Thought you’d like to know.
Also, if the Reds play at a .500 clip the rest of the season, they’ll finish 85-77. Not bad.
Thought you’d like to know.
Also, if the Reds play at a .500 clip the rest of the season, they’ll finish 85-77. Not bad.
Could this be a repeat of 1999? So far, looking good!
I don’t the reds have been that lucky at all this year. Phillips blew up for a week, true, but Dunn went 1-20 during that same period, so it kind of evens out. The performances of the rest of this team are on line with basic expectations, except EDE who had too small a sample to accurately project onto this season.
This is a average to slightly above team that is finally being managed and coached to it’s strengths. I have been closely watching for lucky, and I just haven’t seen it.
For example, yesterdays game, Ortiz and Anderson made errors and the Reds were lucky to get those extra runs, but they didn’t need any of them as Arroyo’s performance was anything but lucky.
We’ll see what happens this weekend, a nd we may end up a lot closer to .500 after the five home games, but unlike the Astros, who have basically riden Biggio and Ensberg on way better than expected (i.e. lucky) starts. The Reds have simply shown so far that they can beat the teams they are supposed to beat.
When the team is playing this well, you almost with today wasn’t an off day.
BTW; so far so good with Krivsky.
while we’re on the topic of projections, i came across a formula that has been as accurate as james’ pythagorean, which is based on team obp and slg.
Pct = .4996 + 1.55*OBPDIFF + 1.03*SLGDIFF
the reds have a .361 obp compared to opposition’s .341, and a .477 slg compared to a .492.
so the differences are .020 and -.015 for a projected winning percentage of .515 or 83 to 84 wins.
this echos what was posted above and highlights the extra bases that the reds are giving up as the reason.
BP thinks that the Astros have outperformed this year due to their weak schedule. If you go to BP’s adjusted standings (not sure if it requires a subscription), it shows the Reds and Astros as essentially tied for most wins above expected based on run differential, strength of schedule, and other factors.