John Fay seems to think Kyle Lohse will be back next season.

Right-hander Kyle Lohse made the Reds feel a lot better about their plans for him in 2007. Lohse went six innings Thursday, allowing one run on three hits.

Lohse was 0-3 with a 13.09 ERA in his previous three starts. But he was very good – 2-2 with a 2.89 ERA – in his seven starts before that.

Overall, he is 3-5 with a 4.57 ERA.

Lohse is 27 years old and throws 94 mph, so the Reds are likely to give him a shot to make the rotation.

“He’s our guy,” Narron said. “(But general manager Wayne Krivsky) can move anyone at anytime . . . Lohse has given us some very good games. He’s an experienced guy.”

4.57 is about league average, I’d guess. His WHIP with the Reds is 1.41 and he’s allowed .287/.336/.434 as a Red. On the plus side, his G/F ratio is very good for pitching in GABP (1.49).

According to ESPN, he’s making $3.95M this season and, as stated in the print article (but not on-line for some reason), is arbitration eligible. If you have to go to arbitration with him, he’s going to be making at least $5M next year.

For a pitcher that is, at best, league average, that’s too much.

Could he get better? Yes, but on a team with an actual budget, that’s too big a chunk to risk in the hope that he improves. I’d probably talk to him about a lower deal, but I don’t see any reason that he’d agree to it, but there is no way I offer him arbitration.

6 Responses

  1. Ken

    If it’s just one year at $5 mm, I think he’s worth the risk. He’s entering his prime, has good stuff and a solid g/f ratio. More to the point, though, I don’t think they’ll be able to do better in the FA market (where they’ll have to commit to a multi-year deal), and the internal options for the 3-5 starters are not great. Maybe I’m forgetting someone, but even if you count on Milton and Ramirez pitching decently in ’07, there’s not much beyond that. Claussen seems like a poor bet at this point.

    With Wilson coming off the books (buyout of 850K), there should be room for Lohse.

  2. Ken

    The Oswalt contract (5/$73), by the way, establishes a pricey FA market for SPs this winter. Guys of Zito’s caliber will obviously benefit the most, but there will be a chain reaction affecting all SPs. This year could be worse than the offseason of ’04, when Milton, Benson, Lowe, etc. got $8+/yr on multi-year deals.

  3. Cary

    As of today, Lohse does not seem to be a bad option at that salary level. Of course, alot could change depending on what is available in the offseason. He certainly is a tough call based on what he has done for the Reds. If you recall, he had trouble with his walk rate in Minny, yet with the Reds he has had an excellent K/BB ration. And a starter working in the 93-95 range with his fastball is just something the Reds do not have in the rotation but desperately need. Like many, he seems to rise and fall on getting his breaking pitches over. From what I saw of last night’s start, he was locking folks up with a hard biting slider, which is the case when he is on.

  4. Ken

    I think Matt Morris is in line to start the makeup game against his old team.

  5. Glenn

    Lohse, reminds me alot of Luke Hudson. When he’s on he’s pretty good. When he’s off, he’s absolutely horrible.