We recently discussed Homer Bailey’s recent promotion to AA Chattanooga, where he had a great first start.  His promotion has raised some concerns over whether the 20 year old prospect is being rushed down his path to the major leagues.  Jerry Narron, although it appears half jokingly, has indicated he’d like to see him in Cincinnati now.  Who could blame him after hearing that Bailey’s final, and 96th, pitch in his AA debut was clocked at 98 MPH.  It is also encouraging to note the great progress Bailey has made with his command this season.  The following numbers bear out his improved ability to throw strikes this season at A+ Sarasota, over what he did last season in A Dayton.

Year Age Lvl W L  ERA  G GS    IP  H  R ER HR BB  SO   H9  BB9    K9 WHIP
2005  19   A 8 4 4.43 28 21 103.2 89 64 51  5 62 125 7.73 5.38 10.85 1.46
2006  20  A+ 3 5 3.31 13 13  70.2 49 35 26  6 22  79 6.24 2.80 10.06 1.00

It’s a great sign that he is giving up less hits, nearly halved his BB/9, and is still striking out over ten batters per nine innings.  He’s already made a big stride this season with his command.  His next big hurdle is being consistant from outing to outing.

So given his hot start in AA, when can we expect to see Homer Bailey in a Reds uniform?  I would have to venture that he will recieve a cup of coffee promotion this September.  But there should be no way that he opens the season with the Reds next season.  I believe the earliest he could be with the Reds for good would be about this time next year.  That would only happen if continues to pitch very well at AA for the remainder of this season, and can continue his success for the first half of next season at AAA.  This of course is the ideal situation, and assumes he doesn’t hit any roadblocks.  A conservative estimate would be for him to open up the 2008 season with the Reds.  Based on his performance this season, I look for the Reds to continue to challenge the young prospect and for him to become a big leaguer next season.



3 Responses

  1. greg

    some think that success in AA means more than success in AAA, as AA is where most organization’s top prospects reside, and the guys that reside in AAA are the Dane Sardinhas of the world that teams don’t know what to do with…

  2. Tyler

    Homer Bailey is a stud. I love this kid. His control this year really isn’t a surprise, BA said his control was fine last year, it was a matter of him being forced to throw his secondary pitches constantly to help develop them. Not so much lack of control.

    I agree with Tom, assuming all goes well in AA, he post an ERA around 3 + or – a little, he’ll get a cup of coffee in Sept in the pen. Start the year in AAA next year and he’ll determine how fast he arrives in Cincy from there.

  3. al

    i think that homer will probably see a few innings out of the pen, alla jon papelbon last year with the red sox. both because we hopefully won’t need a starter, and to save his arm since he’ll probably set a new high for IP this year in the minors.

    Not to diversify the thread too much, but what about the chance we’ll see phil dumatrait this year? i participated in the mob.com chat with dunn during ST when i asked him who the best looking young pitcher was he said phil, and i’ve been excited about him ever since.