Yesterday, I posted some depressing numbers in the comments section:
Runs per game before the trade:
Reds: 5.03 (89 games)
Nats: 4.52 (90 games)
Reds: 4.44 (18 games)
Nats: 5.28 (18 games)
After Thurdsay’s debacle, the Reds’ post-trade scoring average is down to 4.21 per game.
Someone over on another comment board noticed the same thing, but was met with the question “is that any worse than the nightmare funk in May or the other one in June?” My gut said this had to be the worst stretch, but I figured I’d look.
Surprisingly, there have been worse stretches than this one. I looked at all 10 and 19 game stretches this season (in the process, learning a new spreadsheet function). Ten, because it’s the natural; nineteen, because that’s how many games they’ve played since
the big trade.
On the season: 4.88 runs per game.
Since the trade: 4.21
Last 10 games: 3.3
This is darn close to the worst 10-game stretch of the season. Only the stretch in late June was worse – from June 14-25 (11 games), the Reds scored 35 runs. That run started with a 3-0 win at Milwaukee, then the White Sox series, and the trips to New York and Cleveland. The odd thing is the team only went 5-6 in that stretch.
As for 19-game stretches, the Post-Trade Era can’t be described as the worst. Yet. A few 19-games groupings around that same horrible 10-game stretch are worse (hitting a low of 3.95 in the 19-game span actually starting with the second game of the three-game sweep of the Cards on June 6, and running through the middle of the series at Cleveland.
What does this mean? Well, the offense did play this badly when Kearns and Lopez were here. On the other hand, the “new” offense has not played as well as the old offense at all, and shows little hope of doing so. In the first half, the Reds would regularly score 5, 6, and even more runs per game for 10-15 game stretches. I see no reason to believe that this new offense will be able run off 10 games where they average 5.0 – 5.5 runs per game. The best the “new” offense has done is 4.8, in their first 10 games after the trade.
I thought the trade would hurt, but not this much. Obviously, the cool-down of Phillips and Ross, and the continued sad, not-so-slow decline of Ken Griffey aren’t helping.
After the jump is a (very poorly put together) chart, showing the team’s rolling, 10-game scoring average. The first data point represents the team’s average run production for games 1-10, the second is for games 2-11, etc.
The first data point represents the team’s average run production for games 1-10, the second is for games 2-11, etc.