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by Jason Linden on January 27th, 2012 in 2012 Reds If there is one question mark on this edition of the Reds, it has to be Bronson Arroyo. Last year, he was miserable, but that came on the heels of consecutive years as very solid major league starting pitcher. In theory, he should be poised to rebound. His case of mono is behind him, hopefully the back is healed. There’s every reason to think he’ll bounce back.
The Reds just signed Jeff Francis to a minor league deal. That is great insurance. Francis was hurt and missed all of 2009, but other than that, his underlying numbers have been good. Remember, until last year, he pitched exclusively for the Rockies, so a lot of those ERAs are worse than they would be otherwise. His yearly WAR is surprisingly good.
I do not think Jeff Francis should be given a spot in the rotation. Let’s stop right there on that line of thinking.
However, I do think it’s going to be apparent from the start how good Bronson will be this year. He lost a lot off his fastball last year. That’s either going to come back or not. I just don’t think the Reds should kid themselves.
My proposal is this: Assume Bronson will be in the rotation. Don’t let on otherwise, but take a good hard look at those spring starts. Be honest with yourself. Is his stuff back or not? If it is, great. Let him take a run at it. Old Bronson is welcome on any team I’m a fan of. But if his stuff isn’t back, cut him loose. I know that’s a tough contract to eat, but if the Reds really want to win now, they have to be honest.
Francis is a decent pitcher. He’s not going to win a Cy Young, but he’d be the fourth or fifth best starter on the vast majority of major league teams. He’s a great back up plan. The Reds shouldn’t wait to use him until it’s too late.
Update: After I initially put this post together, more details came out about the Francis contract. It seems he can opt out by March 28 if he likes. This makes me wonder if the plan outlined above might have some chance of coming true.
by Steve Mancuso on January 25th, 2012 in 2012 Reds The Reds addressed their need for starting pitching depth tonight, as John Heyman reports that the Reds have signed starting pitcher Jeff Francis to a minor league deal. Zack Links at MLBTR provides some basic info about Francis’ 2011 season.
Francis spent 2011 with the Royals, posting a 4.82 ERA with 4.5 K/9 and 1.9 BB/9 across 31 starts. His 183 innings of work was his highest total since 2007, the season before he suffered a shoulder injury which required surgery and caused him to miss the entire 2009 campaign.
The 31-year-old Francis pitched six years for the Colorado Rockies. His best season was 2007 when he finished ninth in the NL Cy Young balloting. The last two years his FIP was substantially below his ERA. Bill James projects Francis for an ERA of 4.22 and FIP of 4.02 this year. His FIP last year was actually lower than his 2007 season.
Nothing but upside with this signing. Starting pitcher depth has been a concern after they traded Travis Wood for Sean Marshall. Francis was healthy enough to pitch 183 innings last year.
by Steve Mancuso on January 25th, 2012 in 2012 Reds The Reds tweeted that the organization and Nick Masset have come to terms on a two-year contract worth a reported $5.5 million in guaranteed money, plus incentives. Masset had filed for arbitration at $2.9 million for 2012 and the Reds had countered with $2.1 million.
John Fay is reporting that this deal extends Masset beyond his arbitration years and includes his first year of free agency. But Masset is a super-two player so he is eligible for four years of arbitration. He has just over four years of service time so this contract would buy out the final two years of team control. He is eligible for free agency after the 2013 season.
by Steve Mancuso on January 25th, 2012 in 2012 Reds The Reds have traded LH pitcher Jeremy Horst to the Philadelphia Phillies for SS/Utility infielder, Wilson Valdez. Mark Sheldon provides the essentials on Valdez at the plate:
Valdez spent the last two seasons in Philadelphia and batted .249 with a .294 on-base percentage, one home run and 30 RBIs over 99 games in 2011. A lifetime .243 hitter, the 33-year-old Valdez has also spent time with the White Sox, Mariners, Padres, Dodgers and Mets.
To summarize: Valdez is a poor hitter, has a low walk rate, hit one home run last year, is not a base-stealing threat, and is 33-years-old. And his fielding numbers are all over the place, with some evidence of serious deterioration last year.
Maybe Dusty Baker will be tempted to play him in only 50 games or so.
Seriously, is this really adding “depth” to the organization?
by Chad Dotson on January 25th, 2012 in 2012 Reds Wow, the market really collapsed for Francisco Cordero. It appears he is going to the Blue Jays…as a setup man.
I know I’m probably in the minority, but I’m a fully-paid member of the CoCo Fan Club. Sure, he had his occasional problems, and he frustrated me just as much as he did you guys. In the end, however, he was what you would call a “stand-up guy.”
After enduring the frustrating reign of Danny Graves in the Reds closer role, in which Graves blamed everyone but himself every time he failed, Cordero was refreshing. He never made excuses, and he never hid from the media. On top of that, he was very active in the Cincinnati community, and donated more to the Reds Community Fund than any other player.
Sure, we can argue all day long about how good Cordero was on the field. There are some guys, however, that you just like, regardless of statistics. For me, Francisco Cordero was one of those. I wish him nothing but the best of luck, and I choose to recall his years with the Reds fondly.
by Chad Dotson on January 23rd, 2012 in 2012 Reds Yeah! Best pinch-hitter ever!
Wait…what?
Ooohhhh…the Reds signed Willie Harris. That makes more sense, I suppose:
The Reds agreed to terms with utility player Willie Harris on a minor league contract, two sources confirmed to MLB.com on Monday.
Harris, who will be invited to camp as a non-roster player, can earn an $800,000 base salary if he makes the club and his overall salary can reach $1 million with incentives.
Not sure where (or whether) he fits on the roster, but Harris certainly plays a lot of positions. He has some on-base skills, too. Not a terrible choice for the 25th guy on the roster, as far as I’m concerned.
Of course, he doesn’t do anything that Todd Frazier can’t do better. Much better.
by Bill Lack on January 23rd, 2012 in Where Are They Now? Wily Mo Pena turned 30 today.
Happy birthday, big fella.
I would have guessed he was older…just something that I found surprising.
Talk about a guy whose agent didn’t do him any favors on his first contract…WOW!
by Tom Diesman on January 22nd, 2012 in 2011 Reds With the Reds stated pursuit of starting pitching for the top of the rotation this off season and the recent acquisition of Mat Latos, there has been lots of discussion in regard to the slotting of pitchers in the starting rotation. Many like to tag starting pitchers as being a #1, #2, #3, #4, or #5 starter to describe their level of ability as a starting pitcher. The trouble is, most really don’t have a clear understanding what a pitcher in each of those rotation slots really looks like. I’ve devised a method of defining what a pitcher in each of these rotation slots looks like that may hopefully clear up some confusion in future discussions of starting pitchers and the rotation slots that they are capable of filling.
This is the method I used to define starting pitcher rotation slots. I first extracted all of the starting pitching statistics for the 2011 season. I then sorted the data for all pitchers in each league by ERA and then by XERA. Then, for each league, beginning at the top of the list, I totaled up enough IP to account for a #1 SP for each team in the league. I totaled the statistics for these pitchers and divided by the number of teams in the league to come up with the average #1 SP for the league. I repeated this process with the remaining pitchers for each of the remaining rotation slots, #2 – #5. I determined the number of innings pitched for each rotation slot, trying to come as close to the following as I could.
Slot IP
#1 220
#2 210
#3 200
#4 190
#5 The Rest
Continue reading to see the data for the 2011 season.
Continue reading Rotation Slot Definitions for 2011
by Chad Dotson on January 21st, 2012 in 2012 Reds, Spring Training Pitchers and catchers report to spring training in four weeks. I’m not sure I can make it that long. It has been a long time since I was more excited about an upcoming Reds season. Anyone else feel that way?
Just needed to say that….
by Greg Dafler on January 20th, 2012 in 2012 Reds, Minors They’re “going all-in”, “trading away the farm”, and “emptying out their farm system”, but baseball scouts and analysts are still finding good Reds minor league prospects to compile various top prospect lists.
The latest list I saw earlier this week came from Baseball Prospectus. They characterize the Reds system “in 20 words or less: Considering the trades made for a 2012 run at the National Leaugue Central, there is still some strength in the system.”
Five-Star Prospects
1. Billy Hamilton, SS
2. Devin Mesoraco, C
Three-Star Prospects
3. Zack Cozart, SS
4. Robert Stephenson, RHP
5. Daniel Corcino, RHP
6. J.C. Sulbaran, RHP
7. Didi Gregorius, SS
8. Todd Frazier, UT
9. Neftali Soto, 1B
10. Henry Rodriguez, 2B
Two-Star Prospects
11. Yorman Rodriguez, OF
This is the first list I have seen that places Hamilton ahead of Mesoraco. Hamilton is listed as the second best prospect on most top prospect lists I’ve seen. Both players are the best prospects in the Reds organization heading into 2012. BP goes on to give the next 9 names on their depth chart, including Redleg Nation Spotlight Player, Tucker Barnhart at 18th.
Henry Rodriguez hasn’t universally cracked top 10 lists this offseason, but he has posted some solid minor league numbers during his professional career, especially for an infielder. His .308/.358/.445 slash line in 1821 plate appearances make him one of the better offensive infield prospects in the Reds upper minors. Rodriguez split his 2011 season between Bakersfield and Carolina last year at just 21 years old.
Baseball America confirms that the prospect talent level still exists in the Reds organization. In Jim Callis’s “Ask BA” article this week, Jim gives three of his twelve “2012 all-rookie team” spots to Reds players. Devin Mesoraco, Zack Cozart, and Todd Frazier (at 3rd base).
by Greg Dafler on January 19th, 2012 in 2012 Reds, Reds - General  Mike Leake (AP Photo/Chris Carlson) Tom Verducci released his annual Red Flag List of young pitchers who are at higher risk for either injury or decreased performance for the upcoming season. His list is developed from the premise that inning workloads for young arms should be increased gradually from one season to the next. Pitchers whose workloads are increased by too much in a season over the previous year are more likely to suffer from injury or have a setback in their performance the following year.
The parameters for Verducci’s list are fairly simple. The pitcher must be 25 years of age or younger, have thrown over 30 more innings than the previous year, and be pitching at the major league level. Minor league and post-season innings thrown are included in a player’s total innings.
Mike Leake, 23 last year, came in 11th on Verducci’s 2012 list of 14 MLB pitchers by throwing 36 2/3 more innings in 2011 than the previous year.
Most teams have employed some sort of innings limitations on their youngest pitchers, including sometimes shutting down starters before the season ends. There is no hard-and-fast rule about what the cutoff is to avoid this “Year After Effect”, and the answer certainly varies a little from pitcher to pitcher.
Still, Verducci’s Red Flag List has been right more often than it has been wrong.
The Effect has become easy to see over the years. In just the past six years, for instance, I flagged 55 pitchers at risk for an injury or regression based on their workload in the previous season. Forty-six of them, or 84 percent, did get hurt or post a worse ERA in the Year After.
While I certainly don’t like seeing a Cincinnati Reds starter on this list, I think there are several reasons not to be too concerned about Mike Leake in 2012. Thirty innings is a “rule of thumb”, and Leake was just barely over that mark. Some of those innings were minor league innings, which Verducci acknowledges aren’t as stressful on the arm. Without his 7 minor league innings thrown, Leake is just under the 30+ inning increase benchmark. The Reds were careful with Leake’s pitch count during the 2011 season. Leake only threw more than 110 pitches in a game 4 times and never more than 114 pitches. He exceeded 100 pitches in just 8 of his 26 starts.
Bigger concerns should weigh on the pitching coaches of 2011 NL Central playoff teams. St. Louis Cardinals starter Jamie Garcia had the 3rd largest increase in inning workload last year with 57 more innings thrown. Injury prone throughout his professional career, 2010 was the first time Garcia had made more than 25 starts in a season, and it’s only second time he had made more than 20 starts. Including the post-season, Garcia made 37 starts last year, nine more starts than the previous year. Milwaukee’s Yovani Gallardo is on the list for the second time in his career, this time at 7th. The first time he made the list in 2008, he missed almost the entire season with knee injuries.
by Chad Dotson on January 18th, 2012 in 2012 Reds Cleaning up some loose ends, we just wanted to note — for posterity — that Homer Bailey, Bill Bray, and Paul Janish all avoided arbitration and signed contracts with the Reds in the last day or two.
Homer will make $2.4 million, about two million more than he made last year. Bill Bray also got a significant raise, nearly doubling his salary to $1.4 million.
I’m not sure how much Janish will make and, frankly, I don’t think I want to know.
by Jason Linden on January 17th, 2012 in 2012 Reds Ryan Ludwick is the newest member of the Reds and I have some seriously mixed feelings about it.
On the one hand, the Reds needed outfield depth. On the other hand, this negatively affects the construction of the bench.
As I read the tea leaves, the following players are locks to make the team: Hanigan, Cairo, Francisco, Ludwick, and Janish (until they sign another SS). That’s the whole bench, and it’s not as good as one with Frazier in place of Ludwick. Frazier and Ludwick both figure to be about a league-average hitter, but Frazier has the better chance of being above average and plays more positions. Still, you need five guys who can play outfield, even if one of them is in triple-A. Injuries happen. Ludwick is not the problem.
The problem is that the Reds insist on carrying three infielders. Cairo and Francisco have almost exactly the same uses. Cairo is lock because he has a major league contract and is all veteran-y. Francisco will be there because he’s the only lefty off the bench (and, I believe, is out of options). Janish is there because Dusty wants a true shortstop as a backup.
I generally try not to live in a fantasy-land where the Reds are concerned. I know Frazier is going to end up in the minors. The Reds have never believed in him, after all. But if I were the Reds, I would do one of three things:
1. Send Janish down and let Frazier backup short. He’s played there before and can spell for a game or two.
2. Give Cairo his walking papers and Frazier his job.
3. Decide the team is fine with a six-man bullpen and carry a six-man bench.
I know none of these things is likely to happen, but I can’t help feeling the Reds are a better team when Frazier is the first back-up option for left, right, third, and first. He’s a good player with a lot of uses. I wish the Reds would give him a chance.
by Chad Dotson on January 17th, 2012 in Minors, RN Radio, Spotlight Players Redleg Nation Spotlight Player, and rising catching prospect, Tucker Barnhart joined Bill for an interesting conversation on this episode of Redleg Nation Radio.
You can listen with the player at the bottom of this post or right-click here to download the mp3 file to listen at your leisure. For links to all previous episodes of Redleg Nation Radio, check out the podcast’s home page.
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by Chad Dotson on January 16th, 2012 in 2012 Reds Good grief, I hope this turns out to be a false alarm, but…
Ken Rosenthal is tweeting that the Reds have agreed with left fielder Ryan Ludwick on a one-year deal, with a mutual option for 2013.
I guess it could be worse, but friends and neighbors, Ryan Ludwick isn’t as good as you think he is. Likely to be below average in 2012.
No reason to get upset about it; I think Chris Heisey is likely to be better in 2012, but the difference isn’t going to be huge. I just think it was an unnecessary signing…and I think people remember the Ludwick of age 29, not the current age 33 version. Not the same player.
UPDATE: One year for $2.5 million, according to reports.
UPDATE 2: Chris Heisey, age 26: 113 OPS+
Ryan Ludwick, age 32, 90 OPS+
Only way I really like this deal is if Ludwick is really just a glorified fourth outfielder on this team.
UPDATE 3: File this under “It could be worse”: Best thing about Ryan Ludwick is that he doesn’t spell his name “J-u-a-n P-i-e-r-r-e” or “R-i-c-k A-n-k-i-e-l.”
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