On the Fox Sports web site, Dayn Perry has began his annual top 100 prospects list. He’s started posting his list with Prospects #91-#100. Homer Bailey is listed as #91.
91. Homer Bailey, RHP, Reds, Age 21
Acquired: 1st round, 2004, La Grange HS (La Grange, TX)
Another in a long lineage of raw, fire-balling Texas right-handers, Bailey sports a mid-90s fastball and a hammer curve that wows scouts. The problem right now (as it is with most young hard throwers) is that his off-speed stuff leaves much to be desired. He’s going to need that third pitch if he’s to succeed as a starter at the highest level. The Reds are handling him carefully in terms of workload, which is a point in his favor, but he struggled badly with his control last season in the Midwest League. If Bailey stays healthy, harnesses his stuff and cultivates a deeper repertoire, he’ll be a special pitcher. But those are a lot of “ifs.”
It will be interesting to see if any other Reds prospects make this list. I guessing that Denorfia may be the only other prospect to stand a chance. I don’t think Dayn Perry gives as much weight to potential as BBA does, so I’m doubtful that we will see Jay Bruce or Travis Wood here.
Also, there is an article on Baseball Prospectus (Subscription Required to see full article.) on breakout prospects for 2006, and Homer Bailey is the first prospect discussed there. I think you can see the beginning of their discussion on him without the subscription.