As the Reds enter the off season I wonder where they stand on the issue of retaining a new centerfielder.
Now is the time to ponder it, and I think it’s an important issue that needs to be addressed.
While Griffey is an icon and was once a fleet fly-catching marvel he is no longer that player and in 4 weeks he’s going to be 36 years old, Yep, that’s not a stutter…the “Kid” is turning 36 on November 11th, old enough now to run for President of the United States.
But is he too old to play centerfield for the Reds?
Or any other MLB team for that matter?
In the long history of the franchise the Reds can’t claim a plethora of aging outfielders who caught alot of balls. They have had exactly eight outfielders over the age of 35 that had over 150 outfield putouts in a season, only one center fielder who had over 300 putouts. The list is a who’s who of discarded stars who made most of their name elsewhere, all of them played on losing teams, except a wartime year with Gee Walker in CF and the large framed corner guys, Bichette and Parker on some less than stellar second place teams.
PUTOUTS YEAR PO G AGE 1 Kiki Cuyler 1936 322 140 37 5th 74 80 .481 18 2 Gee Walker 1944 293 117 36 3rd 89 65 .578 16 3 Dave Parker 1987 278 142 36 2nd 84 78 .519 6 4 Dante Bichette 2000 236 121 36 2nd 85 77 .525 10 5 Charley Jones 1886 217 127 36 5th 65 73 .471 27 6 Tommy Leach 1915 200 96 37 7th 71 83 .461 20 7 Edd Roush 1931 197 88 38 8th 58 96 .377 43 8 Kiki Cuyler 1937 174 106 38 8th 56 98 .364 40
Prior to the run of injuries Griffey was without a doubt a world class fielder his run from 1996-2000 was something to behold, lots of putouts
YEAR TEAM AGE G PO A E DP PCT RANGE 1996 Mariners 26 137 375 10 4 1 .990 2.81 1997 Mariners 27 153 388 9 6 3 .985 2.59 1998 Mariners 28 158 408 11 5 2 .988 2.65 1999 Mariners 29 158 386 10 9 2 .978 2.51 2000 Reds 30 141 374 10 5 3 .987 2.72
Griffey’s 2000 putout numbers as a Red were good for 19th all time for the franchise and was the highest total since Eric Davis had 380 in 1987.
It also was the last year the Reds had a winning season, it also was the last time the Reds had an ERA below league average.
Just for kicks here are the best putouts by a CF in the history of the game.
PUTOUTS YEAR PO G PO AGE 1 Taylor Douthit 1928 547 154 547 27 2 Richie Ashburn 1951 538 154 538 24 3 Richie Ashburn 1949 514 154 514 22 4 Chet Lemon 1977 512 149 512 22 5 Dwayne Murphy 1980 507 158 507 25 T6 Richie Ashburn 1956 503 154 503 29 T6 Dom DiMaggio 1948 503 155 503 31 8 Richie Ashburn 1957 502 156 502 30 9 Richie Ashburn 1953 496 156 496 26 10 Richie Ashburn 1958 495 152 495 31 11 Andruw Jones 1999 493 162 493 22 12 Jim Busby 1954 491 155 491 27 13 Omar Moreno 1979 490 162 490 26 T14 Baby Doll Jacobson 1924 488 152 488 33 T14 Al Bumbry 1980 488 160 488 33 T14 Bobby Thomson 1949 488 156 488 25 17 Mike Cameron 2003 485 147 485 30 18 Lloyd Waner 1931 484 153 484 25 19 Richie Ashburn 1954 483 153 483 27 T20 Willie Wilson 1980 482 159 482 24 T20 Jim Busby 1953 482 150 482 26 22 Omar Moreno 1980 479 162 479 27 23 Tom Oliver 1930 477 154 477 27 24 Dwayne Murphy 1984 474 153 474 29 25 Lloyd Moseby 1984 473 156 473 24
Note that Richie Ashburn is the Ozzie Smith of Center Fielders and that the vast majority of top flycatchers are on the soft side of the ripe old age of 30.
In 2004 Griffey got to 2.3 balls per game played, if he was to stay on that rate he would have to play 153 games to get
350 putouts. Which leads to the questions, can he play 153 games? Can he keep his legs healthy? And can the Reds win with a centerfielder only getting 350 put outs a season with the flyball pitchers on this staff?
Better yet does anyone know how few teams have had 36 year old CF’s with over 300 putouts in a year?
It’s not a long list, though it does have its luminaries its also one that is fraught with guys on losing teams.
Breaking it up by eras it goes like this:
1876-1920 PUTOUTS YEAR PO PO G AGE 2 Dummy Hoy 1898 348 348 148 36 T3 Tommy Leach 1914 321 321 136 36 T3 Dummy Hoy 1899 321 321 154 37 5 Dode Paskert 1920 306 306 137 38
Every guy above played on a sub .500 team and was out of the game almost a year or 2 after the achievement, of note is that Hoy played on the Louisville Colonels, a team contracted after 1899… his backup was a young Tommy Leach who when the team was contracted was moved over to the Pirates where he made his name with another couple of transfers named Clarke and Wagner.
1921-1945 PUTOUTS YEAR PO PO G AGE 1 Ty Cobb 1924 417 417 155 37 2 Tris Speaker 1926 394 394 149 38 3 Cy Williams 1924 368 368 145 36 4 Ty Cobb 1923 362 362 141 36 5 Doc Cramer 1942 352 352 150 36 6 Doc Cramer 1943 346 346 138 37 7 Sam Rice 1926 342 342 152 36 8 Doc Cramer 1944 337 337 141 38 T9 Max Carey 1927 331 331 141 37 T9 Earl Averill 1938 331 331 131 36 10 Mike Kreevich 1945 328 328 121 37 11 Tris Speaker 1924 323 323 128 36 12 Kiki Cuyler 1936 322 322 140 37 13 Doc Cramer 1945 314 314 140 39 14 Tris Speaker 1925 311 311 109 37 15 Eddie Brown 1928 309 309 129 36
Of note: Cobb and Speaker were both managers of teams and played themselves in CF, both experienced losing seasons doing it as well as winning. Cramer and Kreevich are most likely a result of wartime shortages. Three of the above players comprise 40% of the total players who were trotted out there post 35.
1946-1960 PUTOUTS YEAR PO PO G AGE None
Expansion Era version 1 & 2 1961-1976 PUTOUTS YEAR PO PO G AGE 1 Bill Bruton 1962 394 394 145 36 2 Willie Davis 1976 349 349 128 36 3 Bill Bruton 1963 339 339 138 37 4 Willie Mays 1968 301 301 142 37
Bruton was a small, skinny guy on a 5th and 6th place Braves team, Davis never played full time again and was out of the game in 77 and 78, Mays is in the same vein as Ty and Tris, a one of the kind guy who had no major injuries as he gained on father time.
Expansion Era Version 3 1977-1992 PUTOUTS YEAR PO PO G AGE 1 Robin Yount 1992 371 371 139 36 2 Willie Wilson 1992 355 355 120 36
A HOF player and a prototype 80’s CF in his last year as a starter. Yount retired 2 years later.
Expansion ERA Version 4.0 1993-2005 PUTOUTS YEAR PO PO G AGE 1 Brett Butler 1993 369 369 155 36 2 Steve Finley 2004 359 359 158 39 3 Otis Nixon 1995 357 357 138 36 4 Otis Nixon 1997 351 351 144 38 5 Marquis Grissom 2003 343 343 148 36 6 Otis Nixon 1996 342 342 125 37 7 Marquis Grissom 2004 341 341 142 37 8 Craig Biggio 2003 326 326 150 37 9 Steve Finley 2002 319 319 144 37 10 Kenny Lofton 2003 314 314 136 36 11 Brady Anderson 2000 307 307 132 36 12 Steve Finley 2001 300 300 131 36
This aside for the 21-45 era is the one most rich with the achievements of the post 35 year old CF, but like the aforementioned 21-45 era the numbers are dominated by 3 players who hold 66% of the places above. This however is the list that can boast a player who played on World Series team that won, with Finley hoisting the trophy with the Diamondbacks in 2001.
So out of the 27 centerfielders over the age of 35 who had 300 putouts only two played on teams that went to the world series and only one played on a team that one it all.
Not very good odds if you ask me.
So as the Reds ponder the off season do they take note that for Griffey to obtain 350 putouts next season (using the same rate of balls he saw per game as this season) he’d have to play 153 games. To get 300 putouts he’d have to appear in 131 games.
Most of us would love his bat in the lineup for 153 games, but some of us have to ponder where his glove should be there in centerfield.
After all outs are the responsibilty of the nine not just the pitcher.
Brian–nice writeup.
“So out of the 27 centerfielders over the age of 35 who had 300 putouts only two played on teams that went to the world series and only one played on a team that one it all.”
Comment regarding expectations:
If one came up with any collection of ~30 ballplayers and asked how many of them made it to the world series, and how many won it all, what would be your null expectation? If there are 30 teams, the expectation is that from a random sampling of 30 ballplayers, ~2 would have made it to the world series and ~1 would have won the world series, no? If we accept that as our null expectation, we’d predict that a group of players that helps a team would win more often than this null while a group of players that hurt a team would win less often than the null. Therefore, the conclusion would be that while 35+ year old outfielder that makes at least 300 putouts in a season doesn’t really help you, he also doesn’t hurt you.
Granted, there haven’t always been 30 teams, but to get closer to your n=27, we could go back to the number of teams before the diamondbacks/devil rays (n=28) or before the rockies/marlins (n=26)…and that’s already 12 years ago (though maybe that’s not so long…seems like yesterday!). Maybe a better idea would be to get an average number of teams over the time period from which you sampled the players? My point in all this is that it’s important to have a reference like this when making this sort of comparison.
But I’m all for trading Griffey. I love the guy, but it doesn’t make sense to have a 36+ year old player with high salary on a team you’re trying to rebuild with the farm system. They key, I think, is to get a reasonably competitive team of young (cheap) players and cheap veterans, and then add a key, high-priced veteran or three. Astros are a nice example of that approach. Just hope we can a) find a taker for Griff that he’s amenable to and b) get Uncle Carl to sign off on it.
-JinAZ
Good Points, I’m not a math guy by any means so I often don’t see it from that deep of a math point of view… but in retrospect I’m removing Carey off the list he was flipped to the Dodgers in 1926.
So that leaves Finley as the sole WS apperance out of the 27.
Cool — it’s interesting stuff. I wanted to say that always enjoy reading your posts, as they offer a nice historical perspective that you can’t find elsewhere. -JinAZ
Sure. Now put him back out there for another three years.
i guess we’ll never know what the whitesox offered DanO, but i think the reds last/best opportunity to trade griffey probably went by the boards at the deadline.
that being said, what this analysis doesn’t look at is teams that had cf’s of any age that didn’t get 300 PO (if that is the standard, it seems like an odd stat to me). I would imagine that plenty of teams have been successful with centerfielders who have been injured leading to shortened seasons.
Griffey wasn’t that much slower in the field, he was just hurt this year, and i think the reds have adequate backups that if he goes down again, we’ll deal with it.
Grif has also said that he would be amenable to playing a corner if he is noticably slower in the field, so i don’t think his glove is any reason to think of trading him.
His contract maybe.
The other thing, is who would be better in CF right now? I assume we wouldn’t be getting a young hotshot cf in trade for him, so we’d be plunking in kearns/pena/freel i suppose? I’d rather get as many games from griffey as i can than rely on that trio, as long as we aren’t considering money.
I would imagine that plenty of teams have been successful with centerfielders who have been injured leading to shortened seasons.
Very true Al, but that’s the point in a way, the young, fleet CF will make those 300 Putouts because he’s out there every day and he’s young and fleet.
Can we depend on Junior for that?
BTW the reason it doesn’t look at numbers under 300 is beacause the average MLB CF catches more than 300 balls a year if they play enough,
Look at the top 10 from last year all CF save Ichiro and Crawford to swift guys.
The Hardball Times opined that Griffey was the worst fielding CF in MLB last year. They base this on putouts as compared with balls put into play. In other words, they base their ratings on the player’s range. See http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/2005-gold-gloves/
This doesn’t look at arm strength and accuracy, which is defnitely a plus for Griffey. That aside, this is a disturbing analysis.
News flash – Reds aren’t going to WS, with or without Grif. Moot point. O’Brien probably blew it in not trading him to White Sox when opportunity presented itself. Maybe ‘STROS are still interested? They suffer from anemia.
I used to be skeptical about Lopez’s defense, but I was swayed this season. He made three absolutely outstanding plays vs the Marlins in a game we caught @ GABP, seats a couple rows behind the visitors dugout. If he can replicate 2005 I’ll take it. Gladly.
Felipe, I must admit, stongly outperformed my expectations for him this season. Plus, he is only 25. He is one of the few Reds that I want at the plate in a crucial situation. The ball explodes off his bat. Tremendous pop, and he’s still improving.