Okay, in my original post, I said that I was going to let the two trades sink in before I commented on them. Then I proceeded to give some not-so-subtle hints about what I really thought.
I’ve had some time to think about the deals, and I’ve come to some conclusions. I was completely and absolutely wrong on Monday.
Well, maybe it’s not so clear cut as that. But my initial reaction was to be happy with the Cormier trade, and disgusted with the Lohse deal. I’ve changed my mind on both.
Obtaining Rheal Cormier was not a good idea at all, in my opinion. The guy’s about fifty years old, and his recent history inspires very little confidence that his 2006 numbers aren’t a bit of a fluke. Plus, they signed this old guy to a contract extension, which is money wasted. Well, I don’t believe that, exactly, but it’s certainly a very poor risk. That money could have been better spent elsewhere.
All in all, I’d rather have young, cheap Justin Germano. He won’t be a star, but he’s alright.
With respect to Kyle Lohse, a look at his career numbers caused me to re-think my initial opposition to the trade. This is the kind of guy that the Reds should be taking risks on.
Lohse is 27 years old, and as recently as last year, he was a better-than-league-average pitcher. I think there’s reason to believe that Lohse got himself out of whack because of relationships in Minnesota (he’s young, and more than a little immature, certainly), and that the always-mentioned “change of scenery” could really benefit the guy.
If Lohse can get his mojo back, we’re looking at a hard-throwing pitcher who will be entering his prime, all while wearing a wishbone-c on his cap. If not, we’ve lost a good prospect, no question about it…but I think it was a good risk to take, nonetheless.
In the end, I couldn’t reconcile my opposition to the Lohse acquisition with my opposition to Wayne Krivsky’s shameless handling of Dave Williams, whom he DFA’d without thinking twice. In that case, Krivsky overreacted. There was no reason to send Williams packing (while he still had minor league options and could be sent to AAA). He had established himself as a league-average pitcher before this season, and he has yet to reach his peak age.
Those types of pitchers don’t just fall off the face of the earth without some explanation (usually injury).
Lohse, for what it’s worth, shows signs of a much higher upside than Williams, as he’s been an above-average pitcher in the past. Now, that’s not to say that I’m not concerned that Lohse will be a head case here, too, but I believe he’s worth the risk.
So, in the end, Krivsky got one right and one wrong; my first reaction just switched the two. From my perch, fifty percent is fairly consistent with Krivsky’s batting average for the season. Some good deals, some bad ones. One great one, one disastrous one.
I don’t speak for Redleg Nation here. I’m in disagreement with most of the other Redleg Nation editors on this one, and that’s fine. The blog is more fun when we don’t all agree.
I encourage the other editors to put up a post of their own with their thoughts, or just agree/disagree with me in the comments below. I fully expect that the rest of you will let me know what you think, as well.
i disagree with you. i think cormier is good at what he does which is get leftys out and will be a good adition to a completely retooled bullpen…and wasnt the extension for just one year? not a bad idea…i think lohse would have been a good addition during spring training but not now. then they could have seen if they could turn him around, and if by may he still sucked they could look elsewhere. i think germano could do just as well as lohse will down the stretch and now you might get burned throwing lohse in a playoff race, just trying to see if he’ll be any good, he may end up costing you games you wouldnt have lost….i think the cormier deal outweighs the lohse deal and id give krivsky a b- overall, but this is just coming from a hopelessly optimistic cubs fan
In response to Bill’s questions:
Yes. Maybe.
But, Kyle, Lohse didn’t “suck” until this season. It’s not like he put up a 7+ ERA in the last two seasons or something. So they couldn’t have gotten him in the Spring.
And Cormier is just a bad risk. How are we to know that he won’t pitch like he did last year? Or if he pitches decently the rest of the year, aren’t chances still very, very good that he is bad next year.
Lohse can be non-tendered and then resigned if he proves to not be worth the capital…or he can sign elsewhere…you DO NOT have to go to arbitartion with him if you do not want to.
Cormier would only approve the trade with the extension. So, you either got him and did the extension, or you passed on the trade. Krivsky did not have the option to just get him for the last two months of this season
I just don’t get the rationale behind some of these trades. GregD mentions the relievers in AA that the organization seemed to have forgotten about and this team that was young and exciting at the beginning of the year and launched them into the pennant race seems to be turning into a boring slow team that seems old. I realize Bray and “The Majic Man” are still young but we traded alot of young decent talent, in the majors and minors, for guys that are on their last legs.