The following is the status of players on the Reds roster for 2007 as shown in the Cincinnati Post a few days back.:
Current players and ’07 status
Under contract:
Bronson Arroyo (through 2008)
Juan Castro (through 2008)
Rheal Cormier (through 2007)
Adam Dunn (through 2007)
Ryan Freel (through 2007)
Ken Griffey Jr. (through 2008)
Scott Hatteberg (through 2007)
Jason LaRue (through 2007)
Eric Milton (through 2007)
Javier Valentin (through 2007)Potential free agents:
Royce Clayton
Ryan Franklin
Eddie Guardado
Todd Hollandsworth
Jason Johnson
Kent Mercker
Scott Schoeneweis
David WeathersContract options:
Rich Aurilia (mutual)
Paul Wilson (team)Arbitration-eligible:
Grant Balfour
Aaron Harang
Sun-Woo Kim
Kyle Lohse
David RossPre-arbitration:
Matt Belisle
Bill Bray
Brandon Claussen
Todd Coffey
Chris Denorfia
Edwin Encarnacion
Brendan Harris
Norris Hopper
Gary Majewski
Chris Michalak
Ray Olmedo
Brandon Phillips
Elizardo Ramirez
Brian Shackelford
Jason Standridge
Dewayne Wise
So the above is Wayne Krivsky’s starting point for the offseason. I think we all are much anticipating to see how bold his strokes with the roster will be this winter. The following are some of my thoughts on the players above:
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Under contract:
Bronson Arroyo (through 2008)
Great pickup by Krivsky, reasonably priced. Don’t be surprised at falloff next season, this year may have been his career year.
Juan Castro (through 2008)
Everyone needs a backup SS, let’s pray that’s all he ever is for us.
Rheal Cormier (through 2007)
I look, and hope, for him bounce back next season. I did not like the contract extension he was signed to when acquired.
Adam Dunn (through 2007)
Wouldn’t surprise me to see him dealt this offseason as Krivsky reshapes the face of this team. Big question is, can we get equivalent value in return for the best offensive player on this team.
Ryan Freel (through 2007)
Currently a starting OF for us. Probably not his best role as a fulltime player. Could he be on the block too? Could be past the point of selling high with him.
Ken Griffey Jr. (through 2008)
Two more seasons on the contract. Probably not tradeable, cross your fingers and hope for health.
Scott Hatteberg (through 2007)
Since he’s been a regular, he’s been on a rollercoaster, one good season, one bad, one good…… Guess what we are due for this season? I think we jumped the gun signing him for next season, though he was not terribly expensive, he is for a pinch hitter. It would be wise to have a plan B in place for 1B as a big dropoff for the aging Hateberg would not be a surprise at all, if not expected.
Jason LaRue (through 2007)
Most likely to be dealt? Big contract, ready replacement in Ross. He could be a big pickup for someone, I expect him to rebound and have a nice season next year. Will be interesting to see if Krivsky can move him.
Eric Milton (through 2007)
Next year is last season on current contract. He had a 4.8 ERA before his last ill advised start. He improved immensly over his first season. Look for him to be a greatly overpriced solid 3-4 starter next year.
Javier Valentin (through 2007)
Solid backup catcher, swings left, and decent PH. Will be interesting to see if he gets many PH opportunities next season if LaRue is dealt.
Potential free agents:
Royce Clayton
Ryan Franklin
Jason Johnson
Let all three of them walk, please.
Eddie Guardado
Kent Mercker
Both these guys would be candidates for the 2007 DL ride, contract with incentives gig.
Todd Hollandsworth
I wouldn’t be adverse to him being resigned as the 5th OF/LH PH at the right price.
Scott Schoeneweis
David Weathers
I’d be ok with both of these guys being resigned for the pen at the right price. I’d want Weathers back a bit more, Shoenewieiss would be more likely to disappoint in my estimation.
Contract options:
Rich Aurilia (mutual)
I’d promise him the 2B job and hope he picks up his side of the option. Don’t expect him to be quite as good as he was this season, but still very solid, especially for a 2B.
Paul Wilson (team)
They decline the option and offer him a minor league contract or non-guaranteed, incentive laded contract with shot if 5th spot if healthy.
Arbitration-eligible:
Grant Balfour
Is he healthy? If so, I’d offer him arbitration. If he comes back close to full, he’s got a shot at being the closer we need.
Aaron Harang
Only question is, can you sign him long term before he breaks the bank in arbitration?
Sun-Woo Kim
Luke Hudson part two? Great arm, great stuff, couldn’t find the plate with a compass. Let him go.
Kyle Lohse
Huge question mark here. I expect the Reds will roll the dice on his healthy arm and pay him too much to be the 4th/5th starter. I’m not so sure I would though. If I thought I could get a much better pitcher via trade of free agency, I’d use that money there and let Lohse walk.
David Ross
We saw him drop off late season, but we fully expected it. I think he’s still a solid, bit younger replacement for LaRue. He could be the guy to go also if LaRue can’t be dealt. I just hope they get something done with one of them and we don’t have the three catchers thing going on again.
Pre-arbitration:
Matt Belisle
I’d like to see him thrown in the mix with Claussen and Ramirez for the fifth spot next season, at least untiil Bailey arrives.
Bill Bray
Should be the number one LH in the pen next season. He’ll have the opportunity to seize the closer’s role if he’s up to it.
Brandon Claussen
Frontrunner for 5th rotation spot if healthy, and he’s supposed to be.
Todd Coffey
Top setup man in pen. I was disappointed he didn’t step up to the closers role this season. Now we still have a big hole there.
Chris Denorfia
Solid 4th outfielder. I’m sure other don’t, but I still like him much better than Hopper.
Edwin Encarnacion
This will be a big year for him to show he can make progress in the field.
Brendan Harris
He’d be my new Aurilia next season. Backup infielder all the way around the infield and right handed pinch hitter.
Norris Hopper
He’d be the bubble guy on my roster. I prefer Denorfia as the 4th OF, I prefer Harris as a RH pinch hitter. He’d be first guy up from Louisville for me.
Gary Majewski
I think it’s a confidence thing. He saw himself as the centerpiece in the Kearns/Lopez deal and tried to do too much. I don’t think he’s anything more than a setup man, but if they can get his head on right, he’ll do ok for us in that role. Hope so, we are stuck with him.
Brandon Phillips
He’d be my new SS. I’d tell him to go home get healthy, and come in ready to play SS.
Elizardo Ramirez
If healthy, and he should be, he’d be Claussen’s main competition to hold the 5th spot down until they call up Bailey.
Chris Michalak
Ray Olmedo
Brian Shackelford
Jason Standridge
Dewayne Wise
All are 4A players and should be in Louisville barring injuries.
The offseason shopping list should include a closer, a SP, a starting RF, and a 1B.
Feel free to chime in with your thoughts and ideas on how you think the Reds should shape the roster this winter.
Later,
Tom
Agree with Al about Hollandsworth. Aside from not hitting righties, I’d like a backup OF to be fast and reliable in the field. I’d rather have Hopper as the 5th OF, and he’ll be cheaper.
Lohse is worth $5m for one year. He benefitted from switching leagues but also went to a hitter’s park in the process, and pitched well enough for back-end starter. I have more faith in him than Claussen or Belisle at this point.
I’m not sure what Rich Aurilia’s incentive would be to pick up his option. He is coming off of the type of year he used to have back in his hey-day in San Fran. I think the Reds would probably have to promise him the full-time 2B job as well as add an extra year or two to the contract. At a reasonable price, even assuming he can’t repeat this season’s stats again, he might be worth extending through 2008.
Greg – I think 11 starts is a reasonable basis to offer arbitration. If we were talking about a multi-year deal, or only four starts, I’d share your skepticism. But for a solid back-end rotation guy, I think the Reds have seen enough to give him $4-5mm. To me, his biggest issue to me is his control and keeping the walks down. When he’s doing that – this year and in the past – he puts up good results. His BB/9 w/ the Reds was 2.7 (4.57 ERA), 2.2 in ’05 (4.18), and 2.0 in ’03 (4.61). When that ratio is around 3.5 (with the Twins this year, also in ’04), he’s much worse. It’s a risk, but if the front office thinks that his control will be there, he’s worth one year.
Marc Lancaster reported that Grant Balfour was claimed off waivers by the Brewers.
But he might not be drawn by the salary left on an option he signed for when he was looking like a past-his-prime utility player. I’m not saying he doesn’t want to come back, just that it might take a little bit of extra money and security than what his option year has in it.
After the season he had, I don’t know why you wouldn’t make every effort to keep Aurilla on this club. He was one of the few guys still hitting after the allstar break and he played well at every infield position.
I’m still somewhat hesitant to put Phillips at short on a full time basis, but if it keeps Aurilla on the club, I’ll roll with it.
I think the Reds should try to move LaRue and/or Valentin, and get something, anything for one of them. I don’t like the idea of tying up a roster spot with a third catcher for the second consecutive year. Maybe in one of their deals this offseason the Reds could stockpile a minor league catcher prospect in case Ross or whoever ends up being the back-up guy gets injured. Catcher is such an injury-prone position, I feel this would be a wise move.
Bill,
I’m not against moving Phillips back to SS. Its just that during the limited time he was over there this year, he just didn’t look that strong to me. He wasn’t over there that long so it could just be a case of a bad first impression. However, I thought he did a terrific job at 2B. With Aurilla’s age and lack of range, second base does make more sense for him. Given all that, I think its almost a done deal that Phillips will be at SS next year.