This Josh Hamilton story really seems to have legs. Nate Silver at Prospectus has finally run a PECOTA projection for Hamilton. Nate has an interesting explanation of his methodology, but the bottom line:
Hamilton’s 50th Percentile Projection (he’s equally-likely to perform better or worse than this): .254 AVG, .306 OBP, .409 SLG (715 OPS, .243 EQA) in 330 PAs. Not great, but about what Jose Guillen, Preston Wilson and Craig Biggio did last year. Those numbers were disappointing for established veterans, but I think the Reds would take them. They’re certainly a heck of a lot better than the PECOTA projections for his competition (Hopper – 622 OPS; Crosby – 669; Moeller – 552!?). (Denorfia’s projected at 805 OPS, if that really becomes an issue).
So take this projection with a grain of salt. Or maybe even an entire Morton plant. But just for fun, Hamilton’s 75th percentile projection is .274/.328/.452, and his 90th percentile projection is .292/.347/.491.
By way of comparison, that 75th percentile projection works out to be something like Mike Jacobs, or even a better version of Jeff Francoeur. The 90th percentile projection is Jose Reyes. (!)