John Fay thinks the Reds will be better, but isn’t sure by how much:

They’re going to be better.

That’s the answer to the oft-asked question this time of year:

How are the Reds going to do?

Again, they’ll be better. Probably not good enough to win the National League Central or make the playoffs.

But better.

A lot of things would have to break their way for them to win the Central, largely because the St. Louis Cardinals were very good last year, good enough to win 105 games, and they appear to be the favorite in the division again.

The wild card is a more realistic possibility. But it took 92 wins to earn a wild-card berth last year.

Well, I agree with all of that, actually. (In fact, it’s a pretty good article, except for the part where Fay is beating the “start the veteran” drum for Rich Aurilia; as you know, I think Felipe Lopez makes the team better.) I think the Reds will be right around .500, and if things break right, they could be better than that. I don’t remember the last time things broke right for the Reds, though — well, actually, I guess it was 1999.

I’d take another year like that, with a better final game, I guess.