JD finally has his thoughts up on the big trade:

So I’ve thought about it, and I can honestly say that this is the worst trade the Reds have made in my lifetime.

Now, you might think I’m being a bit over the top, but seriously, what else comes close? Paul O’Neill for Roberto Kelly? Kelly was a pretty fine player when he came over, and he had a couple of decent seasons for the Reds, so yeah, I think this is it.

Here’s the thing. Reds fans have certain blind spots. Everyone says that a team’s fans overvalue it’s players, and I agree to an extent, but I also think a team’s fans undervalue what the team has in abundance, and overvalue what it lacks. We all are massively overvaluing relief pitching.

Relief pitching shouldn’t cost what the Reds gave up today. Wayne Krivsky even agrees, he said as much in his press conference. Relief pitching is the cheapest asset in the game, and WayneK just gave up a massive amount to get some.

He just made the biggest mistake a GM can make. He saw a need, and decided that he was going to fill it, come hell or high water. It’s kind of thinking that led to most of what Dan O’Brien did wrong.

We’re going to feel sick in two weeks when we see middle relievers getting traded for far less than an Austin Kearns or a Felipe Lopez.

And let’s make this clear, I’m not against dealing these two players. I loved watching them play, but I’ve always known they were two of our bigger chips. I’m against dealing them for a couple of middle relievers and Royce Clayton.

This is a good point that I hadn’t expressed before. Austin Kearns and Felipe Lopez were two of my four favorite Reds (along with Dunn and Junior, with EdE coming on fast)…but I wasn’t necessarily against trading them. If the Reds could improve by moving these guys, I wouldn’t argue with it.

I just wish we’d gotten something close to equal value. We didn’t, and it wasn’t particularly close.

16 Responses

  1. Cary

    How can anyone watch this era of baseball and say that the bullpen is being overvalued? What is usually the worm turner both in a pennant race and the postseason in this era? Yes, a solid bullpen that can hold leads for starters that are trained to give 6-7 innings. And if relievers are coming so cheap and so unimportant, why do so many teams bullpens suck so bad? What kind of bullpen do the best teams in the majors have right now?

  2. Tom

    I feel a lot better now come the 6th.-7th. innings after this trade. Before it was a sinking feeling and visions of the Reds falling with a thug above the Cubs and Pirates. Top brass wants to win now – I give them credit.

  3. The Mad Hatter

    I’ve been trying to think how it only cost us Travis Chick for Eddie Guardado and cash for the pitcher that will be our closer and it’s costs 2 everyday players for the players we got in return. Does this make our bullpen better? Absolutely but at what cost. I think Denofria will perform at the same if not above Kearns level but I don’t understand the infield situation. Aurilia/Hatteberg at first ok, not great but ok, Phillips at second works but why isn’t moving over to shortstop don’t know that one. Clayton at SS come on this guy thinks so highly of himself in every interview it makes me sick not to have Freel at second and Phillips at SS and Encarncion at 3b talk about in the dog house. In my humble opinion an infield of Hatteberg/Aurilia/Freel at 1b and 2b with Phillips at SS and Encarncion as the everyday 3b is by far and away the best combination we have but I don’t think we will be seeing it very often.

  4. Jake

    Phillips will move to SS next season. They are not going to move him during the middle of the season. It doesn’t make sense.

    Secondly, you cannot declare a trade to be the worst ever until the players have had a chance to prove themselves. The O’Neill for Kelly trade wasn’t declared the worst ever until several seasons passed. We should all hold the same judgment. It is unfair to do so otherwise.

  5. Pinski

    Why doesn’t it make sense? If castro and aurilia can play 3 or 4 different positions during the season why doesn’t it make sense to move a guy who is probably our best defender to the position he played most of his minor league career.

    O’Neill for Kelly as worst ever? What planet are you living on.

    Who is it unfair to? The Reds players? The GM? We should hapless accept the GM’s logic and brilliant wisdom? Yeah and I have a bridge that I would like to sell you.

    The players involved aren’t really prospects, so there is nothing to prove. Kearns and Lopez were above average offensive everyday players. Clayton is a piece of junk nobody. Majewski is a league average relievr. Bray may be a future closer, but hasn’t really shown anyone that he can dominate. Two everday players almost never have the same value as two relievers. Relievers pitch no more than 100 IP, starters play 140-160 games a year. The value just isn’t there.

  6. Chad

    daedalus, I’d be ecstatic to enjoy a huge helping of crow from the buffet. I’d enjoy nothing more because it would mean that the Reds were doing well, and that’s what I want.

    But I don’t agree with your analysis at all. What it comes down to, for me, is that you never, ever, trade two above-average everyday players for two non-closer relief pitchers. I can’t see any situation at all that would demand such a trade.

    Yes, we need relievers, and I like Majewski and Bray. But Krivsky overpaid, big time.

    But again, if it turns out that you are right, I’ll happily admit it and I’ll be first in line at that buffet.

  7. Pinski

    Yeah Deadalus, it 1990 had nothing to do with the starting pitching. 4 starters above league average. 5 if you count Norm’s run in the starting rotation.
    We might have 2 (and I’m really still not sold on Arroyo, but since everyone else seems to I’ll give him to you).

    We also don’t have the defense we had in 1990. Royce Clayton is an upgrade over Felipe but by how much? 2 inches? Denorfia may be a defensive upgrade, but I’m pretty sure his arm is not as good as Kearns.

    Do not compare this bullpen to the 1990 Nasty Boys. Comparing three guys in their prime (26-28) who as relievers had K/9 higher than 9 do not equate to any combinations of three bullpen pitchers we have right now.

  8. Mr. Z

    i still think when we traded Frank Robinson is still the worst trade in reds history by far

  9. Philip

    4 ABOVE AVERAGE STARTERS IN 1990?

    Anyways, anyone notice that the White Sox are doing okay without Magglio or Clarlos Lee, both All-Stars that couldn’t help bring them a ring.
    I’m not saying this trade will, but I’m not so ignorant as to not wait and see!

    One more thing, I also can’t stand Clayton, and see BP at short and Freel at 2b. I hope soon!!!

  10. Pinski

    go look at the stats and if that doesn’t refresh your memory, not sure what will.

    Guess how many above average starters the White Sox had last year? 4.

  11. Philip

    Well, Pinski, maybe I’m too dumb to have my memory refreshed, and maybe you don’t know what above average really is.

    By the way, you know why the CHiSox had those pitchers, because they were willing to let some “good players” go.

    Were on an upswing, not just this year, but in the future.

  12. Pinski

    Well tell me what above average really is?

    As for how they “got” those pitchers:
    Beurhle was drafted.
    Garland was obtained by trade for Matt Karchner.
    Garcia was obtained for two prospects.
    Contreras was obtained for Estaban Loiaza.

    Even look at their bullpen:
    Hermanson signed as a free agent – 2 million
    Neil Cotts was part of the awful Billy Koch for Keith Foulke deal.
    Cliff Politte was signed as a free agent – 1 million
    Damaso Marte was obtained by trade for Matt Guerrier.
    Bobby Jenks picked up on waivers.
    Luis Vizcaino obtained in the trade for Lee.

    They let Magglio go because they thought he was done and couldn’t afford the amount he was asking.
    Lee was traded for a regular and a pitcher. If they had traded Lee for just Vizcaino, it would have been declared an awful trade on the same level (if not worse) as the one committed thursday.

  13. Philip

    OOOOH you’re so up to date on everything. Man, guys like you always miss the big picture.

    You let some guys go, you pick a guy up here and there, like you just listed, you spend money wisely, and you win.

    Stop overanalyzing crap. Unless you work for ESPN you should never have known all that crap off the top of your head. Just watch the game, let it play out…let this trade play out.

    You might be surprised and have some fun.

    One more thing….your above average and mine are way toooo different.
    I’m right, but different!!! LOL

  14. Pinski

    The big picture:
    Our offense is not as good as it was on Wednesday.
    The defense might be slightly better than it was on Wednesday (for that to be true Denorfia must be as good as or better than Kearns).
    The bullpen is improved, by how much? 5 or 6 runs? 24 if we are extremely luck (50 IP each and a 2.80 ERA)

    Eric Milton still sucks.
    Arroyo, in my opinion, is pitching over his head.
    Joe Mays, and Juan Castro are still on the team, hurting the offense and pitching everytime they are allowed on the field.

    Overanalyzing? Its called an argument. You said something and countered with evidence to show you are wrong. Then you basically insult me great argument.

    What does above average mean?

  15. Chad

    Go look at Castro’s hitting numbers. There is a very good argument to be made that he is the worst “hitter” in the majors.

    Anyone can get on a hot streak. But ignoring a hitter’s multi-year record and hoping he’s good all of a sudden just because he has a couple of good weeks is not smart.

    Castro sucks.

  16. Brian B.

    JD nailed it, and you capped it off Chad. There relaly isn’t much else to say about the trade. Other than saying how bad it was over and over, that is. Because apparently some people aren’t getting it.