I was listening to today’s game broadcast, and it struck my how blindly optimistic everyone is this time of year. If someone had a great year last year, we assume they’ll repeat it. If someone had a bad year, we hope they’ll improve. Nobody ever gives the first thought to the fact that “career years,” by definition, are better than all the other ones.
Jeff Brantley, for example, were talking about Jared Burton and Jeff Keppinger, and how great both were last year, and how much both will contribute this year. He and Marty – and even me, until I thought about it for a while – never even considered that either guy might regress to the mean. I’m not saying they will play worse, only that it’s possible. And this isn’t an attack on Brantley (there will be plenty of time for that – my wife has already banned the Reds from our car when he’s on). Nearly every broadcaster, writer, and fan, on every team, thinks the same way. I’m sure there’s a name for this logical blind spot. I just don’t know what it is.

Who do you think are the most likely Reds to fall from last year’s performance? My vote has to go to Keppinger. The good news is that even with a .400 SLG, he’s a very useful guy.