Back in early January, I took some player projection data from a fantasy baseball site and untilizing the Pythagorean theorem computation determined what the Reds record for the season might be if the players all lived up to their projections. Those results, which can be seen here, predicted that the Reds would finish the 2006 season with a winning percentage of .549, or a 89 W and 73 L record.

I just recently located the 2006 projections for the Reds players on the USA Today fantasy site. These numbers used to be my favorite, since they had both hitter and pitcher data, a great search feature allowing you to pull the set of numbers you wanted, and best of all, are free. Well, this year the search feature is no longer available and the stats are limited to straight fantasy numbers, which much to my dismay, doesn’t include OBP or SLG for hitters, or even enough information for me to compute them. If you wish to see the numbers for the Reds, or for other teams, they are buried here, click the players name on the depth chart and you will get his 2006 projection numbers. The following are the site’s 2006 projections for the Reds players.

USA Today
2006 Projections

Player G AB H HR RBI R SB AVG
Freel 126 452 121 5 36 76 34 0.268
Lopez 151 593 163 21 81 94 13 0.275
Dunn 162 568 146 47 108 112 6 0.261
Kearns 146 510 141 24 88 85 5 0.280
Griffey 108 418 113 28 84 71 1 0.270
Pena 162 538 142 37 88 74 5 0.264
Encarnacion 162 519 132 18 74 66 9 0.254
LaRue 113 374 94 14 55 42 1 0.251
Pitchers 162 297 34 0 9 11 1 0.114
Valentin 70 205 53 7 29 24 0 0.259
Hatteberg 61 203 55 4 27 27 0 0.261
Aurilia 101 381 103 11 53 50 1 0.270
Womack 102 305 82 2 20 43 17 0.262
McCracken 93 135 38 1 11 20 4 0.252
Totals 162 5498 1417 219 763 795 97 0.258

Player G AB H HR RBI R SB AVG
Menechino 66 129 34 3 12 17 1 0.240
Bergolla 29 66 16 0 3 7 3 0.242
Olmedo 75 107 28 1 9 13 3 0.262
Machado 62 124 28 2 10 18 5 0.226
Cruz 115 133 32 4 21 13 0 0.241
Rhodes 60 114 29 5 15 13 0 0.246
Denorfia 135 285 78 8 37 40 6 0.274
Perez 73 155 45 3 19 18 2 0.258

Player G W L SV IP W+H R ER K ERA WHIP
Harang 31 14 12 0 210 284 106 97 159 4.16 1.35
Milton 36 12 15 0 198 261 106 98 150 4.45 1.32
Claussen 33 13 12 0 193 264 97 89 136 4.15 1.37
Williams 31 10 13 0 173 246 95 87 107 4.53 1.42
Wilson 22 6 12 0 116 168 66 61 69 4.73 1.45
Hudson 15 4 7 0 70 99 36 33 51 4.24 1.41
Weathers 71 5 3 13 76 103 36 33 58 3.91 1.36
Coffey 65 4 1 11 67 90 32 29 48 3.90 1.34
Mercker 70 2 0 3 56 73 23 21 43 3.38 1.30
Wagner 67 5 3 7 73 89 32 29 69 3.58 1.22
Belisle 53 5 7 0 77 105 38 35 53 4.09 1.37
Hammond 51 3 0 1 55 70 26 24 32 3.93 1.28
White 62 3 6 0 68 99 38 35 39 4.63 1.45
Totals 162 86 91 35 1432 1951 729 671 1014 4.22 1.36

Player G W L SV IP W+H R ER K ERA WHIP
Journell 38 1 7 0 33 50 20 18 34 4.91 1.53
Simpson 79 2 7 0 53 76 29 27 57 4.58 1.44
Gosling 26 3 6 0 65 99 37 34 37 4.71 1.53
Shackelford 81 4 0 1 65 88 33 30 39 4.15 1.35
Burns 35 1 0 0 41 58 24 22 27 4.83 1.41
Standridge 42 2 2 0 42 62 24 22 24 4.71 1.48

Unable to compute RC from these number, I had to do a quick and dirty computation from their runs scored numbers for the hitters, and I was able to compute R for all pitchers from IP and ERA data. Given that, the Pythagorean theorum computation on the runs scored and runs allowed numbers produced a projection for a winning percentage of .543, or a 88W and 74 L season. Which once again, would put the Reds right in the thick of the wild card race in the NL.

Well, we seem to have a pattern developing here. Both sets of projections pretty much say that the offense will fall off ever so slightly and that the pitching can’t possibly be that bad again. Can it? Being the optimist that I am, I tend to think along these lines also, but maybe not to the same degree. I think these numbers for our pitchers are a bit too optimistic, even for me. But I do believe, as hope is springing eternal, that these numbers give us an idea of what the season might bring if all breaks just right for our Reds, aka 1999. I can’t wait for the games to begin.

Later,
Tom

8 Responses

  1. Cary

    I can’t imagine this staff performing at that level. Only Harang, Claussen, Belisle (barely), Weathers and Mercker threw significant innings with WHIPs under 1.50. This analysis has them all showing as average to above average pitchers. That is what it would take, but I’m not sure its realistic.

  2. al

    i’ve done some projections like this myself, and despite my better judgement, i’ve come up with similar results.

    i think the projections in USA today for milton, hudson, wagner and belisle are too optimistic, and there are minor changes that i would make here and there. but…

    i do think that the pitching staff has been improved a little, and last year’s staff put up a 4.61 ERA in the second half. The question is going to be consistency over the year, but it really seems like a 4.5 staff ERA isn’t out of reach.

    that’s 730 runs allowed, and with our offense (say 750-850 runs scored) that’s should get us at least a winning record and at best a shot at the post season.

  3. Matt

    Considering all of the home runs the lineup is expected to hit, it’s an indictment of low BA’s/OBP’s that everyone’s R and RBI totals are low. If Wily Mo Pena hits 37 home runs and drives in less than 90 runners, someone needs to re-evaluate the need to have power hitters at all positions. It looks like we’re in for a long season of watching 6-5 games where the Reds hit 6 solo home runs.

  4. Philip

    That “prognostication” is total crap.
    Anyone who knows baseball knows that any kind of “projections” are just stupid and almost 100% of the time.

  5. Philip

    as I was saying…almost 100% of the time wrong. Hey guess what, after opening day there will be about 50 guys on pace to hit well over 160 home runs.

  6. eric

    lol

    yep matt that was the best prediciton I’ve seen all year. The projections I’ve seen has the reds around .500 83-79 I believe..good to see other pub’s in agreement

    I think the biggest diffeence in this team will be the bullpen..that bullpen last year was SO bad…there is no way it could get any worse, but I expect it to be much better. Adding the veteran arms(the only guys who performed up to expectations last year) will be the diference. Not having to rely on 29 year old career minor leaguers to get MLB hitters will be a plus…but don’t say that too loudly, the “moneyball” crowd will go biserk and start throwing out partial season numbers of shackelford, simpson and hancock, who shold ALL be in AAA as insurance. just my two cents.

  7. Matt

    My bullpen concern is that the Reds so badly want either Coffey or Wagner to turn into the next star closer that they will push them into it the moment that Weathers falters and possibly before either are ready. This whole Ryan Wagner experiment has made me nervous ever since they decided that minor league seasoning was beneath him a month after being drafted.

  8. Matt

    No, I don’t want all singles. Some doubles, walks, and stolen bases would be nice. I just look at is as if Pena has 85 RBIs, it’s not that Dunn, Kearns, or Junior have cleared the bases before he took his swing, it’s that they’ve probably all hit solo home runs as well. I don’t mind seeing Sean Casey’s extremely soft .300 average go, but who exactly are Dunn and company supposed to drive in? Kearns is the only guy projected to bat over .275 (and that might be a fair assessment, though we’d love for EE or someone to surprise us). While OBP isn’t projected here, the odds of a bunch of .265 hitters having .365 OBPs are pretty low. The only thing our power hitters are going to be clearing off the bases is the dust accumulating on them between solo shots.