We are just past the quarter mark of the season. Time to take inventory and examine where this club is at this point.
The Reds are sporting a 17-27 record, are in last place in the NL Central, and have the next to worst record in the National League. They have scored 198 Runs and given up 208 Runs. Thier pythagorean winning percentage of .475 would give them 21-23 record. It would appear that they are not as bad as thier current record would suggest. Let’s take a closer look at the performance of the club so far.
Pitching
ERA-RNK OPS-RNK WHIP-RNK Reds 4.22 10 .736 9 1.38 8 NL 4.06 .730 1.36
Overall the team pitching is pretty near league average.
Starting Pitching
ERA-RNK OPS-RNK WHIP-RNK Reds 4.20 10 .733 7 1.37 8 NL 4.19 .742 1.37
The starting pitchers have been almost dead on league average.
NAME G IP H ER R HR BB SO WHIP ERA Arroyo 9 61.1 54 18 24 1 21 43 1.22 2.64 Harang 9 59.0 60 29 30 4 15 53 1.27 4.42 Belisle 9 55.0 63 28 31 4 11 37 1.35 4.58 Lohse 9 53.0 67 28 31 5 12 37 1.49 4.75 Milton 6 31.1 39 18 21 4 9 18 1.53 5.17 Livingston 1 5.1 10 4 4 1 1 1 2.06 6.75
As expected Arroyo and Harang are heading up the staff. Arroyo is off to another great start this season. Harang’s ERA looks a little bloated next to his better than average WHIP. Belisle is holding his own, and it would be big plus if he continues to pitch well. Lohse is returning to earth after a hot start. Milton threw as expected before going on DL. There are not really any big surprises here.
Bailey is on the horizon and pitching well at AAA Louisville (2.27 ERA 1.13 WHIP). With this team looking like it will amount to nothing better than a .500 team, I’d like to see them promote him here in a few weeks and start getting his feet wet in the bigs this season, so he can contribute next season. I can’t say I’m excited about Saarloos getting the nod for the fifth start over Bailey, or even Dumatrait (1.94 ERA 1.22 WHIP) for that matter.
Relief Pitching
ERA-RNK OPS-RNK WHIP-RNK Reds 4.17 11 .741 11 1.39 9 NL 3.79 .708 1.35
The relivers seem to have been the thorn in the side all season long so far. Their numbers are a bit below average, but not near as bad as I was expecting.
NAME G IP H ER R HR BB SO WHIP ERA Weathers 18 20.2 15 5 7 0 3 22 0.87 2.18 Salmon 4 4.2 1 2 2 1 4 5 1.07 3.86 Coutlangus 18 13.1 11 5 6 2 6 10 1.28 3.38 Saarloos 20 17.2 15 10 12 1 9 11 1.36 5.09 Santos 17 21.0 20 9 9 3 13 13 1.57 3.86 Coffey 23 20.0 25 11 13 4 8 20 1.65 4.95 Cormier 6 3.0 4 3 3 1 1 1 1.67 9.00 Stanton 21 13.0 17 10 10 1 5 11 1.69 6.92 Burton 4 3.1 1 0 0 0 5 2 1.80 0.00
Weathers numbers look really great. Coutlangus has been pretty decent and a bit of a pleasant surprise. One might think that since he pretty much jumped from AA last season to the Reds this season, that Medlock and Guevera, who also pitched well last season at AA, might at least be able to get promotions to AAA.
Coffey on the other hand has been disappointing. I’ll never understand how a guy with his stuff is so hittable. Saarloos has been all right. Santos walks too many people. Stanton has been a disappointment also, I figured he’d do okay as a late setup guy, but he’s been banged around pretty hard. The jury is still out on Salmon and Burton, although I’d highly suggest that they both start throwing strikes.
Bray and Majewski should be here soon and when they arrive it will make for some interesting personnel decisions in the pen. Guardado is a wild card; anything positive he provides this season would be an unexpected plus.
Hitting
BA-RNK OBP-RNK SLG-RNK OPS-RNK Reds .252 11 .321 10 .415 7 .737- 7 NL .256 .327 .398 .725
For all their efforts to try to move the Reds towards a small ball, defensive-oriented, do-the-little-thing-right team. It appears that the Reds offense in still slanted towards a slugging team. The offense is slightly above average, which is a little surprising to me; it’s about as best as I would have hoped for coming into the season.
Catchers
BA-RNK OBP-RNK SLG-RNK OPS-RNK Reds .209 15 .257 15 .324 14 .580- 15 NL .254 .316 .372 .688 NAME AB BA OBP SLG OPS Ross 100 .200 .234 .330 .564 Valentin 45 .222 .321 .311 .632
Well, here is a problem spot on offense. I think Ross is much better than this; I expect that he’ll get hot soon and we’ll see his OPS up around .730 or so by seasons end. Valentin isn’t showing much either, and I hold no hope out for Moeller’s bat. We have no prospects in the minors behind the plate either. This is position that Krivsky could work on shoring up in the organization. If there are any veteran fire sales at trade deadline this year, a catching prospect would be a decent return.
First Basemen
BA-RNK OBP-RNK SLG-RNK OPS-RNK Reds .283 5 .348 8 .416 7 .763- 9 NL .267 .355 .426 .781 NAME AB BA OBP SLG OPS Hatteberg 101 .277 .354 .376 .730 Conine 77 .286 .345 .455 .799
The aged platoon is not faring so bad so far, but I wouldn’t be surprised if it goes south fast. This team would look better with these two being the first two guys coming of the bench to PH; we could still have their veteran leadership around then also.
Joey Votto has made adjustments at AAA from a slow start and is now hitting .275 BA/.397 OBP/.415 SLG/.812 OPS. With this team going no where this season, I’d get him up here for a half season at least. He should match these two guys production pretty easily. Interesting to note also that Votto has been seeing a little time out in LF recently also.
Second Basemen
BA-RNK OBP-RNK SLG-RNK OPS-RNK Reds .296 2 .347 5 .520 2 .866- 2 NL .261 .330 .415 .745 NAME AB BA OBP SLG OPS Phillips 174 .293 .339 .494 .833
Wow, a great start for Phillips. He started out hot last season too. He’s going to have to prove to me though that he can go the season without a prolonged funk like he hit last year. I also hope the power he is showing doesn’t get into his head again; that was his downfall when he first came up with Cleveland. I hope he continues to impress me.
Third Basemen
BA-RNK OBP-RNK SLG-RNK OPS-RNK Reds .241 11 .309 13 .296 14 .605- 15 NL .257 .337 .406 .744 NAME AB BA OBP SLG OPS Encarnacion 101 .218 .301 .287 .588 Castro 44 .182 .217 .227 .445
Edwin Encarnacion is hitting again already at Louisville, .359 BA/.375 OBP/.590 SLG/.965 OPS. I hope they don’t keep screwing around with him, and get him back up here at 3B quickly. Encarnacion is going to hit; if only they could teach him to throw. Wow, I was surprised that Castro even managed to under-produce Encarnacion’s horrid start.
Shortstops
BA-RNK OBP-RNK SLG-RNK OPS-RNK Reds .242 12 .300 13 .424 7 .724- 7 NL .270 .331 .406 .736 NAME AB BA OBP SLG OPS Gonzalez 147 .252 .306 .456 .762
Gonzalez is off to a great start, for him, mostly due to some early season power. He’s always been a bad hitter — career .687 OPS — so this is a bonus. Don’t expect it to last. I still would have preferred that the Reds have pursued an OF bat in the offseason rather than Gonzalez, and moved Phillips to SS and Freel to 2B.
Left Fielders
BA-RNK OBP-RNK SLG-RNK OPS-RNK Reds .250 13 .342 13 .518 5 .861- 5 NL .278 .363 .465 .827 NAME AB BA OBP SLG OPS Dunn 150 .267 .368 .560 .928
The average is up, but the walks are down slightly, and the Ks are actually up. Pretty much the same old Dunn we either love or hate. He’s on pace for his normal 40 HR, 100 RBI, 100 R, and 100 BB season. He is what he is, I say take him for that and quit wishing he was something else.
Center Fielders
BA-RNK OBP-RNK SLG-RNK OPS-RNK Reds .244 13 .323 7 .393 11 .716- 10 NL .265 .330 .408 .738 NAME AB BA OBP SLG OPS Freel 140 .257 .333 .371 .705 Hamilton 119 .261 .336 .521 .857
Freel needs to pick up his walk rate. He’s a deficit if he is not carrying a .360+ OBP.
What can you say about Hamilton? I really think he’s for real. What an awesome swing. He’s basically the Kearns replacement I was hoping we would have spent our FA money on last season instead of getting Gonzalez. He can go a long way to make up for some of the offensive shortcomings that I was expecting from this team this season. He should pretty much be out there in CF every day, not Freel.
Right Fielders
BA-RNK OBP-RNK SLG-RNK OPS-RNK Reds .291 4 .387 1 .544 1 .931- 1 NL .262 .329 .406 .735 NAME AB BA OBP SLG OPS Griffey 125 .304 .414 .544 .958
Griffey is smoking hot. We’ve always known he could still hit. It’s just a matter of whether he stay out there to get 500 ABs.
Defense
FPCT-RNK Reds .979- 14 NL .983 C .994- 5 NL .991 1B .992- 11 NL .992 2B .986- 9 NL .985 3B .932- 13 NL .958 SS .962- 14 NL .971 LF .975- 14 NL .989 CF .984- 8 NL .985 RF .963- 14 NL .977
Defense is still the achilles heal of this team. There was a lot of preseason talk by the Reds that this would be much improved this season due to the signing of Gonzalez and adding him to Phillips and Freel up the middle. The sad truth is, we are still a pitiful defensive team, and it is not a surprise. This solution did nothing about Dunn or Encarnacion’s gloves still being out there or the aging Griffey whose defense appears to be slipping a bit. If the Reds really want to address this issue, it is going to take a major overhaul of the face of this team.
Wrapup
This is a team that I expected to be a slightly under .500 team. They are now a bit worse that that, but I believe that can be mostly attributed to the real bad stretch the bullpen endured. I really don’t see how this team can hope to contend, especially after the bad start, and I’m perplexed that they appear to want to continue to play to win now. My hope is that they soon move some of the young talent who appears to be close to ready, mainly Bailey and Votto, into place and deal some of the veterans who aren’t in the future plans.