By my count, the team has averaged 4.47 Runs per game in the Post-Kearns/Lopez era. That is a full-season pace of 724 runs, which would’ve ranked 7th in the NL last year (The Real Reds scored 820, and ranked first).

Before The Trade, the Reds scored 447 runs in 89 games (5.02 per game). That’s an 814 pace – almost exactly what they scored in 2005 (5.05 per game). I’m not blaming the entire second-half drop-off on The Trade, but it didn’t help. The stated purpose was to improve the pitching and defense. Did that work?

After The Trade, the Reds have allowed 4.75 runs per game (770 over 162 games). That would’ve tied Pittsburgh for 13th in the 16-team NL. (The Real 2005 Reds allowed 5.45/889/Last).

Before The Trade, the Reds were allowing 5.25 runs per game (850 pace – would’ve been just behind PIT at 14th, last year).

2005: 5.03 Scored, 5.45 Allowed. (73-89 record, 75-87 Pythagorean record)
2006 1st Half: 5.02 Scored, 5.52 Allowed. (45-43 record, 40-48 Pythag. record).
2006 2nd Half: 4.47 Scored, 4.75 Allowed. (28-30 record, 27-31 Pythag. record).

The team’s Pythagorean winning pct. actually improved in the second half (.470, compred to .453), which surprises me. That may be due to a smaller sample size, and a couple of 14-run games thrown in there. Or probably bad math, since I think their Pythag. winning pct is closer to .490 on the year.
[NOTE: I know I’m off by a run and maybe even a game somewhere in here, but I’m not going back to find it]

[UPDATED:  Joel corrected my numbers, below.  I didn’t double-check him, but you can assume he’s more accurate than me.]

5 Responses

  1. orangeandbrown

    I think that’s exactly right. What if we had kept Kearns/Lopez, and went and got all those other pitchers anyway–most of whom we got by giving away nobody (despite being told at the time of The Trade that this was the price you had to pay for pitching).

    I’m not totally down on the trade. It could still work out, though I doubt it. I think many Reds fans-including me-probably overvalue Kearns and Lopez. However, Bray and Majewski have some ground to cover before we see them as being the kind of middle relivers you would trade an everyday player for.

    Remember how excited Jerry Narron was to get Royce Clayton? 😯

  2. Joel

    Some corrections, because I’m anal like that:
    pre-trade: 45-44 actual record
    RS: 448 (5.03 R/G)
    RA: 462 (5.20 R/G)
    Pythag: 43-46

    post-trade: 28-30 actual record
    RS: 255 (4.40 R/G)
    RA: 271 (4.67 R/G)
    Pythag: 27-31

    total season: 73-74 actual record
    RS: 703 (4.78 R/G)
    RA: 734 (4.99 R/G)
    Pythag: 71-76

    So their pythag record wasn’t as bad as you listed for the first half. Not sure where you got the pitching numbers, but that looks like where the problem is.

  3. al

    thing is you should look at just the bullpen numbers when you look at the runs allowed, since that’s what we were supposedly addressing. they actually improved quite a bit, but were balanced by our starting pitching falling off.

  4. Anonymous

    Why are we STILL talking about this trade

  5. Joel

    Chris, rumor has it that I have this utility belt that does all of this data manipulation for me, but really it’s just a bunch of spreadsheets. As you know, any good stathead would rather look at spreadhseets than a real game. 😛