By my count, the team has averaged 4.47 Runs per game in the Post-Kearns/Lopez era. That is a full-season pace of 724 runs, which would’ve ranked 7th in the NL last year (The Real Reds scored 820, and ranked first).
Before The Trade, the Reds scored 447 runs in 89 games (5.02 per game). That’s an 814 pace – almost exactly what they scored in 2005 (5.05 per game). I’m not blaming the entire second-half drop-off on The Trade, but it didn’t help. The stated purpose was to improve the pitching and defense. Did that work?
After The Trade, the Reds have allowed 4.75 runs per game (770 over 162 games). That would’ve tied Pittsburgh for 13th in the 16-team NL. (The Real 2005 Reds allowed 5.45/889/Last).
Before The Trade, the Reds were allowing 5.25 runs per game (850 pace – would’ve been just behind PIT at 14th, last year).
2005: 5.03 Scored, 5.45 Allowed. (73-89 record, 75-87 Pythagorean record)
2006 1st Half: 5.02 Scored, 5.52 Allowed. (45-43 record, 40-48 Pythag. record).
2006 2nd Half: 4.47 Scored, 4.75 Allowed. (28-30 record, 27-31 Pythag. record).
The team’s Pythagorean winning pct. actually improved in the second half (.470, compred to .453), which surprises me. That may be due to a smaller sample size, and a couple of 14-run games thrown in there. Or probably bad math, since I think their Pythag. winning pct is closer to .490 on the year.
[NOTE: I know I’m off by a run and maybe even a game somewhere in here, but I’m not going back to find it]
[UPDATED:Ã‚Â Joel corrected my numbers, below.Ã‚Â I didn’t double-check him, but you can assume he’s more accurate than me.]