Yesterday, I posted some depressing numbers in the comments section:

Runs per game before the trade:
Reds: 5.03 (89 games)
Nats: 4.52 (90 games)


Reds: 4.44 (18 games)
Nats: 5.28 (18 games)

After Thurdsay’s debacle, the Reds’ post-trade scoring average is down to 4.21 per game.

Someone over on another comment board noticed the same thing, but was met with the question “is that any worse than the nightmare funk in May or the other one in June?” My gut said this had to be the worst stretch, but I figured I’d look.

Surprisingly, there have been worse stretches than this one. I looked at all 10 and 19 game stretches this season (in the process, learning a new spreadsheet function). Ten, because it’s the natural; nineteen, because that’s how many games they’ve played since
the big trade.

On the season: 4.88 runs per game.

Since the trade: 4.21

Last 10 games: 3.3

This is darn close to the worst 10-game stretch of the season. Only the stretch in late June was worse – from June 14-25 (11 games), the Reds scored 35 runs. That run started with a 3-0 win at Milwaukee, then the White Sox series, and the trips to New York and Cleveland. The odd thing is the team only went 5-6 in that stretch.

As for 19-game stretches, the Post-Trade Era can’t be described as the worst. Yet. A few 19-games groupings around that same horrible 10-game stretch are worse (hitting a low of 3.95 in the 19-game span actually starting with the second game of the three-game sweep of the Cards on June 6, and running through the middle of the series at Cleveland.

What does this mean? Well, the offense did play this badly when Kearns and Lopez were here. On the other hand, the “new” offense has not played as well as the old offense at all, and shows little hope of doing so. In the first half, the Reds would regularly score 5, 6, and even more runs per game for 10-15 game stretches. I see no reason to believe that this new offense will be able run off 10 games where they average 5.0 – 5.5 runs per game. The best the “new” offense has done is 4.8, in their first 10 games after the trade.

I thought the trade would hurt, but not this much. Obviously, the cool-down of Phillips and Ross, and the continued sad, not-so-slow decline of Ken Griffey aren’t helping.

After the jump is a (very poorly put together) chart, showing the team’s rolling, 10-game scoring average. The first data point represents the team’s average run production for games 1-10, the second is for games 2-11, etc.


The first data point represents the team’s average run production for games 1-10, the second is for games 2-11, etc.

8 Responses

  1. Ken

    … and depressing. I thought that the recent cool-down could be largely explained by slumps from some of the remaining regulars, but I’m not sure if that’s right. In July, only Philips and Griffey hit poorly. Ross actually maintained his out-of-his-mind OPS (1.032 in July versus 1.052 on the season), which surprised me. Several other regulars (Dunn, Hatteberg, Freel and Aurilia) hit significantly better than their season averages in July.

    I only looked at the monthly splits, not the ten or nineteen game periods, but this seems to show that the offense – minus Kearns and Lopez – has recently performed roughly the same as it has all year. Which places the blame for the post-trade scoring drought on the downgrades at SS and RF.

  2. dcstreet

    They call it opinions – not all of us think alike or state it in the same fashion. I too also appreciate the fact that I am listening on my XM every night and have hope this late in the season. Go Reds win or lose !!!! 😀

  3. Dan Dumoulin

    I think it is safe to assume that the people who read and post to this site aren’t doing it because they want an outlet to vent their frustrations about life… they are doing it because they love baseball and the Reds… every single person on this site is happy to still have something to care about on August 4th.. and if everybody was just “happy to be here” there wouldn’t be much to talk about, would there?

  4. Dan Dumoulin

    Doesn’t fit this topic, but two things have really jumped out at me this season and I wondered if anybody has noticed… the Reds pitching staff (in general) seems to do very little “following through” in the classic sense.. this weeks Sporting News has a picture of Francisco Liriano following through on a pitch…weight moving fully toward home plate, front knee at a 90 degree angle.. arm fully extended and in a straight line with his shoulders… in watching most of the Reds pitchers, they seem to be doing more throwing with their arm and not taking advantage of their legs and weight shift..anybody else notice this or see the same thing I am seeing? Just curious.. I don’t expect them to all look like Tom Seaver (absolutely the best follow through and use of mound/rubber/momentum you will ever see), but so many seem to have a “stand straight up and toss it” approach.
    Also, now that amphetamines are being tested for, have you ever seen so many double chins in the sport? I was watching the 1990 World Series videotape… the physiques of those guys are amazing when compared to the pudgy, bloated look of so many guys across the Bigs.. has to be the greenies being gone, nothing else makes sense.

  5. pete

    For example, no one ever seems to praise Narron for his two or three good decisions during the game

    Name ’em.

  6. Dan Dumoulin

    Why doesn’t Griffey take batting practice with the team? I realize he does his “own thing” and by all accounts works very hard… but is it his career numbers that give him special dispensation to do things his own way and not participate in team practices?

  7. Dan Dumoulin

    There are still guys who pitch that way, but certainly not as many. I can’t help but wonder why not.. you may be more out of position defensively the “old way”, but so much power comes from the legs that I wonder why it isn’t stressed anymore.

  8. Sam

    Tonight’s starting lineup…

    Douche bag Clayton batting 2nd

    Freel RF
    Clayton SS
    Griffey CF
    Aurilia 1B
    Encarnacion 3B
    Phillips 2B
    Denorfia LF
    LaRue C
    Harang P