The Cincinnati Reds overhauled their rickety bullpen Thursday, getting Gary Majewski and Bill Bray in an eight-player trade that sent outfielder Austin Kearns and shortstop Felipe Lopez to the Washington Nationals.
The playoff-hopeful Reds also acquired shortstop Royce Clayton, infielder Brendan Harris and pitcher Daryl Thompson from the last-place Nationals.
Clayton most likely would replace Lopez, who made the All-Star Game last year. The Reds gave up reliever Ryan Wagner, a first-round pick in 2004 who has struggled the last two seasons.
I take back everything good I’ve ever said about Reds GM Wayne Krivsky. Jim Bowden robbed Krivsky today.
This is very disappointing. Can anyone defend this trade?
UPDATE: Take a look at what Keith Law (of ESPN, formerly of Baseball Prospectus) has to say about the trade:
Do you think Jim Bowden took a little pleasure in thoroughly robbing the organization that fired him in 2003? If not, perhaps he should, because he just pushed the Reds to the back of the NL playoff queue, and in the process picked up three players who entered the Reds’ organization while he was their GM.
The Nationals were widely expected to be sellers in the July trade market, and that may still come to pass, but in this deal, they took on more salary than they gave up. In exchange for a talented left-handed relief prospect and three spare parts, the Nationals just added an above-average corner outfielder, an above-average shortstop, and a talented right-handed relief prospect. Whether they choose to keep Austin Kearns and Felipe Lopez or move them for younger talent, the Nationals won this deal in a rout. …
The jewel in the deal for the Reds is Bill Bray, who was highly touted as a first-round pick in 2004. Bray has an out-pitch slider with a hard, late break to go with an average fastball and good control. He closed in college and should develop into a setup man in the majors, but the odds of his doing so this year (his debut season in the majors) aren’t great. He also has a history of back trouble, which limited him to just 40 innings in 2005.
The real problem here for Cincinnati is that the other players they acquired just aren’t any good. Royce Clayton was once a defensive whiz who would hit just enough to be a contributor, but his offense is so bad today that he makes Rafael Belliard look like Cal Ripken at the plate. Since the start of the 2000 season, Clayton has hit .258/.313/.369. And his defensive abilities have declined, much as you would expect they would for a player moving through his late 30s. As a glove off the bench acquired at no cost, Clayton is still a questionable use of a spot on the 25-man roster, but if the Reds intend to give him any of the playing time freed up by the trade of Lopez, they’re shooting themselves in the foot.
Gary Majewski has two average pitches in his fastball and slider, but no real out pitch, no weapon to use against left-handed batters, and below-average control. He has moderate sink on his fastball, which is important in Cincinnati’s home park, but isn’t enough to make him more than an 11th or 12th man on their staff. Brendan Harris is a utility player who isn’t good defensively and who has never had much patience at the plate; he’s a 4-A guy who won’t find playing time in Cincinnati with Ryan Freel, Rich Aurilia, Brandon Phillips, Juan Castro, and now Clayton all on the roster.
The Reds’ apparent strategy here — trading some of their offensive depth for pitching help — is sensible, but their specific choices here make no sense. I don’t see any way in which trading two of the top 50 hitters in the league for questionable relievers helps the Reds. The most charitable analysis would say that they’ve acquired 50-60 better bullpen innings at the cost of 400-450 good plate appearances, but given the volatility of reliever performance and Majewski’s wildness, there’s a good chance that the Reds won’t see any benefit in their pen as a result of this deal. Had the Reds traded some spare parts or even good prospects for Majewski and Bray, I could understand it, but they have probably now taken the league’s second- or third-best offense and made it merely average.
The Nationals, on the other hand, acquired a lot more talent than they gave up, and in doing so acquired the trade’s top two players, both of whom are under control through the end of 2008.
I’m sick to my stomach.
the general consensus i’m reading now is that it’s a better deal than it looks for the reds, but that that makes it about fair.
harris looks pretty decent, i wouldn’t be surprised to see him top felo’s numbers this year for less money next year.
The Reds are a better team after the trade, period. Krivsky is turning this team from a big-bat offensive juggernaut to a defensive/pitching team. He said he was going to do this and I’m glad he’s doing it. It hurts because Kearns and Lopez are our buddies but if this teams makes the Wild Card, this trade will be a big part of it. It’s a seller’s market and you’ve got to give up something to get something. Keep at it Wayne!!!!!!!!!!!
absolutely right CW, i remember the blood in people’s eyes here in boston after the nomar trade in ’04, but the series made theo a genius. if we make the playoffs, it’ll be “in krivsky we trust” next year.
If not, he’ll be the mini-bowden, always to quick to make a deal, and in the end robbed by his counterpart.
Also, I just listened to the press conference and the Reds saved between 1.3 & 1.5 million. This may allow for some more trades before the deadline.
I wouldn’t be surprised if there is another move to be made. Krivsky can’t have picked up more infielders if he wasn’t going to move another (at this point, it looks like Encarnacion).
If Denorfia can replace Kearns for less money, and they take said money and resign Harang or sign a starting pitcher, then it makes sense.
What’s the word on Ross? Will they put him on the DL for the week (with it being retroactive) just to allow for all the infielders to be on the team?
Don’t feel bad — we Washington Nationals’ fans are just as stunned as you are. Bray might be a good one in time (he was a #1 pick a couple of years ago), but Harris is at best a 4th infielder type. Clayton was doing a good job this year offensively, but he has limited range with the glove. Majewski is a sold middle reliever, but middle relievers just aren’t that valuable. Unless I am missing something, I think Bowden (usually the flecee) did the fleecing today.
And I am sorry — I know how what it feels like — trust me.
Keith Law sure didn’t like the trade, according to the update above (in the post). Ouch.
my question: is he done?
thompson is a good enough starting pitching prospect that if packaged could bring a decent rent-a-player.
this is obviously complete speculation, but i wonder if the deal would seem better if we spun javon moran, josh hall, and thompson for jason schmidt.
felo
kearns
wagner
moran
hall
schmidt
maj
bray
harris
clayton
i’d feel pretty good about making the playoffs this year i think.
Majewski, Coffey and Guardado will never be Sullivan, Graves and Williamson (of ’99)
Let’s give Krivsky a chance on this deal. He picked up Ross, Arroyo, and Phillips this year, maybe he knows something we don’t again. Another deal may be in the near future.
I sure hope Milt Pappas pitches well for us!
Royce Clayton
Juan Castro
Quinton McCracken
Joe Mays
Yeah, the guy (Krivsky) got Arroyo and Phillips, but he’s compiling quite a record of idiocy, as well.
Reds win this one with an upgrade in pitching. Denorfia steps in for Kearns and Brandon Phillips eventually takes over at shortstop. Freel, Olmedo, or Bergolla at second. Pitching and defense is the key to winning.
and keith law is an idiot. his whole schtik is ripping someone apart, he doesn’t actually analize anything. by what measure is felipe lopez one of the top 50 hitters in the league, what a joke.
on their own site felo is 67th in ops in the NL, and that ain’t sayin much. add on top of that how much he gives back in the field, and he’s been average at very best this year, and well below average every other year in the majors save last.
we got two of their top 10 prospects and a good relief pitcher who throws a lot of innings for austin kearns. about what i would have expected.
we got a minor leaguer who can replace felo and a major leaguer who can replace felo for felo. fine by me.
and we got them to take ryan wagner (who law calls a talented relief prospect). sounds effing great to me.
Says who?
i don’t know who tyler is, but i was referring to mlbtraderumors.com (guy who writes for hardball times) and a couple of other blogs/discussion boards that i read.
thoughts from SOSH tend to the negative, but there’s plenty of this too:
“the reds did a fine job here. their bullpen was a train wreck, and they improved a great deal there today. bray could be a steal for them
lopez has regressed, kearns is a glorified fourth outfielder. just because the names are more familiar doesn’t mean they’re better players.
you make a deal to improve your team’s chances to win. the reds did that today.
john sickles projects harris to be a tony graffinino type. He had Bray, Harris, and Thompson as the nats 3rd, 5th, and 10th best prospects before the season.
http://www.minorleagueball.com/story/2006/7/5/12917/00747
they’re relievers, who, by their very nature, are questionable (not good enough to close, not good enough to start)
I was initially outraged by this trade. After I calming down, I am feeling a lot better about it. Like Al said, I think the shock results from the fact that Kearns and Lopez are everday players and their names are fairly well known around the league. The name recoginition factor makes it easy for sportswriters (Law) and fans to bash this trade from the Red’s point of view.
Let’s face it: The Reds were not going anywhere this year with that bullpen. This move at least gives them a chance at making the playoffs.
bray closed in college and and a k rate above 10 through all of the minors, that’s not really questionable. he could easily be the reds next closer imo, but set up is clearly important too, if that’s where people see him.
chris you’re just not looking at defense at all. giving the other team hits with poor range and errors isn’t inconsequential just because it’s not part of .slg.
so felipe had one good year, where is he in VORP this year?
i’m not saying he was a huge burden, i just think he’s getting way too much hype for one all-star year, and that i don’t really mind him not being on the reds. Kearns is tough to swallow, but until last year i hated felipe lopez with all my strength for how bad he was for the reds.
Keep in mind the rising cost of good relief pitching. That cost was measured in $$$ in the offseason and is being measured in talent now.
We should probably just get over Lopez. The worst defensive SS in the league, and 6th best SS OPS = below average player. This year, at least.
Kearns being traded is tough to take. I do think Deno can do an okay job of replacing him, though. The relievers we got for him are nothing to sneeze at. Bray was a first round pick (13th overall) and Majewski has had very solid numbers for two years now, and has not reached his full potential.
This could be a win now, win later too, move.
But it sure hurts.
right on blue.
a while back i developed a system based on ZR and FPC for measuring defense in terms of OPS given back. It’s nothing amazing, just looking at how many chances a position gets, and seeing how many “hits” a player gave the other team and translating that into OPS.
This year felo is giving back .264 points of OPS compared to the average fielding SS and clayton is giving back .105 points. that gives them adjusted OPSs of .484 and .558 respectively. that’s why i said clayton could replace felo, because he’s got him by 70 pts.
sure there’s a lot of room for error in those types of stats, but that is a big gap, and it’s pretty telling even if it is just an approximation.
If you could perfect that system… oh man… that would be awesome.
It wouldn’t have come to this if O’Brien hadn’t have thought that the Reds could have a competetive team with the likes of White, Weathers and Hammond in the bullpen and no established closer to be had.
Don’t bury Krivsky on this yet. Two things:
1) All told, Felipe has been a liability for us this year (.229 for the last month with little punch and few runs).
2) I’ve seen Majewsiki pitch a bunch of times live and on TV. He can pitch! His ball pops. He’s given up only 8 HR’s in 162 career innings. That’s outstanding. The walks don’t hurt as much then. With a changeup, he could be a closer in a couple of years.
That would even the trade out a bit.
Firstly, I’d like to say that this is one of the more intelligent baseball sites on the web, and it heartens me that so many here are disheartened, as well, by this deal.
I should probably try to keep some perspective on this, given the war and pestilence raging around the world, but as someone who has followed this team for over 30 years, this really makes me sad. I was shocked at first, but now I feel defeated.
You spend you’re whole life following a team through good times and bad – in the last decade, mostly bad – supporting them despite the poor decisions from above and then the latest boy wonder, barely out of his Reds diapers, goes and kicks you in the balls with a steel-toed clown’s shoe.
I cannot support the Reds any longer, because by extension I am supporting all the fools whose groupthink has kept them from winning. I really think I might be done. At least for this season. I just can’t watch it anymore.
This was so idiotic. What is the approval process in the front office prior to pulling the trigger on a deal like this? How many heads came together and thought this was a sound idea? Maybe this was just the baseball version of someone accidentally hitting reply to all? Does MLB have any remit to step in and at least ask the Reds, Are you _sure_ these are the players you want?
Seriously, what was he thinking? This is like trading your really awesome dog to the neighbors for two of their cats.
I’ll check back in at the end of the season and see how the Reds finished. If Royce Clayton and the Sunshine Band have performed exactly as I think they will, then Castellini must waste no time in canning Krivsky.
“I’m understanding what Al’s saying, Reds pitchers would have a .132 lower AVG against, if an average (not good) SS was playing instead of Lopez. That means batters would hit .115 off Arroyo?”
I’m generally not good with these things, but it would seem to me that the .132 average would just be for balls hit to SS.
If the Reds are doing this in the name of making the playoffs this year, I ask “At what cost?” Why sacrifice your future to make the playoffs this year?
Last year, my Padres traded for Joe Randa at the break to solidify their chances of making the postseason. Well, they made it, and Joe Randa didn’t help at all. Meanwhile, we weakened our already weak minor league depth, and got absolutely smoked in the playoffs.
In case you didn’t notice, the Reds are not going to be the NL Champs this year. They simply don’t have the pitching to hold up with the Mets or Cardinals in the long run, and I generally think the Astros, Dodgers, Brewers, Rockies, and my Padres are better teams. Arroyo is a nice pitcher, and Harang and Lidle have flashes of potential, but it isn’t enough to be competitive in the playoffs.
It is completely insane to trade young, cheap building blocks in Kearns and Lopez for middle relievers. A year or two ago, you could have had Gary Majewski for a bag of balls. Instead of overpaying for someone else’s middle reliever, either via trade or via free agency a la the overpaid Scott Eyre’s and Latroy Hawkins’s of the world, why not scour the minors for underutilized one or two pitch guys?
somebody pinch me. this is all a bad dream.
I tried to defend it, My thoughts. Cliff Notes version, Kearns is at peak value and he’s bound to get hurt again soon; Felipe is an idiot, and it’s not like the Reds got a couple of 35 year old Larry Andersons in the deal.
Lopez and Kearns are average major leaguers getting ready to get a payday for their mediocrity. They were the two most likely to go and the bullpen is horrid.
As for Law’s analysis, can anything else he said overcome an obvious misinformed assessment that Majewski is nothing more than 11th or 12th man on this staff?
What is most puzzling is why Bowden is being patted on the back for bringing the mediocrity that sometimes turns to worse and rarely rises above that (sort of like an appearance of Haley’s comet) to Washington that he left behind here. I say the more of his boys we can ship off, the better off our organization will be. I guess we can keep his blind nut find in Dunn.
I left out the word “squirrel” in the last sentence of my last post.
yeah there will be more to come
Tim Kurkjian summed up my feelings on this trade pretty well on Baseball Tonight. He said on paper this trade looks to favor the Nats. However, the Reds needed to improve their bullpen and their defense if they want to stay in the playoff picture. Majewski and Bray are improvements over what they have now and Clayton is better defensively than Lopez. In order to get that kind of help at this point in the season you’re going to need to give up everyday players. Therefore, what looks like a steal for the Nats is a more even trade because it address areas the Reds absolutely had to do something about.
I had a feeling they were going to trade Kearns, but I admit that I about lost my dinner at first sight of the trade. Bottom line though, I think it’s a gamble and for some reason I like it. I’m tired of losing because of pitching. It’s been the starters forever and now it’s the pen. I love Kearns, but if I step away from being a Reds fan, I’d have to say that Kearns has never really been great. Sometimes good, and he has potential, everyone in baseball says that, but he’s never been great like we had expected. Lopez was outstanding last season, but I believe this season’s performance, while sub-par, is probably a closer representation of what he’ll average out to be throughout his career. That’s just my gut feeling. Wagner, I hope the best for the guy, but it hasn’t looked good. It hasn’t looked good at all for that dude of late.
I like the fact that we’ve got some middle relievers who appear to have the capability of striking some guys out. That’s something that this team hasn’t had for a long time. Royce Clayton I could do without, but if he’s a huge liability, then it will end up being Freel and Phillips in the middle (Long term the jury is definitely out on these guys, though I love Freel’s style). We’ll see on the pitching prospect. We need something long term, so the more chances we get with potential starters, the better off this team will be in the future. We have one pitching prospect and then the rest of the starters aren’t even on the radar.
We’ll see though. For the last few years this team did absolutely nothing, so doing something to try to increase the Reds chances to win this year is ok by me. I’m still sad to see Kearns go, but I’m excited to see what Denorfia will do.
If you look at the stats so far this year, Majewski and Bray will already be our two top bullpen pitchers.
Says something about our bullpen.
Don’t feel bad  we Washington Nationals’ fans are just as stunned as you are. Bray might be a good one in time (he was a #1 pick a couple of years ago), but Harris is at best a 4th infielder type. Clayton was doing a good job this year offensively, but he has limited range with the glove. Majewski is a sold middle reliever, but middle relievers just aren’t that valuable. Unless I am missing something, I think Bowden (usually the flecee) did the fleecing today.
And I am sorry  I know how what it feels like  trust me.
Comment by Farid Rushdi  7/13/2006 @ 5:51 pm
Farid, I don’t think the “shock” in Washington is the same “shock” in Cincinnati. Both parties are pretty much in agreement on who did the fleecing here.
Even if they would be our top pitchers, we still overpaid for them.
Before anyone gets too excited about these relievers based on their stats this year, remember that they pitched in a VERY favorable ballpark.
Bray’s numbers are much better at home and he’s pitched there twice as much, but I like that he has a 1.64 g/f ratio. Majewski’s home/away numbers are very similar. The jury will be out on these guys for a while though…
Chris,
First, Kearns has never even sniffed the smell of popcorn at an All-Star game. He has barely been an average major leaguer thus far in his career, although I did think he could be packaged for a middling starter at some point.
Lopez made the All-Star game over the likes of Adam Everett and, well, nobody. He had a nice 2005, but was not showing any type of steady upward rise toward stardom. His defense is not even average, offensively he is better than most NL shortstops, but that faint praise indeed.
I see nothing silly about my description.
I’m not a longtime reader so I don’t know if “David” is a regular, delusional poster and should therefore be ignored. But his post contained so many fallacious statements, it’s laughable. He said Kearns and Lopez are FAs and he is sadly mistaken. They will be under control with Washington through 2008.
Majewski’s 1.75 G/F is hardly close to the league lead – in fact, it’s barely above the league average which usually hovers between 1.3 and 1.4. His career G/F? 1.41.
Harris is only a couple months younger than Felipe. Prospects aren’t 26.
Bray has never hit 99 in his life. Ever. He sits between 90-92. He was a reliever in college, in the pros and will never be a starter.
Daryl Thompson is hardly a prospect at all. Not sure in what world “David” is living, but Thompson was hurt most of the year and is currently sporting a 6.75 ERA in a whopping 6.2 in SHORT SEASON A-BALL. What on God’s green earth could prompt you to say that he’s ready for AA? His strikeout rates are mediocre, his stuff is mediocre and he’s a small righty. Please.
If you think that no team wanted Austin Kearns and Felipe Lopez, you’re sadly mistaken. What one of these guys could have fetched in the offseason (Jake Westbrook for Kearns, anyone?) is far superior to what they both returned in this deal. How could you possibly think there was no market for Kearns and yet organizational filler like Steve Kelly, Josh Hall and William Bergolla could fetch anything?
And “Al” if you think the Giants would give up Schmidt for that package of crap, keep dreaming. It would probably take one of Bailey or Bruce, or possibly 2 of Votto/Cueto/Wood. There are no other chips in the farm system to get a stud like Schmidt, even if it’s just a rental.
This was a terrible deal – you all can keep wishcasting and rationalizing it, but it doesn’t change the fact that the team is worse off for this year and the future.
And finally, Kearns is ranked by almost everyone as the best or 2nd best fielding RF in the league this year. If you add that to his solid work at the plate – he’s been the most valuable hitter on the Reds this year according to Baseball Prospectus (check WARP stats on the DT cards). He ranks 4th in WARP amongst all right fielders, behind Jermaine Dye, Ichiro and Brad Hawpe and tied with Bobby Abreu. Ahead of Vladimir Guerrero, Magglio Ordonez, Trot Nixon and JD Drew. Yup, he’s real mediocre.
So to say he’s a mediocre player as “Cary” has, especially considering his age and his price, betrays a lack of research and understanding.
Comment #89 by Lurker is probably the best perspctive I’ve seen on the deal. Something like today’s move has the power to strike down people’s love for the game. If years of putting something big together ends in this . . . it redefines the meaning of the word futility. I thought we hit ck bottom with the Boone years, but at least then we had a future in sight. This blows my mind.
I think all the handwringing has the potential to strike down people’s love for the game.
Can you all please hold back on the hyperbole? Can we wait and see how these relievers do? Can we just take a breath for a second and think in very plain terms?
With Lopez and Kearns the Reds were not going to win. End of debate. You want to keep those two? Fine, but we don’t win the divison, we don’t win the wildcard and next year we still won’t have pitching. The Reds had to make a move and get pitching. This move did just that. Can the Reds win now? I don’t know, but like I said we were NOT going to win before this trade. We may still not win but at least this is a chance to win. It’s a seller’s-market and the Reds had to give up a lot to get something in return. If we do nothing (or wait for a “better deal” which may never come) we will continue blowing leads, losing games and finish behind the rest of the pack.
How about having a little faith and optimism? If this trade is the last piece of the puzzle to get the Reds into the playoffs will any of you really care who we gave up?
I’m with you…to an extent. But I’m still pretty baffled right now. On paper, I can’t see it…but I’m not a major league scout, and I sure like David Ross and Brandon Phillips!!!
I’ll wait and see what happens, and I’m certainly not going to give up because I’m confused!! Whoever says there through with the Reds for this….good riddance!!!!! Real fans stick it out FOREVER. And don’t come back if these relievers work out and we’re in the playoffs!! (By the way, just a reality check for everyone…we were not supposed to even be in this position, everyone picked us last!!) Let’s ride this out, it may be a fun ride…or it may not, but I say REDS ALL THE WAY!!!
“Krivsky panicked, and took the first thing he could get. This team was in PERFECT position to contend next year. They free up Wilson’s money and could spend that on a few free agent relievers. They have a solid rotation, and HAD an excellent offense. Now, they have Castro AND Clayton. Dropping Womack now seems more related to the fact that he was an O’Brien signing than his terriblosity.”
How do you know he took the first thing he could get? That’s a pretty silly thing to say, and you probably know that.
Also, have you seen who is on the free agent market for relievers this offseason? Its awful. Very few guys who could make a difference and the ones who can will cost you draft picks. That would not have been a smart thing to do.
I don’t like Clayton either. This trade would look better if he had stayed in Washington.
well the good news guys, is that you can probably have tony womak back pretty cheap. He’s in AAA Iowa right now, although rumor is he’s been tearing it up as late. He might only cost you Freel and Harrang.
Observer said:
And finally, Kearns is ranked by almost everyone as the best or 2nd best fielding RF in the league this year. If you add that to his solid work at the plate – he’s been the most valuable hitter on the Reds this year according to Baseball Prospectus (check WARP stats on the DT cards). He ranks 4th in WARP amongst all right fielders, behind Jermaine Dye, Ichiro and Brad Hawpe and tied with Bobby Abreu. Ahead of Vladimir Guerrero, Magglio Ordonez, Trot Nixon and JD Drew. Yup, he’s real mediocre.
So to say he’s a mediocre player as “Cary†has, especially considering his age and his price, betrays a lack of research and understanding.
It would seem that one making such brash statements would rely more on Kearns’ career numbers and injury history than half a season to start comparing his value to Dye, Abreu, Vlad and other names you dropped. The question is, I think “average” and “mediocre” may be too flattering when considering his major league career to date. Oh, that’s right, he’s got all that “potential.”
Simple Jim, by jumping to conclusions and overvaluing the SS we traded.
Everyone seems to be taking extreme positions here. Lets get real. As Reds fans, we have not had a season to be excited about in a long time. Trading Kearns and Lopez did hurt, but as many people are saying, we need pitching, pitching, pitching. Plus, Wayne probably is not done and certainly will not be done in the offseason which I need to remind everyone, has started a hell of a lot sooner in the past 5 years than fans want (the Reds are usually out of it by the end of july if not sooner the past many years). At least the Reds still have a chance to make the playoofs now. Couple that with an aggressive GM, an ownership that is willing to open their poketbook more, and I think most Reds fans should agree this was a good move for the organization. Maybe not the best move, but a move which will help keep the team more competitive and make it more exciting for us to keep watching and that is the most important part of this whole thing. GO REDS
$6.50 a beer $4.00 a hotdog, $4.00 for a soda and this trade. Just another reason NOT to go to a Reds game. Props to Jimmy B. You got us!