Anything to discuss today? I mean, other than this?

Here’s a question to debate: what are the chances that the Reds lose 100 games next year? I mean, there’s a decent chance that the Reds will lose 95 this year, and I can imagine few scenarios that result in the Reds actually being better next year.

What do you think?

25 Responses

  1. nick in va

    That never gets old.

    I’ve got a fever….and the only prescription is more Reds wins.

  2. Jeff Gentil

    That is the best SNL skit ever! Everytime I hear that song on the radio I play my “air” cowbell. Classic!

  3. per14

    Well, I can see them being better assuming Harang returns to form and Arroyo (if he is still around) is more consistent and Cueto continues to improve and the Reds find at least an average catcher and a big (850 plus OPS) bat to play either 1b, 3b, Lf, Rf, or Cf (with the existing players at those positions being shuffled around).

    I think all those things are possible. Burton being healthy is also another important contingency.

    I’d say 15%.

  4. Y-City Jim

    That is almost Spinal Tap quality!!!


  5. Steve

    As per14 points out, if everything goes according to that scenario, they’ll be okay.

    However, the odds on EVERYthing going right are pretty minimal.

    If all the rookies improve and they fill a few of those holes (as mentioned), we’ll see significant improvement.

    I was at the game yesterday, and that was a perfect example of that happening – albeit in ONE game, of course.

  6. Steve

    Also, what is it about Will Ferrell that reminds me of Adam Dunn?

    I’ve been thinking that for several years now…..

  7. C-Bus Fan

    This offense needs a right-handed cleanup hitter so that Phillips can bat second and Bruce and Votto can stay at 3 and 5. I don’t think the free agent list is as bad as everyone else thinks. With the Dunn and Griffey dollars the Reds should be able to sign one of these guys to fill this role, listed in order of preference.
    1.Mark Teixeira
    2.Pat Burrell
    3.Milton Bradley
    4.Joe Crede

    Or Trade for Jason Bay or Xavier Nady.

  8. NickP

    I think all those things are possible. Burton being healthy is also another important contingency.

    Burton’s great, but just exactly how many wins do you think a 75-80 inning middle reliever adds? 1? 1.5 maybe?

  9. Kevin

    Will Ferrel – Adam Dunn, Tracy Morgan – Edwin Encarnacion, Chris Kattan – Jerry Hairston Jr.

  10. daedalus

    Does no one think Volquez-Cueto-Bailey is Glavine-Smoltz-Maddux?

    Look, Bailey is only 22. He is a headcase, but when he came back from Louisville, he pitched brilliantly for two games but the Reds still found a way to deny him wins, so he freaked out and reverted back to his young ways.

    We got Volquez-Cueto-Bailey-Harang-Thompson-Arroyo to look forward to. Don’t look now, but Arroyo’s been one of the best pitchers in MLB in the last month.

    Shoot, we have so much to look forward to with Bruce, Votto, Phillips, Edwin, Frazier, Francisco, Valaika, Maloney, Roenicke, Herrera, Thompson, Soto, Waring, Stubbs, Alonzo, etc, etc. Our farm system is LOADED. John Sickels started his assessment of our farm system last year with “Good lord!”

    We have sooooo much to look forward to. I’m over my doom and gloom for next year. I’m looking forward to September callups. And hey, the Bats are in first place. Not only that, but half of the roster are prospects, not hasbeens and neverwillbes.

    Hey, get excited for next year!

  11. Kevin

    25 million is off the books with Dunn and Griffey, but I added up the raises of Phillips, Arroyo, Harang, Cordero, and Gonzalez and Freel (who don’t even play), and the overall payroll makes a jump of about 15 million in the raises of these 6 players alone.

    As the mailbag on says, “The Reds will have money to spend if they want to raise their payroll. In terms of 2009, the combined $25 million for Griffey and Dunn will be off the books, but it doesn’t mean the payroll is shrinking or there is an influx of fresh cash to spend.”

    i think he’s right, which is a bummer. It looks to me that some of that at least the Cordero contract, and maybe some of the extensions (Phillips, Harang, Arroyo), were made with the departures of Dunn and Griffey in ’08 in mind.

    I personally don’t feel too hopeful about next year. The salaries next year of these 6 players make up more than half of our current payroll. Unless Castellini really shells out some bucks, I don’t really see us making any splash-signings for a “quick fix”

    I wish I wasn’t saying this, because I was fooled into thinking we were going to contend at the beginning of this season, but at this point I’m thinking more about 2010 as our next chance to make the playoffs, assuming the “young core” doesn’t fall apart, some other prospects pan out, and management cools it on the stupid decisions.

  12. nycredsfan

    I don’t see much chance that they aren’t better next year. Look at all the players that stand to progress: Votto, Bruce, EdE, Phillips, Dickerson, Cueto, Volquez, Burton, Bray….none of those guys has hit their peak yet. I don’t think we’ll compete until ’10, but we can’t be worse, unless of course Patterson is still on the team.

  13. Kevin

    I didn’t get a chance to read your post, Daedalus, but I do want to say that I’m in agreement that our system is loaded with prospects. The other day I was feeling bummed about the Reds so I went and read up on some of the guys like Francisco, Frazier, and Stubbs to cheer myself up. The issue is that I don’t really expect them those position players to be ready next year, some of whom are still playing in A+.

    I really do feel like the rotation is going to be a really bright spot for us next year, although I’m not feeling that hopeful about Bailey. But, I don’t see how we’re going to have any offense, with the holes we’ve got in the field, the crowded payroll, and the certainly promising prospects being more than a year from readiness.

    If those guys get callups in September and are on the roster next year, do you expect any of them to perform better than Jay Bruce (our top dog) has done in his first full rookie season? (.263, .309, .432) I don’t think any of them would put up those numbers if they were to start in Cincinnati next season, and a lineup full of those numbers isn’t a contending lineup.

  14. Kevin

    Give me a break, #13, are you serious that having Dunn off the roster is going to make us have a better record?

  15. Kevin

    ( I mean to say having Dunn of the roster considered as your only evidence for us improving )

  16. Phill

    Yea the Reds have a ton of quality prospects in the minors they have a good group of young quality pitchers(Cueto, Bailey, Volquez even Thompson). Of course the team will get better. That’s what happens when the level of talent on the roster goes up.When Dunn was traded and they won their first game with him one of the first things he said was “It feels great to win a game, hadn’t won in about a week”

  17. World

    Hey, the Reds have to be better next year.

    The team in the first half of ’08 was dead. When you would see them on the road, they looked like zombies. Griffey, let’s face it, was around only to hit 600 and they’re overjoyed that the White Sox took him off their hands. He was a load on the team at #3 and his defense was awful. His demeanor was the same as it always was.

    Dunn was a decent player but should have been dealt in the offseason to an American League club when his value would have been much greater. That’s Big Bob’s doing right there as he liked Dunn- at least until he heard rumblings about the Donkey wanting $120M. of his lettuce. They might not be able to replace his power but they can find someone who is a better fielder and clutch RBI man than he is and the ball flies out of the park in Cincy anyway. You don’t have to hit them to Kentucky.

    I bet Bailey is gone over the winter. He is not especially cherished by the organization because of his attitude and lack of work ethic. He definitely has trade value and could bring a catcher or an outfielder.

    Freel will be back. Stick him in center and let him lead off and play. That problem is resolved.

    The Reds need a catcher and a right handed stick in the outfield. Walt J. can get those things in trade becasue he has pitching (Bailey, Maloney, and others) to dangle.

    I think the closer is shaky but Big Bob has a lot invested in him. He’s not going anywhere.

    I would add a veteran pitcher (a good one- i.e. expensive) or two to mix in with the kids. Free agency, free agency, free agency.

    I think the future is rosier than it was at the beginning of this year. To play .500 ball would be a good start.

  18. Dave from Louisville

    I like your thinking World.

    I am confident in saying that Dunn has never been on a winning team hsi entire career in professional baseball including the minor leagues.

  19. Chris

    Dave from Louisville, watch the profanity, please.

    Your comments can be as stupid as you want. Just make them safe for work and kids.

  20. Y-City Jim

    Milton Bradley is an attitude problem.

    Bailey is not a headcase. He is just still learning.

    Dunn was a ——- nihilist.

    What a load of BS.

    Freel will be back.

    Let’s hope not. Talk about overpaid.

    I am confident in saying that Dunn has never been on a winning team hsi entire career in professional baseball including the minor leagues.

    All four of Dunn’s minor league seasons were winning records.

  21. Phill

    Obviously because a player hasn’t played for a winning team(I assume you mean championships, because Dunn played on teams that ended over .500) it shows his skill and his mindset.

    One man does not make a team.

  22. Chris

    (No clue why I’m humoring this line of discussion.)

    Anyway, the Reds record w/o Dunn:

    2008: 1-4
    2007: 3-7
    2006: 1-1
    2005: 2-1
    2004: 0-1
    2003: 15-31
    2002: 2-2
    2001: 35-61
    Total: 59-108 (.353)

  23. per14

    True, Burton won’t make a big difference. But I think he’s a potential stud, on a near Mo Rivera level. If he’s pitching like he can pitch, he helps the entire bull-pen fall into place. If he’s not, we have to depend on people like Weathers to get us from the starter to the closer. Heck, I’d make Burton the closer if Cordero wasn’t making 10 million plus.