Our buddy Justin has taken something I’ve been wondering about lately — How much is too much to give up in a trade for Orioles pitcher Erik Bedard? — and actually performed some analysis. Here is his conclusion, but be sure to go read the entire post; it’s a very thought-provoking post with much more baseball goodness than I can quote below:
Nevertheless, what this analysis indicates to me is that a package of any two of the Reds’ prospects would be severely overpaying for two years of Bedard. Now, Bedard’s trade value could be greatly improved if you could extend Bedard beyond the 2010 season. But the potential for such an extension seems questionable given Bedard’s comments about wanting to test free agency. Furthermore, pitchers don’t tend to make particularly good investments in the long term because of how unreliable even great pitchers tend to be past age 30.
Given that a one-for-one trade of any of the Reds’ prospects for Bedard is apparently very unlikely, I have to say that I’m really hoping the Reds do not end up making this deal. So good luck to the Dodgers, Mariners, and anyone else who might want to step in and try to outbid Krivsky.