I was thinking today that Ryan Freel looks tired. I was also thinking that he’s played a heck of a lot lately, and the conventional wisdom (and my gut feeling) is that his play declines with over-exposure.
Let’s take a quick look. He’s started 27 of the past 30 games, and he pinch hit in one of the other three. This month, playing in all but 1 game, he has a .239, .370, .284(!) 654 line. He’s getting walks, but that’s about it. He’s 5 of 8 in steal attempts (well below his 79% success rate going into the month). So we know Freel’s been playing a lot, but not playing particularly well.
Has this been going on all season? I look at all the stretches where Freel starts more than 5 games in a row. The number is totally arbitrary, but was my best guess for what would be a fatigue point for the scrappy little fellow.
I found five instances where he started more than 5 consecutive games. I decided to only look at the games after game 5, when he would be expected to be feeling the fatigue. (I also ignored scheduled off days, though I probably shouldn’t have, now that I think of it. A day off is a day off, though not if travel is concerned.)
Freel He started 10 games in a row from April 13-22, after Junior got hurt in Chicago. In games 6-10, he went 5 for 19, with 4 BB, 5 K, 2/3 steals, and 0 extra-base hits. Okay AVG, good OBP, terrible SLG.
Nine in a row from 4/24 to 5/3: In games 6-9, 3 for 13, 1 2b, 0 BB, 0 K, 0/0 SB.
Seven in a row from 6/19 to 6/25: In games 6-7, 1 for 7, 1 2b, 1 BB, 1 K, 0/0 SB.
Nine in a row from 7/19 to 7/28 (after Denorfia flopped): In games 6-9, 6 for 17, 2 2b, 1 3b, 1 BB, 4 K, 1/1 SB
Fourteen in a row (8/7 to current): In games 6-14: 9 for 38, 1 2b, 5 BB, 10 K, 3/5 SB.
So, after “extended play,” Freel is a combined: 24 for 94 (.255 AVG), with 11 BB (.333 OBP), 20 K, 5 2b, 1 3b (.330 SLG), and 6/9 SB. I don’t know if this is a fair survey, but the same size isn’t tiny, and it shows that Freel IS pretty lousy when he doesn’t get his rest. He also strikes out a ton.
Let’s compare those numbers to the rest of the season:
“Tired” .255 .333 .330 663 OPS 1.8 K per BB; 1 K per 5.25 PAs, 67% Steal rate. (105 PAs)
“Rested” .296 .377 .467 844 OPS 1.4 K per BB; 1 K per 6.10 PAs, 79% Steal rate. (305 PAs)
Wow. Anyone want to pass this on to Jerry Narron? Makes a pretty strong argument for resting the little fellow once a week, no? I don’t know enough about the numbers to be sure that the sample size is sufficient – though it’s a solid 1/4 of his season. (I may well have screwed up some of the math, for that matter).
And of course, even “Tired Ryan Freel” is probably more effective than than Todd Hollandsworth, so I’m not sure what Narron can do about this.
[Note: All stats ignore Sac Flies and HBP, since those aren’t on the main espn.com Game Log page They shouldn’t affect the numbers much, if at all.]