I’m pretty late this offseason in getting out my rotation slot definitions for the 2007 season. Last year I posted the 2006 rotation slot definitions. The year before I posted the 2004 and 2005 rotation slot definitions. The methodology and data for the 2007 season follows.
I first extracted all starting pitching statistics. I then sorted the data for all pitchers in each league by ERA (Then later XERA). Then, for each league, beginning at the top of the list, I totalled up enough IP to account for a #1 SP for each team in the league. I totalled the statistics for these pitchers and divided by the number of teams in the league to come up with the average #1 SP for the league. I then repeated this process with the remaining pitchers for each of the remaining pitching rotation slots #2 – #5. I determined the number of innings pitched for each rotation slot, by trying to come as close to the following as I could.
Slot IP #1 220 #2 210 #3 200 #4 190 #5 The Rest
Click below to see the data for the 2007 season.
Here is the data for the 2007 season.
2007 ERA Rotation Slots
AL Rot Slots W L ERA GS IP H R ER HR BB SO WHIP XERA
Avg AL #1 SP 16 9 3.32 34 218 203 88 80 20 62 183 1.22 3.48
Avg AL #2 SP 14 11 3.92 34 212 216 100 92 23 57 150 1.29 4.01
Avg AL #3 SP 12 11 4.51 34 197 210 106 99 23 71 124 1.42 4.54
Avg AL #4 SP 10 15 5.37 33 187 219 123 112 24 73 125 1.56 5.29
Avg AL #5 SP 6 13 6.94 28 141 183 116 109 25 58 87 1.70 6.39
Avg AL SP 12 12 4.62 32 191 206 106 98 23 64 134 1.41 4.59
Rotation Slots ERA Range
AL #1 Starters 3.70 and under
AL #2 Starters 3.71 - 4.19
AL #3 Starters 4.20 - 4.91
AL #4 Starters 4.92 - 5.78
AL #5 Starters 5.79 and over
NL Rot Slots W L ERA GS IP H R ER HR BB SO WHIP XERA
Avg NL #1 SP 15 9 3.34 36 222 202 89 82 19 72 186 1.24 3.42
Avg NL #2 SP 14 11 4.04 35 212 210 102 95 25 71 153 1.33 4.14
Avg NL #3 SP 11 12 4.65 35 199 214 111 103 25 69 116 1.42 4.65
Avg NL #4 SP 10 14 5.36 34 191 224 123 114 28 68 126 1.53 5.40
Avg NL #5 SP 4 11 7.17 22 106 137 89 84 19 50 71 1.77 6.57
Avg SP NL 11 12 4.64 32 186 197 103 96 23 66 130 1.42 4.62
Rotation Slots ERA Range
NL #1 Starters 3.81 and under
NL #2 Starters 3.82 - 4.39
NL #3 Starters 4.40 - 4.99
NL #4 Starters 5.00 - 5.97
NL #5 Starters 5.98 and over
2007 XERA Rotation Slots
AL Rot Slots W L ERA GS IP H R ER HR BB SO WHIP XERA
Avg AL #1 SP 17 8 3.49 33 215 195 89 84 21 60 183 1.18 3.33
Avg AL #2 SP 13 10 3.92 33 207 208 98 90 20 60 144 1.29 3.93
Avg AL #3 SP 12 13 4.56 35 206 225 112 104 23 70 141 1.43 4.61
Avg AL #4 SP 10 14 5.24 33 190 224 121 111 25 71 111 1.56 5.33
Avg AL #5 SP 6 13 6.76 27 138 179 111 103 26 59 89 1.74 6.59
Avg SP AL 12 12 4.62 32 191 206 106 98 23 64 134 1.41 4.59
Rotation Slots XERA Range
AL #1 Starters 3.60 and under
AL #2 Starters 3.60 - 4.36
AL #3 Starters 4.37 - 4.98
AL #4 Starters 4.99 - 5.72
AL #5 Starters 5.73 and over
NL Rot Slots W L ERA GS IP H R ER HR BB SO WHIP XERA
Avg NL #1 SP 15 9 3.46 35 216 188 89 83 20 71 188 1.20 3.27
Avg NL #2 SP 13 11 4.06 35 208 206 102 94 22 70 143 1.33 4.04
Avg NL #3 SP 12 13 4.61 35 203 223 112 104 23 71 129 1.44 4.68
Avg NL #4 SP 10 13 5.33 34 185 216 118 110 28 67 119 1.52 5.39
Avg NL #5 SP 5 11 6.74 24 117 154 92 87 22 52 72 1.77 6.77
Avg SP NL 11 12 4.64 32 186 197 103 96 23 66 130 1.42 4.62
Rotation Slots XERA Range
NL #1 Starters 3.78 and under
NL #2 Starters 3.79 - 4.35
NL #3 Starters 4.35 - 5.01
NL #4 Starters 5.01 - 5.82
NL #5 Starters 5.83 and over
Here is how each of the Reds starters from last season fared. Also included are any pitchers the Reds added over the winter.
Reds SP ERA Team W L ERA GS IP H R ER HR BB SO WHIP XERA Reds 49 59 4.86 162 957.0 1062 554 517 133 272 688 1.39 4.80 NL #1 SP ERA GS IP H R ER HR BB SO WHIP XERA A Harang 3.73 34 231.6 213 100 96 28 52 218 1.14 3.49 NL #2 SP ERA GS IP H R ER HR BB SO WHIP XERA B Arroyo 4.23 34 210.6 232 109 99 28 63 156 1.40 4.74 NL #3 SP ERA GS IP H R ER HR BB SO WHIP XERA T Shearn 4.40 6 30.6 28 15 15 7 12 15 1.31 4.84 E Volquez 4.50 6 34.0 34 18 17 4 15 29 1.44 4.44 K Lohse 4.66 32 189.3 205 107 98 22 56 118 1.38 4.51 NL #4 SP ERA GS IP H R ER HR BB SO WHIP XERA J Fogg 5.00 29 163.6 192 99 91 23 59 93 1.53 5.35 E Milton 5.17 6 31.3 39 21 18 4 9 18 1.53 5.43 B Livingston 5.27 10 56.3 77 35 33 8 8 27 1.51 5.82 M Belisle 5.32 30 177.6 212 111 105 26 43 125 1.44 5.19 H Bailey 5.76 9 45.3 43 32 29 3 28 28 1.57 4.20 NL #5 SP ERA GS IP H R ER HR BB SO WHIP XERA E Ramirez 8.79 3 14.3 19 14 14 5 7 7 1.82 8.25 K Saarloos 10.61 3 9.3 17 11 11 2 5 5 2.37 9.82 P Dumatrait 15.00 6 18.0 39 30 30 6 12 9 2.83 12.90 Reds SP XERA Team W L ERA GS IP H R ER HR BB SO WHIP XERA Reds 49 59 4.86 162 957.0 1062 554 517 133 272 688 1.39 4.80 NL #1 SP ERA GS IP H R ER HR BB SO WHIP XERA A Harang 3.73 34 231.6 213 100 96 28 52 218 1.14 3.49 NL #2 SP ERA GS IP H R ER HR BB SO WHIP XERA H Bailey 5.76 9 45.3 43 32 29 3 28 28 1.57 4.20 NL #3 SP ERA GS IP H R ER HR BB SO WHIP XERA E Volquez 4.50 6 34.0 34 18 17 4 15 29 1.44 4.44 K Lohse 4.66 32 189.3 205 107 98 22 56 118 1.38 4.51 B Arroyo 4.23 34 210.6 232 109 99 28 63 156 1.40 4.74 T Shearn 4.40 6 30.6 28 15 15 7 12 15 1.31 4.84 NL #4 SP ERA GS IP H R ER HR BB SO WHIP XERA M Belisle 5.32 30 177.6 212 111 105 26 43 125 1.44 5.19 J Fogg 5.00 29 163.6 192 99 91 23 59 93 1.53 5.35 E Milton 5.17 6 31.3 39 21 18 4 9 18 1.53 5.43 B Livingston 5.27 10 56.3 77 35 33 8 8 27 1.51 5.82 NL #5 SP ERA GS IP H R ER HR BB SO WHIP XERA E Ramirez 8.79 3 14.3 19 14 14 5 7 7 1.82 8.25 K Saarloos 10.61 3 9.3 17 11 11 2 5 5 2.37 9.82 P Dumatrait 15.00 6 18.0 39 30 30 6 12 9 2.83 12.90
I always find these numbers interesting. I hope they help to illustrate what kind of pitcher someone is talking about when they say for instance, “We really need a #3 SP for next season.”.