That’s the “weighted mean” projection, and assumes a full season (654 PAs). Rate-stat-wise, it’s not quite as good as Josh Hamilton last year, but those counting numbers would almost guarantee a Rookie of the Year trophy.
A couple other tidbits:EE is just about as productive, but with fewer extra-base-hits but better contract (.285, .356, .493).
They project BP to lose about 40 points of SLG (-10 HR), and keep that level of production for the remainder of the deal he just signed.
Not great news for the idea of using either Mr. Freel (.260, .334, .370), or Mr. Hopper (.288, .324, .342) as a leadoff man. Keppinger will come back down to earth, but will still be a very useful hitter.
Finally, PECOTA doesn’t adjust for organizational stupidity, so they only have this guy (.226, .266, .318) getting 57 PAs.