Boy, this is just brutal news, coming just as the Reds were showing real signs of playing some good baseball:

The bad news is they lost shortstop Jeff Keppinger to a fractured left kneecap.

Keppinger, who entered the game hitting a team-high .320, was hurt in the second inning after fouling a ball off his leg. An X-ray revealed a fractured left patella.

He is now on the 15-day disabled list. The Reds recalled from Class AAA Louisville infielder Paul Janish.

Reds manager Dusty Baker said the initial scan could have produced worse news, but it was still a “big blow.”

“It’s a really big loss, but you’ve got two choices: You can either feel sorry for yourself or you can figure out a way to get the job done,” Baker said.

Janish can certainly handle shortstop from a defensive perspective, but I just can’t see any way he’ll be able to handle the bat well enough to contribute much at the plate.

I’m not sure it matters. I expect Jerry Hairston to be the everday shortstop, and that could likely be a disaster. Especially since he’ll join fellow “Dusty Guy” Corey Patterson in eating up outs. Of course, while Hairston likely won’t eat up as many outs as Patterson, he will kill the Reds at shortstop defensively (at least Patterson plays a pretty good centerfield).

I’ve been trying to stay optimistic this season, and I’ve succeeded thus far. Gotta admit, though: I’m pretty discouraged today.

Louisville 5 - Scranton W/B 3

Adam Pettyjohn remained perfect on the year, improving to 4-0 with the win.  Adam allowed 3 runs on 4 hits and 3 walks while striking out 2 over 6 innings pitched.  Gary Majewski pitched 2 scoreless innings in relief, allowing a hit and striking out 2.  Majewski has now allowed just 1 earned run in his last 10 relief appearances.

Kevin Barker and Jay Bruce had 2 hits apiece for the Bats last night.  Jay had a double and an rbi, and Kevin doubled as well and scored twice.  Paul Janish went 1-2 with 2 rbis before being lifted for a pinch-hitter when Keppinger fractured his kneecap.

Chattanooga 6 - Carolina 4

Michael Griffin went 3-3 with a double and 2 runs scored to help lead the Lookouts to a 2-run victory.  Sean Henry added 2 hits in 4 at-bats with a double and 2 runs batted in, giving him 22 rbis on the season. 

James Avery picked up his first win of the season by allowing 2 runs (1 earned) on 5 hits and 3 walks in 5 innings pitched.  He struck out 4 and is now 1-2 on the season.  Josh Roenicke picked up his 8th save of the season by pitching a scoreless 9th.

Fort Myers 10 - Sarasota 6

Juan Francisco had a huge night in the Reds loss. Juan went 3-5 with 2 homeruns, 4 rbis, and 2 runs scored.  The 2 long balls gives Juan 7 on the season and he now has 30 runs batted in.  Todd Frazier, Daniel Dorn, and Chris Denove each had 2 hits in the game. 

Rafael Gonzalez was roughed up and picked up the loss.  Gonzalez surrendered 7 runs on 7 hits and 3 walks in 4 innings of work.

Dayton 3 - Lansing 2

Enerio Del Rosario lowered his ERA to 1.13 on the season by going 6 innings, allowing 1 unearned run on 4 hits while striking out 5. Terrell Young picked up his first save of the season by pitching 2 scoreless innings of relief, striking out 1.

Brandon Waring went 2-4 in the game for the Dragons with 2 doubles.  Jason Bour also went 2-4 with 2 doubles.  Bour also drove in a run and scored once.  Angel Cabrera added 2 singles in 4 at-bats in the Dragons win.

April 10, 1970: Don Gullett makes his major league debut with  1 1/3 innings of scoreless relief, although the Reds lose 4-3, ot the Giants in San Francisco.

A standout in football, basketball, and baseball at McKell High School in Kentucky. Gullett was 19 when he made his first appearance. His only previous pro experience  was 11 games for Sioux Falls in the Northern League. Gullett is the last teenager to play for the Reds. The youngest player since 1970 is Rosario Rodriguez, who was 55 days past his 20th birthday when he pitched for the Reds in 1989.

All “Reds trivia” posts come from Greg Rhodes and John Snyder’s fabulous book, “Redleg Journal” (see link for purchasing) and are used with Greg’s permission.

Thanks again to Greg Rhodes for permission to use his material.

Its a BlackBerry-posted, one-handed (just had surgery for carpal tunnel) game thread! I’m in pain, but here is your stupid thread!

Enjoy the game and discuss it here. I’m stuck at a T-Ball doubleheader.

Breaking News:  Jeff Keppinger has left the game after fouling a ball off his knee — BROKEN PATELLA.  Out indefinitely.

This “going without a backup SS” thing should change.

Louisville 7 - Richmond 0 (Game 1)

Matt Maloney pitched 7 shutout innings in game 1 of the doubleheader to improve to 4-2 on the season. Maloney allowed just 2 hits and walked 2 while striking out 7.

Jay Bruce went 4-4 for the Bats with 2 doubles, a homerun, 2 rbis, and 2 runs scored. Bruce is now batting .348/.375/.609 on the season in 138 at-bats. Over the last 10 games, he’s batting .515 with 2 homeruns and 8 rbis.

Louisville 2 - Richmond 1 (Game 2)

Tom Shearn bumped his record to 6-1 by going 6 innings, allowing just 1 run on 3 hits while striking out 4. The start allowed Tom to lower his ERA to 3.95 on the season.

The Bats only managed 4 hits in the game. Andy Phillips went 1-3 with a double, rbi, and run scored to lead Louisville.

Carolina 9 - Chattanooga 7

The Lookouts bullpen ruined a nice start by Daryl Thompson. Thompson went 6 innings, allowing 1 unearned run on 4 hits and 4 walks while striking out 6. Daryl struck out 5. Despite having a 1.28 ERA in 8 start, Thompson’s record is just 2-1 on the season.

Michael Hrynio’s struggles continue this season. Hrynio allowed 4 runs in 0.2 innings to raise his ERA this season to 22.50 in 4 innings of relief. In his last 2 innings of work, Hrynio has allowed 10 earned runs. Pedro Viola, who was as dominating as they come a year ago, also continues to struggle. Viola picked up the loss in yesterday’s game by surrendering 3 runs on 3 hits and 2 walks in 1 inning of work.

Cody Strait, Michael Griffin, Tonys Gutierrez, and Drew Anderson had 2 hits each for the Lookouts.

Sarasota 7 - Fort Myers 2

Michael DeJesus went 3-5 with a triple, 2 rbis, and 2 runs scored to lead the Reds offense to the win. Juan Francisco and Drew Stubbs each added 2 hits in 5 at-bats and drove in a run each. Jose Castro went 2-3 and scored a run.

Alexander Smit picked up the win and improved to 3-3 on the year by going 6 innings, allowing 1 run on 3 hits and 2 walks while striking out 8.

Dayton 2 - Lansing 1

Each team managed just 3 hits each, but it was the Dragons who made the most of what little offense they generated. Angel Cabrera went 1-2 with a double and run scored to help the Dragons win. He did make 2 errors in the game at SS which nearly cost the team as well.

Curtis Partch picked up the win by allowing 1 unearned run in 6 innings. He scattered 2 hits and walked 1 while striking out 7. Phillippe-Alexandre Valiquette, aside from having the longest name ever typed in the DOTF feature, picked up his first save of the season. Valiquette went 3 innings, allowing just 1 hit while striking out 6.

The 1930’s:

Record: 664-866 .434

Best Team: The pennant winning 1939 team set a club record of 97 wins (which was broken a year later, third best in the NL in the decade.

Worse Team: So many good choices, but the ‘34 Reds are the “winners”. The team fnisihed with a 52-99 record, was last in the league in runs scored and runs allowed and went through 3 managers.

Player of the Decade: Ernie Lombardi was acquired by the Reds in ‘32 and remained the starting catcher through ‘41. He was elected to the HOF in 1986.

Pitcher of the Decade: Paul Derringer anchored the Reds rotation for most of the decade. His first five seasons with the Reds may have cost Derringer election to the HOF. He was 73-92 (.442) from ‘33 to ‘37, pitching for a team with a winning percentage of .403. Derringer finished his career with a 223-212 record. Moving 3 losses to wins during this period would have put Derringer at a career record of 238-197, comparable to many Hall of Famers.

All “Reds trivia” posts come from Greg Rhodes and John Snyder’s fabulous book, “Redleg Journal” (see link for purchasing) and are used with Greg’s permission.

Thanks again to Greg Rhodes for permission to use his material.

I think we’ve been pretty fair to Dusty Baker. After a blast of initial skepticism, we’ve been willing, if not eager to give the guy the benefit of the doubt. I’ve been surprised at how few gripes I’ve had, given the team’s lousy record. Hell, we didn’t even say a word about this.

But this Corey Patterson thing…

I kept waiting for Baker to come to his senses, or at least to offer some sort of crazy theory to justify giving 21 leadoff starts (in 39 games) to a guy with a .252 OBP. WHAT IS HE THINKING?
Somebody finally asked (via Fay):

Baker was asked if he’s thought about moving Corey Patterson down in the lineup.

“Yeah, what makes it kind of rough is you don’t want to me [sic] left-handers in a row,” Baker said. “That’s what I’m trying to stay away from. He’s going to get going. Guys usually end where there (career) average is. . . we don’t have a bunch of speed. You need speed, especially in close games.”

Patterson is hitting .196 with a .252 on-base percentage. He has five steals but he’s been caught three times.

That’s a crap answer. I’m sorry, but it’s crap.

Baker expects Patterson to basically match his career .296 OBP over the long season - yet he thinks that’s okay for the leadoff spot?

He also wants Patterson in there because Patterson is fast? Despite the fact that his SB success rate is abysmal?

And somehow Patterson’s lefty-tude makes him the right option for the leadoff spot?

What about Ryan Freel? Or even Norris Hopper? Both solve the alleged righty/lefty problem, fill the “speed in close games” void, and also happen to fill the primary goal of any hitter - not making outs all the freaking time.

Baker is knowingly — admittedly!! — choosing his leadoff hitter based on what are probably about the 7th and 8th most relevant qualifications. That’s like picking a car based on the cup holders. Dusty is being willfully obtuse on this point, and it’s pretty ridiculous. It doesn’t make him a terrible manager, but it is terrible managing.

The Reds will try to knock off the first place Fish in tonight’s opening game of a four-game tilt with the Marlins. Yes, the Marlins are in first place. That is hard to believe. About as hard to believe as Aaron Harang’s 1-5 record this season, despite a 3.09 earned run average. Let’s hope the Reds can get Aaron some run support tonight and pick up a win!

Discuss it here…

Lance McAlister has posted on his blog that a good friend of Redleg Nation, Chris Welsh, lost his mother last week.

All of us at Redleg Nation send their best wishes to the Welsh family.

Some guy has made a really cool map of “The United Countries of Baseball.” I may quibble with a few of the borders, but he’s obviously put a lot of thought into it. Fun stuff.

(Larger version.)

Yesterday was the third time our illustrious manager Dusty Baker has been involved in a batting-out-of-order snafu that resulted in a free out for the other team.

Indianapolis versus Scranton W/B

Postponed

Carolina 4 - Chattanooga 3

Tonys Gutierrez went 2-3 with a walk and an rbi in the losing effort.  The 2 hits by Tonys puts him at .336/.467/.445 on the season in 110 at-bats.  Eric Eymann also had 2 hits but in 4 at-bats for the Lookouts.  Eymann doubled and scored once.

Ramon Ramirez pitched well in the start but received a no-decision.  Ramirez went 6 innings, giving up 3 runs on 8 hits and striking out 7.  Robert Manuel pitched well in relief, giving up 1 hit in 2 innings while striking out 4.

Sarasota Reds

The Reds had the day off.  The Reds are currently 20-16, 3 games behind Fort Myers in the FSL West divisin.

Dayton versus Great Lakes

Postponed

September 22, 1897: The Reds win, 13-2, over the Pirates in the first game of a double header in Pittsburgh. The Reds lost the second gme, called by darkness after 7 innings, 8-4.

Billy Rhines was scheduled to pitch the second game, but went to his home in Ridgway, Pennsylvania to take care of person business, and failed to reutrn. As a result, catcher Heinie Peitz as pressed into service as a pitcher, and hurled the complete game loss.

All “Reds trivia” posts come from Greg Rhodes and John Snyder’s fabulous book, “Redleg Journal” (see link for purchasing) and are used with Greg’s permission.

Thanks again to Greg Rhodes for permission to use his material.

Johnny Cueto is due for a good outing, and this would be great timing; a win today gives the Reds a second straight series win against a predicted playoff team. Unfortunately, noted Reds-killer Oliver Perez pitches for the Mets.

Maybe the offense will continue to slug away, and the Reds will continue their inexorable march toward first place in the National League Central division. Discuss it here….

John Erardi gives us another interesting article in today’s Enquirer:

The “Little Things”…

We keep hearing that the Reds “don’t do the little things well,” but did you know the average for National League teams last year was 47 sacrifice flies (or about two every seven games) and 65 sacrifice bunts (two every five games), and that the Reds were only one below the sac-fly average and plus-8 on the sac-bunt average?

There’s a reason they’re called “the little things.” They don’t affect the outcome of a team’s regular season as much as the big things (getting on base, which directly affects total runs scored).

Our managers managed by “the book”…which means bunting, seemingly, at every opportunity.

TALE OF TWO SEASONS

How about these numbers on Aaron Harang through his first eight starts:

2007 - 5-1, 5.04 ERA (55 runs of support from team)

2008 - 1-5, 3.09 ERA (22 runs of support from team)

Is there anybody out there who still wants to insist that the best gauge for evaluating starting pitchers is their won-loss records?

Yet, there are people that talk as if Harang isn’t pitching well. He’s steady and usually very good, bordering on spectacular and does not get nearly the credit he deserves from the baseball media. His W-L record (at least thus far this year) won’t help this situation either.

JAY, NOT LENNY

The biggest reason 21-year-old Jay Bruce is still in Louisville is that the Reds brass - including the development people - want him to get his on-base average closer to 65-70 points above his batting average to show he has the discipline to hit in the majors. Right now, Bruce’s on-base average (.343) is only 23 points higher than his batting average (.320). This isn’t to say Bruce has to get his OBA into that plus-65-70 range to get called up, but he has to be moving in the right direction.

He’s drawn only seven walks compared to 30 strikeouts. Roughly 5 percent of his plate appearances go for walks.

The NL average walk rate for a non-pitcher this season is 9.7 percent. If Bruce can’t match that rate in Triple-A, he’s going to have a hard time against quality major-league pitchers.

By the way, Brandon Phillips ‘ career OBA is only 44 points above his career BA. That’s tolerable if you’re blasting a lot of long balls, but if you’re not …

This doesn’t explain why Corey Patterson is still on the Reds roster. I can understand the thinking that if Jay’s not being selective enough at Louisville, it’s a stretch to believe that it’ll be better at the next level, but how much longer is Reds management willing to send Patterson out there to soak up outs?

THE BATTING ORDER

Pundits (including us, in this space last week) tend to over-analyze the rationale in explaining why a specific batting order should be utilized. All you need to know is this: Bat your high on-base guys 1 through 3. We strongly recommend Jeff Keppinger, Adam Dunn and Edwin Encarnacion, respectively.

Runs come from hitters getting on base and the hitters behind them (Joey Votto, Phillips, Ken Griffey Jr.) getting them home.

Batting Encarnacion anywhere but 1-4 is a waste of his .360 OBA, which is 102 points higher than his batting average (.258). We think his BA (and, thus, his OBA) will climb with the season.

This tidbit is in keeping with John’s seeming belief (shared by most “stats guys”) that OBA is the key to teams being productive offensively. (More on this later in the article.) I do like what he says about EE.

Along with that thought, I was very vocal about how I felt that Dusty was the wrong manager for this team. My belief mostly centered around his handling of young players but he’s been pretty darn outstanding in his dealings with EE, Votto, Cueto, and Volquez. He’s exhibited none of the tendencies that had me so concerned (other than his seeming “man crush” on Corey Patterson). I respect the job he’s done in dealing with the young players on the Reds roster.

GET ‘EM ON, GET ‘EM IN

Over their careers, almost everybody hits within 10 points of their batting average (either way) with runners in scoring position. With runners in scoring position, Tony Perez - regarded as one of the great clutch hitters in history - hit only five points higher than his overall batting average with RISP (.284, .279).

Did you know the 1976 Reds hold the major-league record for most runners left on base in a season - and yet they scored the second-most runs in franchise history?

Why? They also had a franchise-record .357 on-base average.

I’d love to see more data on this. I have problems with phrases like “almost everybody”. It’s very interesting to read this about Perez (who is often remembered as being an incredible “clutch” hitter). This is more proof of the belief in OBA being all important.

HIT DUNN NO. 2

It is simply untrue that Adam Dunn (below right) is not a good 2-hole hitter.

Though conventional wisdom says a 2-hole hitter must make contact and spray the ball around, the facts don’t support it. It’s more important to get on base because that’s what best leads to scoring runs. Hitting behind the runner might look good and fit “the book” approach, but sac-bunting and swinging away are a break-even proposition.

Look at it this way: Whether to sac-bunt or swing away is a matter of managing risk. If you sac-bunt, you’re less likely to get on base, but the outs you generate are not as bad because you advance the runner. If you swing away, you’re more likely to get on base and advance the runner additional bases, but you’re also more likely to generate a “bad” out that doesn’t advance the runner or, even worse, results in a double play.

On balance, sac-bunting and swinging away average out, just as Dunn’s approach to hitting averages out.

He makes considerably less contact than the average 2-hole hitter (he’s high-risk), but he’s high-reward because of all the bombs he hits - and he has an excellent on-base average, which means that even though he’s whiffing a lot, he more than offsets it with his high on-base average from walking a lot.

At No. 2, a .380 OBA guy who strikes out and is slow is better than a fast .315 OBA guy. Especially if Mr. .380 OBA hits 40 bombs.

Batting Dunn No. 2 gets him to the plate 50 more times in a season than batting him No. 5.

And why is such a big deal made about the 2-hole hitter advancing the runner, anyway? Last year, the Reds’ No. 2 hitter came to bat more than half the time (56 percent) with nobody on base.

Did you know that over the last two seasons Dunn has been right in line with the league average in terms of advancing runners from first base? (League average: 40 percent; Dunn, 39.7 percent)

The only Red with a comparable number of opportunities who advanced runners at a significantly higher rate was Encarnacion (45 percent), while Phillips - who might look more like a traditional 2-hole hitter to some - actually has advanced runners at a lower rate (38 percent) than Dunn.

And did you know that in only 35 more at-bats than Dunn with a runner on first, Phillips has hit into 24 more double plays?

Boy, there is a lot of good information in this section. Punches a big hole in several “theories” about holes in Adam Dunn’s offensive game, explains why OBA is more important than being a contact hitter, and even shows a little why Brandon Phillips isn’t a big favorite of the “stats guys”.

Wanted to list the last line in the article also…

Joel Luckhaupt, Justin Inaz and Greg Gajus contributed.