injured and horrible and is likely to retire. Fogg was terrible and should not be pursued. Weathers and Affeldt had solid seasons and I suspect the Reds will make offers to retain them, otherwise they would have been wise to deal them to contenders at the trade deadline. Price will be a factor with both of them. Mike Lincoln had his moments this season and I would guess he will get an offer to come back next season also.
Bako and Patterson both stunk profusely; don’t sprain your wrist waving goodbye to them. Personally, I’d let Valentin go and find a new LH PH for next season and drop the three catcher notion. Hairston is a bit of an enigma. He played so well this year and appears that he could fill the Reds big need at either SS or CF and at the lead off spot. Problem is, he’s coming off a career season at age 32. If they Reds plan to contend, they don’t make the same mistake they made with Freel and sign Hairston to contract for starter money. He’s a poor bet to continue producing as he is now. If they can get him signed cheap for a super utility role that would be fine.
Arbitration Eligible
RHP Matt Belisle
RHP Gary Majewski
IF Edwin Encarnacion
IF Andy Phillips
IF/OF Jolbert Cabrera
I think it’s time to release Majewski. Belisle had a good stint in the pen and he shouldn’t be due a big raise this season. Encarnacion is pretty solid with the bat and will get a decent raise. Phillips and Cabrera would both have a hard time making the roster next season and it would not surprise me to see either of them let go.
That’s one man’s opinion. I guess we’ll find out soon what Walt Jocketty thinks.
Wow, nice post, Tom. Can’t find much I disagree with.
I like that the word “hope” is used in this post. It’s the day after the season and we’re already hoping about next year. I guess that’s all we have most years, but we can try to bitterly cling to that.
One things for Change is coming
Now will it be the Change we need or Change we can believe in
I hope Walt is a Maverick and gets Holliday, Beltre, and Furcal while not being an idiot and giving up too much.
*One thigns for sure
**things
He wasn’t our best hitter he was batting .237 and while OBP gives him more credibility I would like an example of a similiar type hitter batting in the heart of the order that led his team to a world series. I don’t believe its possible — sometimes yo need to be able to put the ball in play and drive in runs.
Beltre is a friggin bad joke. Why does anybody want him? his career year was in a free agent contrct year since then he has been nothing special and he makes way more than EE who there is still hope for.
Lost our best hitter?
Phillips is still with the team and I think Votto is still there too.
i could understand getting a guy like beltre, but then what becomes of EE, you cant let a guy like him walk with his potential and is playing for a relatively cheap salary. Holliday is out of the question in my imagination. Furcal would be a dream at SS but not likely to happen. (remember its Cincinnati we are talking about) But guys like Rocco Baldeli are a possibility to get cheap and have a good year (except for his fatigue sickness is a real concern)
OR just move phillips to SS and get a second baseman that puts the ball in play and gets things happening, a placido palanco type guy…
and with the rotation numbers being so deep as they are coming into next year and more young guys on the rise… do you see the organization giving micah owings a shot at playing in the OF to provide some offense? (its a stretch but possible)
Sign Halliday to a three year deal and put Encarnacion in left field. Trade Bailey and Thompson to Texas for Saltamachia.
Great post Tom. The only difference I might have with you findings is the retention of Valentin. He’s been pretty special as a pinch hitter and his ability to play two positions in a pinch gives the manager some options in tight and extra inning games.
It’s certainly not a make or break type thing with me, but I think I’d keep Valentin around.
I believe the Reds biggest need is a starting pitcher, preferably a left hander. Harang, Arroyo, Cueto, and Volquez went a combined 47-48 in 126 starts. The combination of Fogg, Belisle, Bailey, Thompson, Ramirez and Pettyjohn were 4-21 in 36 starts.
Catcher should be set with Hannigan. Dickerson, Hopper and Freel should be okay in the lead-off slot.
I would like to see the Reds move Phillips to third and Keppinger to second. That would free up EE as trade bait. I do believe EE could help some American League team as a DH/1b man. Say Seattle for bedard. he made have complained a lot, but he had a winning record and an ERA under 4.
I would also like to see the Reds make a play for Randy Johnson. He is a free agent. He is not the superstar he once was, but he also had a winning record and an ERA under 4.
The Reds ought to forget about Owings as a pitcher and use him as a right handed bat. The guy can flat out hit.
If the Reds “brain” trust would just move Phillips to SS (most likely via divine intervention) then they could go after FA Orlando Hudson for 2B (assuming he’s healthy). He’s only 31 so 3 or 4 years wouldn’t kill them. If Stubbs is really all that on defense, that would be a fairly sweet core up the middle.