Hal McCoy reports the following on his blog:
Who starts Thursday in Philadelphia, Fogg’s turn?
Manager Dusty Baker was coy about it, but it is finally Homer Bailey time. Bailey was scheduled to pitch for the Class AAA Louisville Bats tonight and will, but is expected to pitch only two innings and take the rest of the night off.
He’ll face the Phillies Thursday in Philadelphia.
This seems to be the logical move for the Reds. Most likely the one I’d make with an eye on the future, but I’m not so sure it is a no-brainer. Consider the following.
2008 W L ERA G GS IP H R ER HR BB SO GO/AO AVG Bailey 4 4 4.05 11 11 66.2 63 31 30 6 29 54 0.99 .252 Maloney 6 2 4.09 11 11 61.2 58 28 28 1 19 54 0.73 .252 Thompson 4 2 1.58 11 11 68.1 48 20 12 2 16 62 0.83 .203 Bailey W L ERA G GS IP H R ER HR BB SO GO/AO AVG April 4 2 2.29 6 6 39.1 30 10 10 4 9 32 0.76 .213 May 0 2 6.59 5 5 27.1 33 21 20 2 20 22 1.50 .303 Maloney W L ERA G GS IP H R ER HR BB SO GO/AO AVG April 2 1 6.65 5 5 23.0 30 17 17 0 8 24 0.61 .323 May 4 1 2.56 6 6 38.2 28 11 11 1 11 30 0.81 .204 Thompson W L ERA G GS IP H R ER HR BB SO GO/AO AVG CHA AA 3 2 1.76 10 10 61.1 44 19 12 2 14 56 0.87 .208 LOU AAA 1 0 0.00 1 1 7.0 4 1 0 0 2 6 0.56 .167
Bailey and Maloney are the two most likely callups for the 5th spot in the rotation. As you can see from the numbers above they have had very similar numbers for the season this year at AAA. The biggest difference between the two is that Maloney walks fewer batters and Bailey gives up more HRs and fly balls. Seeing that Maloney gives up fewer flyballs, he could be better suited for Great American Ballpark. Also in Maloney’s favor is that he is hot right now. Maloney and Homer have had opposite results in April and May. Maloney would also give the Reds a LH in the starting rotation. But, on the other hand, Bailey, who is two years younger, has more AAA experience than Maloney, and even some time in the Majors, which Maloney does not.
Thompson, who is 22 years old like Bailey, only has a single start above AA, but consider that Johnny Cueto seems to be doing pretty good this season with only a few starts above the AA level.
I’d have to give the nod to Bailey, like the Reds have — but it was a very close call over Maloney. Would your choice have been different?