The Enquirer has a big ‘ole article filled with traditional baseball quotes explaining why the Milton signing was a good move. John Erardi makes time to call those that thought the Reds overpaid for Milton “statistical geeks”, while using the fact that he won games with bad secondary numbers to say it’s a good signing.
Also, in another article that’s sure to stick in Chad’s craw…they compare Milton to Tom Browning.
I’d take Tom Browning circa 1985-1993 right now for this rotation, or as a matter of fact, any rotation.
JMHO…Bulldog was a worker & innings eater.
I for one believe that the comps for Browning and Milton are pretty dead on when looked at compared to the league. But Browniong had a screwball and Milton has to harness heat (plus his K rate goes down with runners on) Browning also had a Gazelle in CF with Davis and Juinor god love him is on the decline in the field.
That said that enquirer article is the typical rah-rah, joe lunchbox article.
That doesn’t bother me as much as the slam on statistical work. So I fired off an email to John to let him know my feelings.
Conventional wisdom among the statistical geeks is that the Reds overpaid for Eric Milton.
Pretty soft term to throw out in an attempt to devalue the differing opinion from the onset.
Statistics are a tool, not unlike a microscope. Statistics are a hammer, a speculum, a thermometer. A statistics-based approach to understanding of baseball is one of many paths to knowledge of the game. Calling those who take that path “freaks” or “Nazis” makes as much sense as calling a Ph.D. chemist a wimp because he tests the qualities of his cyanide compound by means of Fourier Transform Infrared Spectroscopy rather than just drinking the thing.
While Miltons comps are pitchers like Browning and Jim Merrit… would you like the Reds to pay then 8 million a year and try and sell that to you as a major upgrade
Good call, Brian.
As for Milton — he dreams of being as good as Browning. TB is the best pitcher in Reds history.
Well, I might be exaggerating a little since TB is one of my favorite players ever.
Just a bit. 😯 🙂
Mario Soto and Jose Rijo should get a nod as the best pitchers from our generation. Jim Maloney and Don Gullett come to mind also, and Gary Nolan had some wicked stuff when he was healthy. I always thought of Tom Browning as the Jack Billingham of the 80’s, and I mean that in a good way.
I’ve been comparing Milton to Browning since before the Reds traded for him, and I’m glad someone feels the same way. Milton will give the Reds innings and wins. The home-run ratio and hitter’s ballpark has spun way out of control.
I get the Milton/Browning comparison looking at it prior to the age of 30 and making it LH only.
This table shows the ERA vs the league average. Not sure how it will look…
LEFT HANDED PITCHERS
AGE <= 30
INNINGS PITCHED < 1500
HOMERUNS vs. the league average displayed only–not a sorting criteria
BASERUNNERS/9 IP < 12
STRIKEOUTS/9 IP <= 7
ERA < 0 vs. the league average
ERA DIFF PLAYER LEAGUE IP HR BR/9 IP SO/9 IP ERA
1 Terry Mulholland -.05 3.76 3.70 1048.2 9 11.30 4.88 -.05
2 Tom Browning -.06 3.73 3.67 1439 -52 11.19 4.84 -.06
3 Johnny Lush -.06 2.68 2.62 1238.2 0 11.95 3.56 -.06
4 Rube Benton -.12 3.04 2.93 1490.2 11 11.84 4.15 -.12
5 Eric Milton -.14 4.76 4.62 1188.1 -42 11.82 6.63 -.14
6 Dennis Rasmussen -.15 4.07 3.92 1044.2 -24 11.78 5.55 -.15
7 Jim Merritt -.15 3.66 3.51 1480 -33 11.01 5.67 -.15
8 Ed Karger -.19 2.79 2.60 1087.1 2 11.21 3.39 -.19
9 Brian Anderson -.23 4.72 4.49 1152.2 -56 11.95 4.29 -.23
10 Irv Young -.39 3.06 2.67 1155.2 -6 11.11 3.55 -.39
Well it didn’t take.