Per Ken Rosenthal.

I do NOT like this move contract one bit.  (I think Cordero will probably be a good addition.  I just don’t like the dollars or contract length).   I’ll be back soon to explain why.  I’m confident that at least 20 relievers will be more productive over the span of this contract, AND will cost less than $10M for the whole period.  That’s not a knock on Cordero, it’s just the nature of the beast.
The Linebrink contract was silly. This one is for more than double the money.

Here’s why I don’t like this deal:

  • Cordero will be 33-36 during this deal. Few relievers are effective beyond age 34.
  • Cordero will be paid “closer money” four years from now. Few relievers remain at an elite level for four years, let alone seven or eight (assuming Cordero’s been elite for the past three).
  • Nearly $12M per year is just stupid money for a guy who’ll pitch 65-75 innings. Even if Dusty Baker were to use Cordero in every high-leverage situation, it’s a bad use of resources. And I can only assume that Baker will use Cordero only in the 9th inning, and only with leads of 3 or fewer runs.
  • By almost all accounts, Jared Burton has “closer stuff” and whatever intangible so-and-so needed to serve as closer, certainly as soon as 2009, at a price of around $600k. He’s now blocked by a guy making 20% more than Mariano Rivera.
  • The Reds reportedly outbid the Brewers by $1M per year. Can’t like that.
  • This presumably shoots the Reds wad for the 2007-08 off-season. And there’s still a hole in the rotation.
  • Cordero isn’t even a “big name” to satisfy Joe Sweatsock. I’m sure most WLW callers are saying “who?” right now. (Not really a negative to me, but if you’re paying premium-plus prices, you’re probably trying to make a splash.)

The good news is that his strikeout and walk rates were as good as they’ve ever been, and he keeps the ball in the ballpark.

Your thoughts?