This is my first post on the Redleg Nation, I hope you enjoy….

I saw a familiar stat in the Enquirer today. Its a stat that has been repeated over and over and over all year. So much that even I started believing it without ACTUALLY looking at the facts. I had assumed that the poeple that keep spitting out this ridiculous stat actually had some facts behind it. NOPE.

From the Enqy:
1020, Plate appearances since Dunn last hit a sacrifice fly. He hasn’t hit one since.

OK, why does this matter, and how many times in that 1020 ABS has he had a CHANCE to hit a Sacrafice fly? First let’s see the number of chances.

In 2005 he has had 259 plate appearances, and 12!!!!!! with a man on 3rd and <2 outs. In those 12 plate appearances he has 5 walks, and no hits 2 RBIs. Which gives him a .462 OBA. .000 SLG. Certainly that isn’t great, but the sample size is a bit small, don’t you think?

in 2004 in 678 plate appearances, he had a grand total of 43 with a man on 3rd and <2 outs. In those 43 plate appearances he had 9 walks, 3 singls, 4 doubles, 3 homers, 23 RBI. .386/.588/.975 Would you like him to take some off those homers so that he can get a sac fly and only score one run instead of two?

in 2003 in 455 plate appearances he had a whopping 21 plate appearances with a man on 3rd with <2 outs. IN those 21 plate appearances he had 6 walks, 2 singles, 2 homers, 15 RBI (he had two grand slams this year) .400/.667/.1067

So in 1392 plate appearances where he only has one sac fly he only has 76 plate appearances with a man on 3rd with <2 outs. In those 76 Plate appearances, Dunn makes an out 42 times. 45% of the time when Dunn comes up in this situation he extends the inning for his team, INCLUDING, 40 RBI, 5 singles, 4 doubles, 5 homers. Would you rather those homers be sac flies?

When you play for one run, you get one run, when you have Adam Dunn you get more than one run, just look at his Runs Scored and his RBI, DESPITE his .243 bating average.

BTW, this research took about 5 minutes…I found it at the secret site www.yahoo.com

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15 Responses

  1. Brian Erts

    Is there a more uttered nonsense phrase in the Reds community than the Sac fly comments?

    Probably not.

    Pete Rose and Vada Pinson, two bat on the ball contact guys in a hitters park were HORRIBLE at sac flies, it’s a chance roll on a roulette wheel.

    SACRIFICE FLIES YEAR SF PA OUTS
    T1 Vada Pinson 1959 0 706 460
    T1 Ryan Freel 2004 0 592 390
    T1 Frank Robinson 1958 0 623 419
    T1 Adam Dunn 2004 0 681 426
    T1 Eddie Milner 1982 0 452 319
    T1 Pete Rose 1973 0 752 472
    T7 Ron Oester 1984 1 601 443
    T7 Eddie Milner 1983 1 584 407
    T7 Pete Rose 1964 1 558 397
    T7 Leo Cardenas 1963 1 601 459
    T7 Eddie Milner 1986 1 462 330
    T7 Vada Pinson 1960 1 706 490
    T7 Vada Pinson 1967 1 684 482
    T7 Tommy Helms 1969 1 508 386
    T7 Pete Rose 1975 1 764 468
    T7 Don Hoak 1958 1 466 331
    T7 Pete Rose 1966 1 700 478
    T7 Cesar Geronimo 1975 1 557 388
    T7 Johnny Temple 1954 1 576 371
    T7 Cesar Geronimo 1977 1 538 382
    T7 Billy Hatcher 1990 1 545 381
    T7 Paul O’Neill 1991 1 607 412
    T7 Lee May 1968 1 602 427

    Welcome Matt

  2. Eric

    You know, I’ve just been playing more attention to it with all of teh sac fly talk with Dunn, but I’ve personally seen 4 times in the past couple of weeks where Dunn has come up with a runner on 3rd and less than 2 outs.

    Twice he walked, scoring a run in one of those cases. Once he grounded to second, driving in the runner. Once he popped out to short left, not scoring the run.

    I’d say that’s not a bad ratio.

  3. Eric

    One more thing…

    With the induction of Eric Davis into the Hall of Fame on Saturday, I’m noticing a great similarly between how this city is treating that #44 as opposed to this #44.

    With Davis, the city’s whole talk radio population was on him constantly because he was hurt to much and lazy, chasing a great player out of town. With Dunn, it’s because he strikes out too much and doesn’t hit sac flies. I REALLY hope that this city doesn’t drive another potentially great player out of town.

  4. Matt

    I would argue that your premise is wrong. The goal of ANY hitter is to NOT make an out, even in that situation. The notion of playing for one run, is a very bad idea, in about 99% of the cases. Short of the 9th inning or later in a close ball game, I don’t want my best hitter making an out period. Making one out and getting one RBI is NOT as good as not getting an RBI and getting on base.

    Dunn is better at that than just about everyone else.

    I am not a statistician, but I have read several studies on this, the facts just don’t back up the sac fly theory of getting an RBI. looking at OPS is still a better way of judging a hitter than RBI or RS in any situation. Their are certainly more accurate stats than OPS to look at, but RBI aren’t one of them.

  5. Matt

    As sad as it is to admit, Boone was on to something when he had Dunn batting 1st and 2nd.

    His power is wasted, but can you imagine the RBI’s that MR. GIDP would have if Dunn were hitting ahead of him?

  6. Matt

    I understand your point on Dunn, my only question would be at the major league level is an infield pop up or a fly out to shallow outfield, or a ground out to the 3rd baseman any different than a strikeout? I know in Little League its a HUGE difference, just wondering if they extreme OBA and Power in so many other cases don’t make up for his large number of this certain type of out. But your point is taken.

    I was wondering the same thing about Marty. I am not sure if I am just more aware of what he is talking about now, or if he is just becomeing a grumpy old man. Frankly I can’t hardly listen to him, when he gets on his rants. I never thought I would miss joe, but that dead air is much nicer than rants against good baseball players.

  7. Matt

    Win-Loss records for pitchers sure can make GMs do some pretty stupid things. See Jimmy Haynes, Eric Milton, Paul Wilson, etc.

  8. Eric

    Couple things here…

    First, on Marty…he’s grumpy when the Reds are playing badly, happy when they’re playing well. He’ll have his little tirades either way, but he tends to rip everyone with a team that’s 10 games under .500.

    On Dunn, I’ll agree with the peanut gallery here. It seems to me that he’s a #1 or a #2 hitter, not a #4 or #5. Dunn’s not speedy, but he’s not slow either. Wilkerson seems to work well as a leadoff guy in Washington with some good pop…maybe that’s DUnn’s best role.

  9. Blue

    Is he really worth it? Is it really worth keeping Dunn when he could easily be traded to fix the Reds pitching woes while Kearns or maybe even Kelly takes his place in the field?

    Okay, Dunn is good. But he’s not THAT good.

  10. Blue

    Peter Gammons just floated the possibility of Kearns to the Braves for a pitcher and a catcher, who I believe he said was Brayan Pena, a 23 year old switch hitting catcher who hit .417 in Richmond, (mostly singles.) His major league average has been low, but he only has 23 at-bats and hasn’t gotten regular playing time. In addition to his AAA average, he also has 10 BBs and only 6 Ks in 103 at-bats.

    Interesting…

  11. mike

    I wouldn’t mind seeing them bat Dunn 2nd for a while. I also wouldn’t mind Casey batting lead-off. Granted, he doesn’t have the speed for a lead-off hitter, but he does get on base. I would love to see Lopez bat third behind those guys the way he’s hitting and follow it up with Griffey and WMP. This would take Freel out of the top of the order which I’m not crazy about, but I wouldn’t mind seeing that lineup with the way Lopez and Griffey have been hitting of late.

  12. Glenn

    Greg,
    The Reds wouldn’t recognize good pitching if they tripped over it. Trading any of the position players for pitching in the Reds’ case is a crap shoot. You know your losing front line talent but you have no idea what you’re going to get in return.

  13. Blue

    You know, Dan O’Brien wasn’t the only GM pursuing Milton.

    And its not about replacing Dunn’s offense. Its about trading his offense for pitching. We can get at pitchers with ERAs 2.00 runs (conservatively) better than what they have now… okay, for argument’s sake… two pitchers, 2 runs fewer, thirty starts each… 120 runs fewer given up, if the Reds trade for pitching. Is Dunn now having, or has he ever had a 120 RBI season? No. He hasn’t even had a season where he may have reached 120 RBIs if he had had 600 at bats. This season he is on pace for about 97 RBIs.

    So, even if the guy they replaced Dunn with drives in 0 runs, the team still improves.

    Of course, if you consider that the pitchers would average 6 or 7 innings per start, you can knock off about a third of the fewer runs the new starters would give up. So, its closer to 80 runs fewer. But, the new pitchers would still be pitching poorly if they had ERA 2.00 runs below the crop they would replace. So if you knock 2.5 or even 3 runs off the new starters ERA, the team is still improved. All of this with a guy driving in 0 runs taking Dunn’s place.

    This team has depth in the outfield and only two pitchers that are worth the cost of their uniforms. The solutions seems quite obvious.

  14. Joel

    O’Brien wasn’t the only GM pursuing Milton, but he was the only one that offered him $8 million. The Yankees were only offering $6 million and they aren’t on a tight budget. But I won’t bury DanO for the move simply because he never could have predicted an ERA near 8.00 for Milton, but he should have known that he wasn’t an $8 million a year pitcher for a team with limited funds.

    As for your trading Dunn theory, using RBI as the sole statistic to value a player is short sighted. Dunn does much more than drive in runs and in fact had 124 runs created last season. Even if you want to go basic on the stats, he scored 105 runs and drove in 102 last season. If you take out the double counting of his home runs, that totals to 161 runs that you would have to replace. It’s hard to replace that kind of production with a hitter, let alone a pitcher that only throws every fifth day.

  15. Glenn

    I’m thinking Milton’s days in the starting rotation are numbered. I was hoping he’d work out his problems but I’m begining to start think along the lines Marty has; “How can the Reds in good conscience…”