Kevin Goldstein, prospect guru at Baseball Prospectus (formerly w/ Baseball America, for you BP haters), offered his thoughts on the Rule 5 draft (Subscription).  I was hoping that Kevin would find something in the move that we’d missed.  Nope.

6. Reds select RHP Sergio Valenzeula from the Braves. This pick is a joke right? Valenzuela pitched 72 innings this year, split between Atlanta’s Low- and High-A teams. In those 72 innings, he gave up 102 hits while nearly walking (37) as many as he struck out (38). Sure, he’s got plus velocity, but he’s not fooling teams that have maybe, maybe three or future big leaguers on them, so what makes you think he’s going to suddenly have any chance in hell of getting an entire lineup full of big leaguers out?
Chances To Stick: Seriously, they really took Sergio Valenzuela?

Goldstein also commented on Carlos Guevara, taken from the Reds by the Marlins and then shipped to San Diego.  “He’s a short and squat right-hander, with a screwball that batters have no clue what to do with, but like Bierd, the question with him is to whether or not he has enough velocity to set the pitch up against more advanced hitters.”  The Padres drafted two other guys in the Rule 5, so there’s a very decent chance that Guevara might be coming back to the Reds (or at least that a trade will be worked out).